铁路特长隧道火灾应急救援问题研究

以长27.53km的向莆铁路戴云山隧道为研究对象,提出特长隧道的火灾防灾救援总原则,并从其结构、设计、安全管理等方面论述,重点针对火灾防灾救援隧道"定点"设置问题,从设置定点的必要性、定点位置、长度、定点的引导通道、引导通道与主洞的联络横通道、定点处的渡线设置等几方面进行研究,确定了戴云山特长隧道定点设置方案以及定点内的固定消防设施、通风排烟、紧急警报、诱导避难等设备设置,对促进完善我国铁路特长隧道的火灾防灾救援和安全疏散规划管理等具有重要的实践意义。     

Factors affecting the evacuation decisions of coastal households during Cyclone Aila in Bangladesh

Despite sincere efforts by concerned agencies and recent improvements in hazard warnings, thousands of at-risk people did not evacuate during Aila, a category-I tropical cyclone that struck southwestern coastal Bangladesh in 2009. This study investigated the responses of the people affected by Aila to cyclone warnings and associated evacuation orders, and unveiled behavioural aspects that explain why they did or did not comply with the evacuation orders. Utilising the primary data collected from 420 households living in the severely affected coastal sub-district Koyra, located in Khulna District, this study found that although more than 97% of the households had received cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Aila's landfall, only around 26% had evacuated. We also examined this study's empirical findings for factors that had dissuaded people from complying with the evacuation orders. Relevant test statistics along with results from principal component analysis suggested that the significant and systematic absenteeism of households from disaster preparedness training appears to be one of the key determinants that affected their evacuation decisions, along with factors related to warning messages, the attributes of cyclone shelters, risk perception, and socioeconomic aspects. A number of recommendations are also presented in this study for people at risk to improve their evacuation rates in future emergencies, not only to save their own lives but also to save their livestock.     

Modelling breakdown of industrial thermal insulation during fire exposure

The aging of many of the installations in the oil and gas industry may increase the likelihood of loss of containment of flammable substances, which could lead to major accidents. Flame temperatures in a typical hydrocarbon fire may reach 1100–1200 °C, which are associated with heat flux levels between 250 and 350 kW/m². To limit or delay the escalation of an initial fire, passive fire protection (PFP) can be an effective barrier. Additionally, both equipment and piping may require thermal insulation for heat or cold conservation. Previous studies have investigated whether thermal insulation alone may protect the equipment for a required time period, e.g., until adequate depressurization is achieved. The present study entails the development of a numerical model for predicting the heat transport through a multi-layer wall of a distillation column exposed to fire. The outer surface is covered by stainless-steel weather protective cladding, followed by PFP, thermal insulation, and finally an inner column of carbon steel of variable thicknesses. The model for the breakdown of thermal insulation is based on observed dimensional changes and independent measurements of the thermal conductivity of the insulation after heat treatment. The calculated temperature profiles of thermally insulated carbon steel during fire exposure are compared to fire test results for carbon steel with thicknesses of 16, 12, 6 and 3 mm. The model's predictions agree reasonably well with the experiments. The degradation of the thermal insulation at temperatures above 1100 °C limits its applicability as fire protection, especially for low carbon-steel thickness. However, the model predicts that adding a 10-mm layer of more heat-resistant insulation (PFP) inside the fire-exposed cladding may considerably extend the time to breakdown of the thermal insulation.     

Modeling the influence of precipitation and nitrogen deposition on forest understory fuel connectivity in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

Climate change models for California's Sierra Nevada predict greater inter-annual variability in precipitation over the next 50 years. These increases in precipitation variability coupled with increases in nitrogen deposition from fossil fuel consumption are likely to result in increased productivity levels and significant increases in forest understory fuel loads. Higher understory plant biomass contributes to fuel connectivity and may increase future fire size and severity in the Sierra Nevada. The objective of this research was to develop and test a model to determine how changing precipitation and nitrogen deposition levels affect shrub and herb biomass production, and to determine how often prescribed fire would be needed to counter increasing fuel loads. Model outputs indicate that under an increasing precipitation scenario significant increases in shrub and herb biomass occur that can be counteracted by decreasing the fire return interval to 10 years. Under a scenario with greater inter-annual variability in precipitation and increased nitrogen deposition, implementing fire treatments at an interval equivalent to the historical range of 15–30 years maintains understory vegetation fuel loads at levels comparable to the control.     

Differential aggressiveness between fire salamander (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Salamandra infraimmaculata</Emphasis>) larvae covaries with their genetic similarity

Responding differentially to kin and non-kin is known to be adaptive in many species. One example is the inclusive fitness benefits of reducing aggression toward closer relatives. Little is known, however, about the ability of animals to assess differential degrees of genetic relatedness and to respond accordingly with differential levels of aggression. In the present study, we tested whether aggressiveness between body mass-matched pairs of fire salamander (Salamandra infraimmaculata) larvae covaried with the genetic similarity between them. We quantified aggressiveness at three levels of genetic similarity by selecting pairs within and across pools from recently genotyped populations. We also assessed aggression between pairs of siblings. Aggression and associated injuries decreased as genetic similarity increased across the groups. These findings suggest that cannibalistic salamanders can assess their degree of genetic relatedness to conspecifics and vary their behavioral responses depending on the degree of similarity between them along a genetic relatedness continuum.     

Assessing drought-related ecological risk in the Florida Everglades

In the winter-spring of 2001, South Florida experienced one of the worst droughts in its recorded history. Out of a myriad of ecological concerns identified during this time, the potential for catastrophic peat fire and negative impacts to wading bird reproduction emerged as critical issues. Water managers attempted to strike a balance between the environment and protection of water supplies for agriculture and urban interests. It became evident, however, that a broad-scale, integrated way to portray and prioritise ecological stress was lacking in the Florida Everglades, despite this being considered a necessary tool for addressing issues of environmental protection. In order to provide a framework for evaluating various water management operations using real-time information, we developed GIS-based indices of peat-fire risk and wading bird habitat suitability. These indices, based on real physical, chemical, and biological data, describe two ecological conditions that help define the physical and biological integrity of the Everglades. In addition to providing continuous, updated assessments throughout the drought period, we incorporated predictive models of water levels to evaluate how various water management alternatives might exacerbate or alleviate ecological stress during this time.     

熟悉环境条件下的公共场所人员疏散仿真模型研究

建立能够准确描述熟悉公共场所环境人员真实疏散行为的仿真模型,用于指导编制开发具有较高仿真度的程序软件。该模型是在参考Helbing社会力模型建模思想的基础上,分析和量化影响熟悉环境人员疏散行为的主要因素,同时引入可翻越度概念区分不同属性障碍物对人员疏散行为的不同影响,并结合分子模拟原理建立,最后运用C#编程语言实现一个比较具有代表性虚拟场景的模拟,其仿真结果显示模型能够较为完整地体现熟悉环境人员的疏散轨迹及移动速度变化,适用于高铁客运站等公共场所。     

某地铁站突发事件乘客疏散行为分析研究（2）——行为分析

为了掌握突发事件下,乘客疏散行为反应;基于某地铁站突发事件区间隧道乘客紧急疏散事故案例,采用观察分析研究乘客在列车车厢内疏散行为特征、疏散路线规律、车厢内惊慌情绪分布及规律。结果表明:乘客疏散行为呈现波浪规律特征扩散传递;乘客惊慌逃散时呈现同年龄段同性别相互聚集现象;乘客惊慌逃散时呈现羊群效应;乘客惊慌逃散路线呈现圆弧现象;乘客惊慌情绪随着距离事故点的距离增加而减弱,呈负相关。为地铁设计人员、地铁安全评估、仿真模型、疏散应急预案提供数值参考,并对地铁站区间隧道存在的安全疏散问题提出优化建议。     

重大危险源企业与属地政府“一对一”应急预案编制研究

目前的企业应急预案与政府应急预案缺乏有效的衔接,重大事故发生时企业周边公众因不能及时疏散而造成严重伤亡,“一对一”预案的目标是在科学分析事故风险的基础上充分发挥属地政府在应急救援中的重要作用。对“一对一”应急预案的编制重点进行了分析研究,提出了编制框架和技术要求,并以某厂液氯液氨库房为例,通过事故后果、个人风险的定量计算,结合厂周边边环境情况规划了事故后的疏散范围、当地街道（地区）办事处的疏散工作片区划分及避难路线。“一对一”预案的编制有助于增强重大危险源企业与属地政府的应急联动,减少事故伤亡。