安全氛围对人群应急疏散行为的影响机制研究

为探究安全氛围对人群应急疏散行为的影响机制,基于一致性理论和“刺激—态度—行为”理论,构建包含安全氛围、应急疏散认知、应急疏散态度以及人群应急疏散行为的中介模型,并依据232份有效样本进行实证检验。结果表明:安全氛围对人群应急疏散行为具有显著的正向影响;应急疏散认知和应急疏散态度在安全氛围影响人群应急疏散行为的过程中均发挥正向的中介作用。     

Return migration after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster: the impact of institutional and individual factors

This paper explores two groups of factors, individual and institutional, that have influenced return migration since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan on 11 March 2011. Based on an analysis of statistical data on evacuees, a questionnaire completed by 289 people who migrated, and 19 semi-structured interviews with disaster-affected people, the research found (apropos of institutional factors) that while the lifting of the government's evacuation order has had no immediate effect on return decisions, the termination of monetary compensation and housing subsidies has had a significant bearing on them. As for individual factors, a strong sense of attachment to home and the possession of property, job obligations, and having family members in the home location are key determinants of return decisions. Moreover, the paper suggests that there could be differing opinions among Japanese government officials and evacuees regarding radiation exposure risk and the degree to which infrastructure and social services have been rehabilitated.     

昆明“3·29”森林火灾对防控林区火灾的启示

介绍昆明的“3·29”森林火灾基本情况。在对该火烧迹地进行3年跟踪调研的基础上,总结了该火灾对防控西南林区森林火灾的6点启示：（1）紫茎泽兰入侵区应慎修生土隔火带;（2）通过发挥山沟的阻火作用、营林防火、森林可燃物制炭等技术措施构建阻火林分;（3）重视森林火灾次生灾害;（4）开发新型森林灭火剂及施用技术;（5）适时运用以火灭火战术;（6）探索与集体林权制度改革相适应的森林消防对策。     

Recovery assessment of a refined-oil impacted and fire ravaged mangrove ecosystem

An assessment of the diversity and abundance of macrobenthic community in a refined-oil (petrol) impacted and fire-ravaged mangrove ecosystem within the vicinity of a marine receipt terminal facility (Atlas Cove) serving as a distribution and pump station for refined products was carried out. The mangrove ecosystem was subjected to massive petrol spillage from a leaking pipeline and eventual fire outbreak. Following rehabilitation activities, a recovery assessment of the impacted ecosystem was carried out. The field surveys revealed that the petrol leakage and fire outbreak resulted in a near complete destruction of the mangrove ecosystem around the Atlas Cove depot, with macrobenthic species diversity index ranging between 0−0.4, compared to 0.78−0.87 in the control stations. The dominant early arrivals or colonizers of the impacted stations areas were Clibanarius africanus and Callinectes amnicola. Early signs of recovery of the impacted area were observed within about two and a half (2 1/2) to three (3) months, based on diversity and abundance indices respectively. The period of early signs of recovery also coincide with an observed reduction in the total hydrocarbon content (THC) levels in the sediment collected from the impacted stations by about nine folds from 3.67 mg/kg to 0.42 mg/kg within 3 months. Despite the apparent signs of recovery, the need for long-term monitoring of the impacted stations was discussed.     

The significance of a small, level-3 'semi evacuation' hospital in a terrorist attack in a nearby town

Terrorist attacks can occur in remote areas causing mass-casualty incidents MCIs far away from level-1 trauma centres. This study draws lessons from an MCI pertaining to the management of primary and secondary evacuation and the operational mode practiced. Data was collected from formal debriefings during and after the event, and the medical response, interactions and main outcomes analysed using Disastrous Incidents Systematic Analysis through Components, Interactions and Results (DISAST-CIR) methodology. A total of 112 people were evacuated from the scene-66 to the nearby level 3 Laniado hospital, including the eight critically and severely injured patients. Laniado hospital was instructed to act as an evacuation hospital but the flow of patients ended rapidly and it was decided to admit moderately injured victims. We introduce a novel concept of a 'semi-evacuation hospital'. This mode of operation should be selected for small-scale events in which the evacuation hospital has hospitalization capacity and is not geographically isolated. We suggest that level-3 hospitals in remote areas should be prepared and drilled to work in semi-evacuation mode during MCIs.     

Experimental and numerical methodology for the analysis of fireproofing materials

In this study, a methodology for the assessment of fireproofing materials performance is presented. The methodology is based on a combined experimental and numerical approach. A modified version of the ASTM E162 standard fire test was used to expose specimens of steel board protected with different types of fireproofing materials to a steady radiation source. The temperature of the steel board was recorded with an infrared camera in order to evaluate the heat up due to the fire and characterize the protective performance. Experimental results were used to validate a simplified mono-dimensional model which allowed simulating more severe conditions and different protection configurations. A specific key performance indicator (KPI) was used for the quantitative assessment of fireproofing effectiveness. Finally, the professional career of Menso Molag, safety pioneer in the framework of hazardous materials transportation, was outlined.     

A study of the probability distribution of pool fire extinguishing times using water mist

Water mist, a replacement for Halon gaseous agents in fire fighting, has been studied for decades. However, the fire-extinguishing reliability of water mist is debated. For example, there are significant differences in extinguishing times between tests conducted under the same conditions, and water mists have difficulty extinguishing small fires. To date, no study of the probability distribution of extinguishing times has been reported. In this study a statistical analysis of the extinguishing time distribution of pool fires extinguished using water mist is presented. The fire sources were circular/square stainless steel pans with gasoline, diesel, ethanol or daqing RP-3 as fuel. Two types of extinguishing scenarios were observed. In one situation, the fire was extinguished via a blow off process, when the flames had not yet been suppressed. Flame cooling is the primary fire extinguishing mechanism; the mass loss rate and combustion heat of the fuel are two key factors. In the other situation, the fire was initially suppressed and subsequently extinguished after a long suppression stage. Surface cooling is the primary fire extinguishing mechanism; the flash point of the fuel is the key factor.     

南京长江隧道火灾数值模拟

以南京长江隧道为研究背景,运用火灾动力学模拟软件PYROSIM建立实体物理模型,并将空间划分为0.1 ×0.1 ×0.1m3的网格,对南京长江隧道火灾过程中的纵向通风进行模拟计算.定量分析了不同通风速率条件下火灾及烟气蔓延的规律,并得到隧道拱顶附近温度和烟气分布状况.模拟结果显示较小风速下烟气会产生回流,但随着风速增大烟气扩散速率随之加快,通过对3种不同风速的分析比较,选择3.0m/s纵向通风作为临界风速.进一步结合南京长江隧道现有的消防设施及应急救援系统,分析该临界风速下烟气温度对隧道结构和毒害气体对人员疏散救援的影响.结果显示此临界风速下隧道结构安全,且在疏散及时、救援有效的基础上,基本能保证人员疏散安全.     

Landscape--wildfire interactions in southern Europe: implications for landscape management

Every year approximately half a million hectares of land are burned by wildfires in southern Europe, causing large ecological and socio-economic impacts. Climate and land use changes in the last decades have increased fire risk and danger. In this paper we review the available scientific knowledge on the relationships between landscape and wildfires in the Mediterranean region, with a focus on its application for defining landscape management guidelines and policies that could be adopted in order to promote landscapes with lower fire hazard. The main findings are that (1) socio-economic drivers have favoured land cover changes contributing to increasing fire hazard in the last decades, (2) large wildfires are becoming more frequent, (3) increased fire frequency is promoting homogeneous landscapes covered by fire-prone shrublands; (4) landscape planning to reduce fuel loads may be successful only if fire weather conditions are not extreme. The challenges to address these problems and the policy and landscape management responses that should be adopted are discussed, along with major knowledge gaps.     

Development of a new chemical process-industry accident database to assist in past accident analysis

Past accident analysis (PAA) is one of the most potent and oft-used exercises for gaining insights into the reasons why accidents occur in chemical process industry (CPI) and the damage they cause. PAA provides invaluable ‘wisdom of hindsight’ with which strategies to prevent accidents or cushion the impact of inevitable accidents can be developed.A number of databases maintain record of past accidents in CPI. The most comprehensive of the existing databases include Major Hazard Incident Data Service (MHIDAS), Major Accident Reporting System (MARS), and Failure and Accidents Technical Information Systems (FACTS). But each of these databases have some limitations. For example MHIDAS can be accessed only after paying a substantial fee. Moreover, as detailed in the paper, it is not infallible and has some inaccuracies. Other databases, besides having similar problems, are seldom confined to accidents in chemical process industries but also cover accidents from other domains such as nuclear power plants, construction industry, and natural disasters. This makes them difficult to use for PAA relating to CPI. Operational injuries not related to loss of containment, are also often included. Moreover, the detailing of events doesn’t follow a consistent pattern or classification; a good deal of relevant information is either missing or is misclassified.The present work is an attempt to develop a comprehensive open-source database to assist PAA. To this end, information on about 8000 accidents, available in different open-source clearing houses has been brought into a new database named by us PUPAD (Pondicherry University Process-industry Accident Database). Multiple and overlapping accident records have been carefully eliminated and a search engine has been developed for retrieval of the records on the basis of appropriate classification. PUPAD doesn’t aim to replace or substitute the well established databases such as MHIDAS and MARS but, rather, aims to compliment them.