Effects of Harvest of Nontimber Forest Products and Ecological Differences between Sites on the Demography of African Mahogany

Abstract: The demographic impacts of harvesting nontimber forest products (NTFP) have been increasingly studied because of reports of potentially unsustainable harvest. Nevertheless, our understanding of how plant demographic response to harvest is altered by variation in ecological conditions, which is critical for developing realistic sustainable‐use plans, is limited. We built matrix population models to test whether and how variation in ecological conditions affects population responses to harvest. In particular, we examined the effect of bark and foliage harvest on the demography of populations of African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) in two contrasting ecological regions of Benin, West Africa. K. senegalensis bark and foliage harvest significantly reduced its stochastic population growth rates, but ecological differences between regions had a greater effect on population growth rates than did harvest. The effect of harvest on population growth rates (Δλ) was slightly stronger in the moist than in the drier region. Life‐table response experiments revealed that the mechanism by which harvesting reduced λ differed between ecological regions. Lowered stasis (persistence) of larger life stages lead to a reduction in λ in the drier region, whereas lowered growth of all life stages lowered λ in moist region. Potential strategies to increase population growth rates should include decreasing the proportion of individuals harvested, promoting harvester‐owned plantations of African mahogany, and increasing survival and growth by promoting no‐fire zones in gallery forests. Our results show how population responses to harvest of NTFP may be altered by ecological differences across sites and emphasize the importance of monitoring populations over the climatic range in which they occur to develop more realistic recommendations for conservation.     

IMPACTS OF SURFACE DRAINAGE ON GROUND WATER HYDRAULICS1

ABSTRACT: The current dredge and fill practices in locating canals along the periphery of wetlands in south Florida are transforming natural basins that originally had primarily slower subsurface drainage to ones that discharge larger quantities of water faster, via a surface drainage system. The objective of this paper is to develop an analytical technique and a numerical model in quantifying the difference of surface and subsurface runoff before and after the construction of drainage canals, and for delineating the effects of drains on channel level and regional water tables in adjacent areas in south Florida. The surface runoff model is formulated on the climatic water balance technique, and the ground water model is treated as a one dimensional transient phenomenon that forms a nonlinear flow problem. Analytical solutions are derived through problem linearization. These two models are coupled to estimate the impact of drainage canals on the adjacent water table drawdown.     

三峡库区滑坡稳定性评价研究

三峡水库蓄水后 ,库水位将在 14 5～ 175m范围内波动 ,动水压力和水的软化作用是滑坡失稳的主要因素。库区滑坡稳定性评价规范要求采用不平衡推力法 ,但在考虑库水位下降产生的渗透力时 ,对渗流浸润线的确定缺乏理论依据 ,更没有实测数据的支持。为此 ,笔者运用一维的布辛内斯克方程 ,研究三峡水库蓄水后库水位下降和暴雨作用下滑坡渗流浸润线的变化规律 ;建立了渗流作用下滑坡稳定性评价模型 ;分析降速、渗透系数、暴雨等对滑坡稳定性的影响。     

Age at first marriage and its relation to fertility in Bangladesh

The 2007 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey(BDHS)data are exploited to examine the effects of socioeconomic and demographic factors on age at first marriage linkage to reproductive behavior of Bangladeshi women.The mean age at first marriage of women is found to be 15.48 years.Multivariate logistic regression technique shows that place of residence,religion,region,wealth index,education,and occupation are significantly important factors for determining age at first marriage.The relationship between marriage and fertility suggests that women who marry at a younger age produce more children than women who marry late.Findings of this study show that if the age at first marriage of adolescents is increased by 1 year,the age at first birth is postponed by 0.728 years.With the increase in age at first marriage,the fecundability of women sharply rises,whereas the proportion of temporary sterility decreases.Although there is a positive association between age at first marriage and age-specific marital fertility rates,the total parity per woman at the end of the reproductive period is expected to reduce by 0.196 for each 1-year delayed marriage.     

Experimental research of flow rate and diffusion behavior of nature gas leakage underwater

In order to assess the potential risk of pipeline underwater leakage, a self-designed experimental setup is carried out to study the gas release rate and dispersion behavior in different release scenarios. A transparent organic glass tank with dimension of 1 m × 0.5 m × 0.5 m (height × width × length) was placed in a wind tunnel. The release pipeline made by stainless-steel with diameter of 25 mm were used to simulate for variation release depth. The different size and shape of leakage orifices in 1 mm, 3 mm, 5 mm in round and 3.5 × 2 mm, 7 × 1 mm in rectangle were designed for comparison. The medium of methane gas was released from the controllable cylinder. The variation parameters of flow rate and pressure were measured by a flow meter and pressure gauge respectively. A high speed camera was employed to recorded the phenomenology of dispersion characteristics and breakup process for a wide range of orifice size in the time-resolved images. The dynamic plume diameter on water surface was measured by a Vernier caliper placed above the water tank. The considered factors including orifice size, leakage pressure and water depth effect on gas flow rate and dispersion behavior was quantitative investigated. The fitting correlation between the gas flow rate and variation parameters can provide fundamental information for evaluation the hazard consequences of gas release in engineering application.     

灾级及其释义

本文提出了通用的灾级概念，并进行了具体的解释，可以作为各种灾害事故严重程度或等级大小的评价标志。     

基于Holt-Winters模型的济南泉域地下水资源保护研究

以济南名泉趵突泉历年的地下水位为研究对象,对2012年5月至2017年11月趵突泉地下水位波动规律进行分析,评价保泉形势,探索保泉供水的有效措施。通过模型的比选,最终确定利用HoltWinters指数平滑加法模型,从时间序列的角度分析预测趵突泉地下水位的变化趋势,并计算出了模型的拟合优度指标和拟合统计量。决定系数R2值为0.897,平稳的R2值为0.627,数值均较大且其余各项拟合优度指标均较好,说明模型的拟合效果整体精度较高。利用模型对2018年趵突泉的地下水位进行了预测并给出了预测值95%的置信区间,预测年平均水位为27.814 m,泉水位波动的峰值为28.291 m、谷值为27.329 m且谷值将出现于2018年的6月份,为近6年来的最低水位值,低于27.6 m的保泉红色警戒线,接近27.01 m的泉水停喷线。预测结果表明:2018年趵突泉将存在潜在停喷的危机,济南市的保泉任务依然严峻。为争取泉水持续喷涌,在此基础上提出了科学保泉建议和节水保泉措施,为济南市评判、预测、调整水系及地下水开采布局提供科学依据。     

基于安全规划要素表的化工园区安全规划研究

化工园区的蓬勃发展为我国经济发展做出了重要贡献,与此同时,近年来化工园区的安全状况不容乐观,事故时有发生,缺乏有效的安全规划是事故发生的原因之一,而安全规划依据不完善、操作性不强是化工园区安全规划难以有效落实的重要原因。针对此问题,笔者依据《中华人民共和国安全生产法》等相关法律法规、标准规范,并借鉴国内外化工园区安全规划的先进经验,提炼出化工园区安全规划核心要素,将安全规划要素表作为化工园区安全规划的直接依据,该依据内容具体、较为完整。同时,基于安全规划要素表,本文重点研究了在化工园区生命周期内各阶段应重点规划的内容,指导化工园区各阶段的安全建设以及应重点注意的问题,以期加强化工园区的整体安全。     

湖南省绥宁县黄桑坪自然保护区珍稀濒危植物长苞铁杉自然种群年龄结构及生态对策

通过对湖南省绥宁县黄桑坪自然保护区长苞铁杉的种群结构、特定时间生命表、生殖价分析、分布数量与环境因子的关系进行分析.结果表明:(1)种群结构数量具有"中间大,两头小"的特点,为衰退型种群,虽然种群有一定的幼龄个体,但死亡率高,35 a内长苞铁杉的年龄结构模型为:Age(a)=0.002 765(DBH)3-0.128 756(DBH)2+4.120 978(DBH)+13.439 846(R=0.991 2,F=2 654.48);(2)长苞铁杉种群既有r对策特征,又有K对策特征,该种群处于r对策→K对策的过渡阶段;(3)长苞铁杉的累积剩余生殖价(SRRV)和整个生活史的总生殖价(TRV)呈现出逐渐递减的趋势,而生殖投资策略(OREx)在整个生长过程中具有"n"型变化特征,说明长苞铁杉种群有实现生殖与恢复的可能,但能力有限.     

尾矿库溃坝离心机振动模型试验研究

为研究强震作用下尾矿库溃坝动力反应及溃坝演化规律,在清华大学离心机上进行尾矿库溃坝自重加载条件下离心振动模型试验。试验采用离心场图像采集系统、非接触位移测量系统及动态注水系统,采用Kobe波作为地震输入,测量模型加速度、孔隙压力、面板应力变形、坝体位移及其发展变化过程。试验结果表明:地震输入条件下的模型加速度近似均匀分布,尾矿库浸润线的位置随着水位的升高而逐渐上升,孔隙压力增大使得尾矿库坝体强度降低,但在水平地震下,仍能保持稳定。在蓄水过程中,尾矿库坝体产生明显的变形,出现了局部滑坡,但在地震作用下产生的变形较小,并且应变反应波形较为一致,表明尾矿库结构模型地震反应的整体性较好,具有良好的抗震稳定性。