城市客运交通系统可持续发展动力学模型

从系统论的观点出发，结合当前城市客运交通的现状，给出了城市客运交通系统所具备的动力学性质和特征。采用了协同学理论方法来分析城市客运交通大系统以及各子系统的问题。基于动力学基本原理建立了一个数学模型，探讨了城市客运交通系统资源开发利用与城市经济可持续发展之间的非线性关系及其调控策略。     

The European Council,the Council and the Member States: changing environmental leadership dynamics in the European Union

ABSTRACT

The leadership dynamics between the European Council, the Council and the Member States in European Union (EU) environmental policy since the 1970s are analysed. The puzzle is that, although the EU was set up as a ‘leaderless Europe’, it is widely seen as an environmental leader, albeit sometimes as a one-eyed leader amongst the blind. While differentiating between leadership types, it is argued that the European Council has the largest structural, the Council the most significant entrepreneurial, and the Member States the most important cognitive and exemplary leadership capacities. Most day-to-day environmental policy measures are negotiated by the Environment Council (in collaboration with the European Parliament). The European Council’s increased interest in high politics climate change issues is largely due to the EU’s global leadership ambitions. Member States have traditionally formed environmental leadership alliances on an ad hoc basis although this may be changing.     

酚类化合物在2-羧基苯甲酰基修饰的超高交联树脂上的吸附

合成了一种用来吸附和去除水溶液中酚类化合物的 2 羧基苯甲酰基修饰的超高交联吸附树脂 (ZH 0 1) ,并从动力学和吸附容量角度比较了XAD 4、AM 1和ZH 0 1分别吸附浓度为 80 0mg/L苯酚的情况。实验结果表明 ,ZH 0 1吸附剂有利于吸附苯酚、对甲苯酚和对硝基苯酚之类的酚类化合物。动力学和热力学研究都得到了相同的结果 :ZH 0 1对苯酚和对甲苯酚吸附是化学吸附的过渡状态 ,而对对硝基苯酚的吸附是一种物理吸附过程 ,并且显示了ZH 0 1表面均孔特性。苯酚在ZH 0 1上的小柱吸附研究表明了吸附穿透容量和总吸附量分别为 2 .38mmol/g和 3.0 5mmol/g ,溶剂甲醇对吸附在ZH 0 1上苯酚的脱附效果较好。     

Sex ratio dynamics and fluctuating selection pressures in natural populations of the Trinidadian guppy,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Poecilia reticulata</Emphasis>

In many species, population sex ratios have far-reaching consequences for a wide variety of population-level and behavioural processes and can directly influence sexual selection through differential effects on male and female mating behaviour. Although sex ratios are often treated as more or less stable population characteristics, recent theoretical evidence suggests that sex ratios fluctuate under many conditions, and that the amplitude of these fluctuations can be considerable. Few studies have attempted to quantify this variation in systems with prominent, sex ratio-dependent sexual conflict. One of the species with the greatest potential to integrate these factors in the wild is the Trinidadian guppy, Poecilia reticulata. In this study, we quantified natural sex ratio variation both as detailed longitudinal studies of focal guppy populations and as snapshot estimates across a range of freshwater habitats. In line with theoretical predictions, we expected to detect significant sex ratio variation over time. We also investigated the association between juvenile and adult sex ratios to quantify a possible compensatory feedback implied in standard models of sex ratio evolution. Our results confirm that population-level sex ratios in wild guppy populations have a range of dynamic features, with all four focal populations showing significant variation in sex ratio over time. The survey showed that juveniles were generally close to equal (50:50) sex ratios whereas 7 out of 11 adult sex ratios differed significantly from equality. We found no evidence that a surplus of juveniles of the locally rarer sex had been produced. The results indicate that sex ratios and hence the balance between sexual selection and sexual coercion is normally fluctuating in nature, despite juvenile ratios being close to equality.Communicated by J. Krause     

长期定位施肥对土壤磷、钾素动态变化的影响

23年定位施肥试验的结果表明，不施肥和单施氮肥的土壤，其有效磷质量分数迅速下降，前3年比播前降低约50％，自第7年开始比播前降低2／3左右，降至4-5μg／g之后处于稳定状态。土壤全磷质量分数始终保持在0．40-0．50g／kg的水平，有机磷略有增加。施有机肥以及有机肥与氮肥配施的土壤，其有效磷和有机磷质量分数增加显著。单施氮肥的土壤，其速效钾、缓效钾质量分数均降低，全钾质量分数变化不明显。在每年每公顷单施含钾150．0kg、300．0kg的有机肥或与138kg、276kg氮素配施的土壤中，以单施含钾300．0kg的有机肥的土壤的钾素盈余量最多，并随配施氮量的增加而盈余量减少。试验23年后的土壤，其钾素盈余量与土壤速效钾、缓效钾质量分数均有极显著的相关性，而与全钾质量分数的相关性小大。     

Temporal changes in wetland landscapes of a section of the St. Lawrence River,Canada

Historical aerial photographs (from 1946 through 1983) were used to study and describe the nature and extent of changes in wetland vegetation of a section of the St. Lawrence River and to evaluate the relative importance of water level, fire, and vegetational development as causal factors of these historical changes. Data were encoded and analyzed using a geographical information system, autocorrelation, and Mantel tests. Results show three temporal patterns in wetland dynamics. First, some wetland zones have been reduced by human activities (urbanization, landfilling, canal dredging). The second group consists of wetland areas that remain stable and do not change over time. They are generally protected sites artificially maintained by water-level control. A third situation has occurred in the Lake Saint-François National Wildlife Area, where no significant wetland losses were detected, but where landscape structure has changed greatly. Modeling with Mantel tests suggests that, in the latter case, these changes in wetland landscape are related to the suppression of burning (fires set deliberately by Indians) since the purchase of the territory by the Canadian federal government. This situation has caused rapid replacement of wet meadows byAlnus rugosa scrub and a possible decline in habitat diversity.     

基于实测数据的南京地铁换乘楼梯流量系统动力学分析

在实测数据的基础上,经过数据处理和分析,获得了地铁高峰运行期间换乘乘客在通道和楼梯口的速度-时间、密度-时间、流量-时间曲线。在所得统计曲线的基础上,根据系统动力学理论和方法,结合紧急疏散模型,用Vensim仿真软件建立了基于实测数据的地铁换乘系统动力学模型,并对仿真模拟后的数据进行分析,发现换乘楼梯流量随楼梯长度增加逐渐减小,并最终趋近2.5人/s;随楼梯宽度增加逐渐增大,并最终趋近5.1人/s。通过Origin软件拟合出两条曲线,并得出了流量与长度、宽度的定量关系。     

物流企业员工安全参与行为演化路径研究

为确定影响物流企业员工安全参与行为的因素与演化路径,推动对物流企业员工的安全监管,在员工和物流企业具有有限理性的前提下,从物流企业与员工之间的博弈机理出发,构建了员工安全参与行为的演化博弈模型。采用系统动力学方法分析模型的演化趋势,通过数值仿真分析物流企业员工安全参与行为及演化路径。结果表明,奖励力度、惩罚力度等参数影响着员工策略的变化,物流企业可加大对员工不积极参与安全行为的处罚力度,并适当提高奖励力度,从而提高员工的参与安全活动的积极性;物流企业还应建立奖励与惩戒相结合的管理制度,同时通过技术创新降低监督成本,实现对员工安全的有效监管。     

Integrating Landscape and Metapopulation Modeling Approaches: Viability of the Sharp-Tailed Grouse in a Dynamic Landscape

Abstract:  The lack of management experience at the landscape scale and the limited feasibility of experiments at this scale have increased the use of scenario modeling to analyze the effects of different management actions on focal species. However, current modeling approaches are poorly suited for the analysis of viability in dynamic landscapes. Demographic (e.g., metapopulation) models of species living in these landscapes do not incorporate the variability in spatial patterns of early successional habitats, and landscape models have not been linked to population viability models. We link a landscape model to a metapopulation model and demonstrate the use of this model by analyzing the effect of forest management options on the viability of the Sharp-tailed Grouse (  Tympanuchus phasianellus ) in the Pine Barrens region of northwestern Wisconsin (U.S.A.). This approach allows viability analysis based on landscape dynamics brought about by processes such as succession, disturbances, and silviculture. The landscape component of the model (LANDIS) predicts forest landscape dynamics in the form of a time series of raster maps. We combined these maps into a time series of patch structures, which formed the dynamic spatial structure of the metapopulation component (RAMAS). Our results showed that the viability of Sharp-tailed Grouse was sensitive to landscape dynamics and demographic variables such as fecundity and mortality. Ignoring the landscape dynamics gave overly optimistic results, and results based only on landscape dynamics (ignoring demography) lead to a different ranking of the management options than the ranking based on the more realistic model incorporating both landscape and demographic dynamics. Thus, models of species in dynamic landscapes must consider habitat and population dynamics simultaneously.     

A tool for estimating the contribution of water-soluble organic compounds to the particle mass and condensational growth in the atmosphere

In this theoretical investigation, we elucidated several factors governing the ability of organic, water-soluble vapours to participate into either the secondary organic aerosol formation or particle condensational growth in the atmosphere. The corresponding requirements for physico-chemical properties of the vapour were estimated. These estimates were also compared with the properties of several difunctional carboxylic acids identified in the atmosphere. Our analysis indicates that while many of the considered compounds are expected to contribute to the total particle mass in the atmosphere, their role in particle condensational growth process remains uncertain. This uncertainty emerges from the fact that the saturation ratio of an organic vapour does not alone determine its ability to act as a “nonvolatile” compound. Instead, the hygroscopic and chemical properties of the vapour, as well as the particle pH and size, have also to be taken into account.