A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO ASSESS FACTORS AFFECTING WATER CHEMISTRY USING MONITORING DATA1

ABSTRACT: A method to partition the variation in concentrations of water chemistry parameters in a river is described. The approach consists of fitting a family of curves for each chemical parameter. Each curve indicates the response of the parameter to river flow for a particular time period or location. An analysis of covariance is then used to identify statistically significant differences between curves. Such differences result largely from two factors: (1) the discharge of effluents and (2) river flow-concentration relationships. The deviations from the fitted curves indicate month-to-month variations unrelated to river flow that are controlled by factors such as temperature-related seasonal patterns. Underlying statistical assumptions are discussed with respect to water chemistry data. The technique is applied to a data set consisting of monthly samples of 22 water chemistry parameters from the Sulphur River of Texas and Arkansas. Several patterns of response to river flow and to two effluent discharges were revealed.     

利用曲线补偿变时溶出示差技术测定Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd初步探讨

本文利用曲线补偿，变时溶出示差技术提高了测定Ｃｕ、Ｐｂ、Ｚｎ、Ｃｄ的灵敏度、精密度和准确度，进一步改变了谱图的分辨率，避免了Ｏ２波的干扰     

应用散射光浊度法分析水中机械杂质

用散射光浊度法测定水样中机械杂质含量，灵敏度和准确度均高于目视法，且适用性强。     

分光光度法分析中增色、褪色反应标准曲线绘制的一般形式

介绍了在分光光度法分析中，增色反应和褪色反应的标准曲线绘制用朗伯-比耳定律可推导出一般数学表达形式。其中增色反应为Ai=kbCi，使用频率较高；褪色反应为A0-Ai=k′bCi，实际工作中应用较少。     

活性粉末混凝土(RPC)的断裂力学性能

在试验及观察的基础上,对活性粉末混凝土的断裂过程进行定性分析,给出活性粉末混凝土的裂纹发展原理及钢纤维的增韧机理,并分析其不同于普通混凝土的两个基本断裂特征。介绍了利用缺口梁三点弯曲试验确定混凝土拉伸软化本构方程的方法。基于Hillerborg模型,提出活性粉末混凝土的拉伸软化模型,根据三点弯曲断裂试验结果,确定出活性粉末混凝土的双线性拉伸软化曲线中的具体参数。据该软化曲线公式,计算出的活性粉末混凝土断裂能同试验得出的值相比,误差仅为0.9%。笔者得出的双线性软化曲线能较精确地反映活性粉末混凝土材料的断裂特性,可为今后进行RPC裂缝的分析和预测提供定量计算的依据,对于研究活性粉末混凝土的断裂能、尺寸效应等问题也很具意义。     

CURVE NUMBER HYDROLOGY IN WATER QUALITY MODELING: USES,ABUSES, AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Although the curve number method of the Natural Resources Conservation Service has been used as the foundation of the hydrology algorithms in many nonpoint source water quality models, there are significant problematic issues with the way it has been implemented and interpreted that are not generally recognized. This usage is based on misconceptions about the meaning of the runoff value that the method computes, which is a likely fundamental cause of uncertainty in subsequent erosion and pollutant loading predictions dependent on this value. As a result, there are some major limitations on the conclusions and decisions about the effects of management practices on water quality that can be supported with current nonpoint source water quality models. They also cannot supply the detailed quantitative and spatial information needed to address emerging issues. A key prerequisite for improving model predictions is to improve the hydrologic algorithms contained within them. The use of the curve number method is still appropriate for flood hydrograph engineering applications, but more physically based algorithms that simulate all streamflow generating processes are needed for nonpoint source water quality modeling. Spatially distributed hydrologic modeling has tremendous potential in achieving this goal.     

Volatilization behaviors of diesel oil from the soils

The volatilization of diesel oil, Shengli crude oil and 90 # gasoline on glass surface of petri dishes were conducted at the ambient temperature of 25℃. Diesel oil evaporates in a power manner, where the loss of mass is approximately power with time. 90 # gasoline evaporates in a logarithmic with time. Where as the volatilization of Shengli crude oil fit either the logarithmic or power equation after different time, and has similar R^2 . And the effects of soil type and diesel oil and water content on volatilization behavior in unsaturated soil were studied in this paper. Diesel oil and water content in the soils play a large role in volatilization from soils. Appropriate water helps the wicking action but too much water stops it. The wicking action behaves differently in four different types of soils in the same volatilization experiment of 18% diesel oil content and air-dry condition.     

Risk factors for motorcycle loss-of-control crashes

Objective: The present article identifies and assesses the effect of critical factors on the risk of motorcycle loss-of-control (LOC) crashes.

Method: Data come from a French project on road crashes, which include all fatal road crashes and a random sample of 1/20th of nonfatal crashes in France in 2011, based on police reports. A case–control study was carried out on a sample of 903 crashes for 444 LOC motorcycle riders (case) and 470 non-LOC and nonresponsible motorcycle riders (control). The sample was weighted due to the randomization of nonfatal crashes. Missing values were imputed using multiple imputation.

Results: Road alignment and surface conditions, human factors, and motorcycle type played important roles in motorcycle LOC crashes. Riding in a curve was associated with a 3-fold greater risk of losing control of motorcycle than riding in a straight line. Poor road adhesion significantly increased the risk of losing control; the risk increased more than 20-fold when deteriorated road adhesion was encountered unexpectedly, due to loose gravel, ice, oil, bumps, road marking, metal plates, etc. For motorcyclists, riding with a positive blood alcohol concentration (over or equal to the legal limit of 0.5 g/L) was very dangerous, often resulting in losing control. The risk of LOC crash varied for different types of motorcycle: Riders of roadsters and sports bikes were more likely to have an LOC crash greater than that of riders of basic or touring motorcycles. In addition, LOC risk increased with speed; a model using the square of the traveling speed showed better fit than one using speed itself.

Conclusion: The LOC crash factors related to riders, vehicles, and road infrastructure identified here were expected but were rarely identified and taken simultaneously into account in previous studies. They could be targeted by countermeasures to improve motorcyclist safety.     

1980年以来中国大宗作物空间格局变化分析

利用1980～2014年间的大宗作物(玉米、水稻、小麦、棉花、油菜)面积数据,以省级行政区为研究单元,采用多种数理统计和GIS空间分析技术,结合同期作物之间的竞争性用地关系,对全国上述五类大宗作物的空间分布格局及其变化特征进行分析.研究结果表明:玉米的空间分布相对较均衡;小麦的空间格局总的变化不明显但是省际分布最不均衡;棉花近30 a来空间格局变化极其显著,其面积重心从河南境内不断地向西北地区移动,目前位于甘肃省境内;油菜的面积重心自湖北境内不断地向南推移到湖南境内,水稻的面积重心则自江西境内逐渐向北移动到湖北境内.另外,部分区域的同期作物(如油菜与小麦、棉花与春玉米)空间格局变化存在明显的“消-长”关系,特别是在甘肃和内蒙,油菜小麦的面积变化有着极强的负相关性,其pearson系数低于-0.8.作物种植的成本收益变化是造成这些大宗作物空间格局变化的主要原因,城市化发展的程度、农民非农就业机会的高低、同期作物之间的比较效益差距等也是这些大宗作物时空格局产生变化的重要原因.     

混合污染物联合毒性评价模型曲线和实际浓度效应曲线之间交叉现象的研究进展

许多研究在使用评价模型进行混合物联合作用模式判别时发现,混合污染物的评价模型曲线和浓度效应曲线之间存在交叉的现象,表现为联合作用模式随混合物浓度发生变化。虽然交叉现象不断被报道出来,但是该现象形成机制的研究却非常欠缺。本文系统分析了文献中出现的交叉现象,探讨了交叉现象可能的形成原因和机制,提出了化合物的hormesis效应是导致交叉现象的关键因素:混合组分中某些化合物在低浓度时会对受试生物的某些蛋白、基因等的表达量产生刺激作用,影响其他化合物对机体产生的效应,从而改变混合组分的联合作用模式。该研究不仅为交叉现象形成机制的进一步探索提供了理论依据,还为混合物的生态毒理评估和环境风险评价提供理论指导。