第二阶梯湖泊富营养化自然地理因素及效应

为了明晰影响我国地形地貌第二级阶梯湖泊富营养化的主要自然地理驱动因素,为湖泊富营养化的有效治理提供参考,采用曲线回归方法分析了位于我国第二级阶梯的云南和新疆湖泊中Chl-a以及营养状态综合指数(TLI)与自然地理特征的相关性.结果表明,平均水深、海拔以及年均温与TLI指数具有较好的相关性,拟合模型分别符合三次/对数模型、二次模型和三次模型.Chl-a与年平均日照时数具有较好的相关性,拟合模型符合二次/三次模型.分析富营养化效应,藻类生长对透明度的影响以及营养物质对浮游藻类的生态效应(Chl-a/TP),结果发现,新疆湖泊中Chl-a与透明度呈倒数关系,云南湖泊中Chl-a与透明度呈幂函数关系;Chl-a与总磷的线性方程的斜率分别为177.595(云南)和222.758(新疆).影响我国第二级阶梯湖泊富营养化的主要自然地理驱动因素是湖泊的平均水深、海拔、年均温度及年平均日照时数,透明度与Chl-a含量的相关性以及营养物质TP对浮游藻类的生态效应存在区域差异.     

Seismic damage to pipelines in the framework of Na-Tech risk assessment

The structural integrity of pipelines undergone seismic waves is crucial for industrial installation and for the distributed transportation networks of gaseous and liquid fluids. However, it is nowadays proved that the definition of seismic vulnerability based on purely, structural-derived limit states or on return-to-service or even on the purely economic repair rate indications, is not sufficient for the holistic analysis of risks. On the other hand, detailed numerical studies based on full analyses (including fluid/soil/structure interaction) are too expensive for the aims of risk assessment and simplified methodologies are still needed.In this paper, a large database of earthquake-induced damage for steel and non-steel pipelines is presented. Each case was analyzed and collected from post-earthquake reconnaissance, seismic engineering reports and technical papers. The database may be adopted for the definition of specific vulnerability function (fragility curves), which are commonly implemented in multi-hazard analyses, and more in general for the assessment of Na-Tech risks (Natural events triggering Technological disasters).     

长江流域水污染事故时空特征及其环境库兹涅茨曲线检验

为了有效分析长江流域水污染事故发展阶段及变化趋势,采用1995—2010年长江流域水污染事故时序数据,运用GIS技术和环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型,探讨长江流域水污染事故发生的时空变化特点,并分析流域水污染事故发生与经济发展的关系。结果表明,1)时间上,长江流域水污染事故发生频数总体呈下降趋势;2)空间上,长江流域水污染事故的发生主要集中在广西、湖南、四川、浙江等省,而西藏、青海、上海等省市发生频数较低;3)长江流域人均GDP和工业总产值等经济发展指标与事故发生频数之间呈现"N"形EKC曲线特征。长江流域水环境事故发生频数与经济发展之间未表现出期望的倒"U"形变化关系,表明水污染事故频数增加或降低并非经济发展的必然结果,未来流域水污染事故风险仍存在巨大的不确定性,必须采用先进政策、制度和技术才可有效减少污染事故的发生。     

湿热环境中汽车板表面腐蚀萌生与表面轮廓特征的关系

目的探究储运过程中深冲用汽车板表面轮廓对其耐蚀性能的影响。方法在模拟的高温高湿腐蚀环境中研究两类无间隙原子钢在其腐蚀初期表面锈点的萌生规律,并采用白光干涉轮廓仪对钢板的表面形貌特征进行表征,探究影响储运过程中汽车板耐蚀性能的表面状态因素。结果仅通过平均粗糙度Sa的差异无法区分具有不同表面轮廓特征的汽车板,因此也无法使用平均粗糙度参数Sa预估汽车板的耐蚀性能。在锈点萌生初期,汽车板表面轮廓的最大高度Sz和最大峰高Sp值的大小直接影响表面电化学活性。在锈点扩展阶段,汽车板表面波峰聚集程度的作用对锈点扩展的影响更为显著。结论 Sz和Sp越大,锈点萌生的速度越快;波峰聚集程度越高,锈点扩展速度越快。该研究结果为提高钢板表面耐蚀性能提供了一条新的思路。     

经济发展与城市蔓延的Logistic曲线假说及其验证——基于华东地区典型城市的考察

经济发展与城市蔓延一直是学者研究的热点,其假说大都建立在发展与保护矛盾不断激化的基础之上,论文基于国内外城市发展轨迹的判断,提出新的研究假说:经济发展与城市蔓延存在Logistic曲线关系,并选择华东地区典型城市进行实证检验。结果表明:第一,国外(区域)经济发展由快速城市化、工业化初级阶段过渡到高级或后工业化阶段进程中,对城市蔓延扩张的依赖程度逐渐减弱;第二,中国1978—2003年间经济发展与城市蔓延增长具有周期性波动特征,2003年以后两者波动出现明显脱钩或分歧;第三,实证结果显示,上海、南京、无锡和徐州的第二三产业GDP在分别达到2.91×10¹¹、1.02×10¹¹、4.43×10¹⁰、9.42×10¹⁰元时,城市蔓延扩张出现拐点,验证了研究假说,其规模上限分别为8.99×10⁴、6.01×10⁴、2.20×10⁴、3.43×10⁴ hm²。研究结论能够为我国城市蔓延治理和公共政策调整提供科学依据和直接参考。     

Probabilistic ecological risk assessment for three chlorophenols in surface waters of China

Individual and combined assessment of risks of adverse effects to aquatic ecosystems of three chlorophenols (CPs), including 2,4-dichlorophenol (2,4-DCP), 2,4,6-trichlorophenol (2,4,6-TCP) and pentachlorophenol (PCP), were conducted. A probabilistic approach based on the concentrations of CPs in surface waters of China was used to determine the likelihood of adverse effects. The potential risk of CPs in surface waters of China was determined to be of concern, especially PCP and mixtures of CPs. The risks of adverse effects were examined as the joint probabilities of exposure and response. The joint probability for PCP was 0.271 in the worst case and 0.111 in the median case, respectively. Based on the cumulative probability, 5% of aquatic organisms included in the assessment would be affected 21.36% of the time in the worst case and 5.99% of the time in median case, respectively. For the mixtures of CPs, the joint probability were 0.171 in the worst case and 0.503 in median case, respectively and 5% of species would be affected 49.83% of the time for the worst case and 12.72% in the median case, respectively. Risks of effects of the individual CPs, 2,4-DCP and 2,4,6-TCP were deemed to be acceptable with a overlapping probability of < 0.1 with 5% of species being affected less than 4% of the time.     

三峡水库水位上升对香溪河流域典型滑坡的影响分析

在三峡水库蓄水后,香溪河流域众多滑坡出现变形失稳现象。白家堡滑坡、耿家坪滑坡、白马滩滑坡在蓄水后的变形特征各不相同。对库水位上升后3个滑坡的变形特征及其渗透性进行了比较研究,表明影响滑坡响应时间的主要因素是滑体的渗透性。以白家堡滑坡为例,利用摩根斯坦-普赖斯法,对不同c、值,进行75~175 m水位线的稳定性系数演算,发现各c、值不同水位线下稳定性系数曲线的变化规律有2种类型,即下降—平直型和下降—上升型,这种变化规律与浸水部位密切相关。     

Economic Growth and Marine Biodiversity: Influence of Human Social Structure on Decline of Marine Trophic Levels

Abstract:  We assessed the effects of economic growth, urbanization, and human population size on marine biodiversity. We used the mean trophic level (MTL) of marine catch as an indicator of marine biodiversity and conducted cross-national time-series analyses (1960–2003) of 102 nations to investigate human social influences on fish catch and trends in MTL. We constructed path models to examine direct and indirect effects relating to marine catch and MTL. Nations' MTLs declined with increased economic growth, increased urbanization, and increased population size, in part because of associated increased catch. These findings contradict the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, which claims that economic modernization will reduce human impact on the environment. To make informed decisions on issues of marine resource management, policy makers, nonprofit entities, and professional societies must recognize the need to include social analyses in overall conservation-research strategies. The challenge is to utilize the socioeconomic and ecological research in the service of a comprehensive marine-conservation movement.     

山东省环境库兹涅茨曲线的检验与分析

环境库兹涅茨曲线假设反映的是经济增长与环境质量之间呈现倒U型的曲线关系.在对二次函数、三次函数以及对数函数等3种模型比较分析的基础上,考察了山东省的环境库兹涅茨曲线假设.结果表明:二氧化硫排放量和烟尘排放量比较符合倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线,转折点分别为人均GDP 5 029和1 881元,发生的年代分别为1994—1995年和1990—1991年;工业废水排放量和工业固体废物产生量仍处于上升阶段,曲线的转折点还未达到.政策分析表明,建立官员环境保护考核机制,不仅与环境保护投资的增加存在时间上的一致性,而且在污染物排放防治上起到了明显的作用.      

弯道路段集重型大型货物运输车辆通过宽度研究*

为研究集重型大型货物运输车辆在弯道路段不同圆曲线半径条件下的通过宽度,基于Ackerman转向原理建立集重型大型货物运输车辆转弯模型,研究道路圆曲线路段车辆通过所需道路宽度与牵引车前轴中心运行半径和液压轴线挂车长度间的关系;得到车辆外廓弯道最外侧点的判别方法,以及牵引车前轴中心运行半径、液压轴线挂车长度对车辆通过所需道路宽度的影响强度、相对优势影响区域及三者间的分段函数关系;得到典型车辆通过不同半径弯道所需道路宽度与牵引车前轴中心运行半径间的关系。结果表明:计算方法及结果可为大型货物运输道路规划设计和集重型大型货物的运输路径优选提供理论依据。