吉林省COD排放环境学习曲线及减排潜力分析

基于2000-2009年吉林省9个市（州）COD排放量,对人均COD排放量和万元GDPCOD排放量的区域分布格局及其成因进行了定量分析;同时,基于2000-2009年COD排放量和人均GDP,建立了吉林省万元GDPCOD排放量随人均GDP变化的环境学习曲线,分析了2000-2009年COD排放环境负荷变化及减排潜力,对《吉林省国民经济和社会发展第十二五个五年规划纲要》确定的削减8．8％目标的可达性进行了预测。结果表明：在吉林省国民经济和社会发展指标条件下,目标值和预测值的误差小于2％,能够实现COD削减的约束性指标。     

Q235钢在模拟自然环境下失效行为的电化学研究

采用电化学阻抗谱(EIS)和阴极极化曲线研究了Q235钢在薄液膜条件下的大气腐蚀过程,探讨了液膜厚度、Cl-和腐蚀产物对Q235钢失效过程的影响.结果表明液膜厚度会影响O2的扩散过程,并进一步影响腐蚀速率;C1～环境下,Q235钢腐蚀产物分成2层,外层为多孔疏松层,内层主要为α-FeOOH和γ -FeOOH组成的锈层,...     

An evaluation of environmental factors affecting species distributions

Many different models can be built to explain the distributions of species. Often there is no single model that is clearly better than the alternatives, and this leads to uncertainty over which environmental factors are limiting species’ distributions. We investigated the support for different environmental factors by determining the drop in model performance when selected predictors were excluded from the model building process. We used a paired t-test over 37 plant species so that an environmental factor was only deemed significant if it consistently improved the results for multiple species. Geology and winter minimum temperatures were found to be the environmental factors with the most support, with a significant drop in model performance when either of these factors was excluded. However, there was less support for summer maximum temperature, as other environmental factors could combine to produce similar model performance. Our method of evaluating environmental factors using multiple species will not be capable of detecting predictors that are only important for one or two species, but it is difficult to distinguish these from spurious correlations. The strength of the method is that it increases inference for factors that consistently affect the distributions of many species. We discourage the assessment of models against predefined benchmarks, such as an area under the curve (AUC) of more than 0.7, as many alternative models for the same species produce similar results. Therefore, the benchmarks do not provide any indication of how the performance of the selected model compares to alternative models, and they provide weak inference to accept any selected model.     

天山云杉的种群动态

选择我国新疆境内天山山脉从西到东处于不同经度位置5个地区(昭苏、巩留、乌苏、乌鲁木齐和哈密)的天山云杉林进行垂直样带调查,采用静态生命表法,分析5个地区天山云杉种群的存活曲线和死亡率曲线,为天山云杉种群数量统计和生态保护提供依据.结果表明:其存活曲线为DeeveyⅡ型,表明天山云杉种群处于动态稳定状态;5个地区天山云杉种群均有两个死亡率曲线高峰,死亡高峰主要出现在幼年时期、近成熟前期、成年阶段和老年期.种群的死亡强度和死亡高峰在时间格局上各地区有明显的差异.图2表6参31     

微生物堵塞过程中生物膜生长特征对多孔介质渗流特征影响

为研究回灌水刺激下生物膜在砂柱中的生长规律,并分析生物膜生长特征对堵塞介质典型渗流特征的影响,采用室内土柱实验方法,供给营养液刺激砂柱内生物膜生长,模拟入渗介质生物堵塞的过程,监测介质渗透系数的变化,并开展不同回灌时长下介质水分吸持实验和弥散试验,并对其内生物膜形态进行表征.结果显示,在0~5h时,渗透系数呈先下降后回升趋势;在回灌至18h前,渗透系数急剧衰减,水力弥散系数明显增大,水分吸持能力的变化并不明显;18h后渗透系数降低速率减缓,水分吸持能力明显升高,溶质运移过渡到以弥散作用为主导机制.综上,可将生物膜在介质内的生长分为三个阶段:菌适应期,接种菌体并未生长繁殖,单纯由于菌体的流入与流出引起渗透系数的变化;菌体大量生长繁殖期,大量生长繁殖的菌体占据了部分介质孔隙体积;胞外聚合物大量分泌期,逐渐形成具有透水性的生物膜,生物膜的生长与回灌水提供的养分形成动态平衡.     

黄冈市大气挥发性有机物污染特征、来源及对臭氧生成的影响

基于黄冈市城区大气挥发性有机物（VOCs）离线采样数据和常规空气污染物、气象在线监测数据,分析了黄冈市大气VOC组分和体积分数特征,并利用正交矩阵因子分解（PMF）模型和耦合MCM机制的光化学反应箱式模型（PBM-MCM）分别分析了臭氧（O₃）污染高发期VOCs的来源及臭氧生成敏感性.结果表明,φ（TVOCs）平均值为（21.57±3.13）×10^-9,且呈现出冬春高、夏秋低的季节性特征,其中烷烃（49.9%）和烯烃（16.4%）的占比最大.PMF解析结果显示黄冈市大气VOCs主要来源为：燃料燃烧源（27.8%）、机动车排放源（19.9%）、溶剂使用源（15.7%）、工业卤代烃排放源（12.1%）、化工企业排放源（10.5%）、自然源（7.8%）和柴油车排放源（6.2%）.在人为源中,溶剂使用、燃料燃烧和化工企业排放的VOCs对大气环境中O₃生成的贡献较大,贡献了O₃生成的60.9%,故对O₃污染防控应优先管控这3种人为源.通过相对增量反应性（RIR）和经验动力学方法（EKMA）曲线分析,观测期间黄冈市O₃生成处于VOCs控制区,且间/对-二甲苯、乙烯、1-丁烯和甲苯等VOCs对O₃生成比较敏感,应重点削减以上VOCs的排放.     

Cu-Mn-Ce/分子筛催化剂吸附甲苯后的微波原位再生及床层温度分布探究

实验考察了Cu-Mn-Ce/分子筛催化剂吸附甲苯后的微波原位再生效果,分析了固定床温度场分布及催化剂多次再生后的吸附穿透曲线,并对Cu-Mn-Ce/分子筛催化剂进行了比表面积和表面形貌的表征测试.研究表明,微波功率117 W、空气流速0.5 m3·h-1和催化剂用量800 g下,吸附催化剂的微波再生效果良好,脱附甲苯在催化剂表面被氧化降解并使催化剂恢复吸附能力.再生时床层温度水平截面上由内向外缓慢降低,垂直方向从下而上逐渐升高,并在床层中上部达到最高的250~350℃.6次吸附穿透曲线和催化剂表征证实,微波原位再生时催化剂表面存在烧结与团聚现象,催化剂的比表面积和微孔体积有所减少,从而缩短了催化剂的穿透时间;微波再生2次后,催化剂结构趋于稳定,吸附穿透时间维持在70 min左右.研究发现,催化剂表面形貌和孔径的变化与床层温度场的分布呈正相关关系.     

Predicting Offenses and Crashes from Young Drivers' Offense and Crash Histories

Previous research has indicated that offenses are better predictors of subsequent crashes than crashes themselves. We examined this hypothesis for 13,800 young beginning drivers in Michigan for up to nine years during the initial years of driving. Our analyses indicated that previous-year offenses are better predictors of both subsequent-year offenses and crashes than either previous-year crashes or at-fault crashes. This finding also held for the apparently higher-risk subset of subsequent-year serious offenses and at-fault crashes. Although there were no gender differences in the predictive power of crashes, it was found that the predictive power of previous offenses to subsequent serious offenses was significantly stronger for women than for men. The predictive power of incidents appeared to increase somewhat with increasing driving experience, suggesting that early incidents may be more attributable to inexperience, a characteristic of all beginning drivers, while later incidents may be more attributable to individual differences.     

The Design of a New Energy-conservation Type Solar-powered Lighting System Using a High‐pressure Sodium Lamp

This study designs and applies a new energy-conservation type solar-powered lighting system using a high-pressure sodium lamp to areas not having any utility company's electricity. The proposed system uses a zero-voltage-switching (ZVS) DC/DC converter in the batteries’ charge circuit to reduce the switching loss for a higher charging efficiency. Said system also adopts the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) technique to maximize the solar panels’ photovoltaic conversion capability. When dark, the batteries in the proposed system will discharge, with a raised voltage, through a push-pull DC/DC converter; said voltage, as the input voltage of the series-parallel resonant inverter, will be regulated to dim the lamp. To enable the efficient usage of the batteries’ stored energy capacity, this control scheme of the proposed system may adjust the night-time discharge time lengths, according to season difference, and compute the usable capacity for the load, according to the batteries’ charged voltage, so as to select a suitable pre-scheduled light-dimming curve for the lamp to achieve energy conservation for the batteries and continuity in lighting when dark.     

Response of soil CO2 efflux to precipitation manipulation in a semiarid grassland

Soil CO_2efflux(SCE) is an important component of ecosystem CO_2 exchange and is largely temperature and moisture dependent, providing feedback between C cycling and the climate system. We used a precipitation manipulation experiment to examine the effects of precipitation treatment on SCE and its dependences on soil temperature and moisture in a semiarid grassland. Precipitation manipulation included ambient precipitation, decreased precipitation(- 43%), or increased precipitation(+ 17%). The SCE was measured from July2013 to December 2014, and CO_2 emission during the experimental period was assessed.The response curves of SCE to soil temperature and moisture were analyzed to determine whether the dependence of SCE on soil temperature or moisture varied with precipitation manipulation. The SCE significantly varied seasonally but was not affected by precipitation treatments regardless of season. Increasing precipitation resulted in an upward shift of SCE–temperature response curves and rightward shift of SCE–moisture response curves,while decreasing precipitation resulted in opposite shifts of such response curves. These shifts in the SCE response curves suggested that increasing precipitation strengthened the dependence of SCE on temperature or moisture, and decreasing precipitation weakened such dependences. Such shifts affected the predictions in soil CO_2 emissions for different precipitation treatments. When considering such shifts, decreasing or increasing precipitation resulted in 43 or 75% less change, respectively, in CO_2 emission compared with changes in emissions predicted without considering such shifts. Furthermore, the effects of shifts in SCE response curves on CO_2 emission prediction were greater during the growing than the non-growing season.