Assessing the strength of climate and land-use influences on montane epiphyte communities

Epiphytes, air plants that are structurally dependent on trees, are a keystone group in tropical forests; they support the food and habitat needs of animals and influence water and nutrient cycles. They reach peak diversity in humid montane forests. Climate predictions for Central American mountains include increased temperatures, altered precipitation seasonality, and increased cloud base heights, all of which may challenge epiphytes. Although remaining montane forests are highly fragmented, many tropical agricultural systems include trees that host epiphytes, allowing epiphyte communities to persist even in landscapes with lower forest connectivity. I used structural equations models to test the relative effects of climate, land use, tree characteristics, and biotic interactions on vascular epiphyte diversity with data from 31 shade coffee farms and 2 protected forests in northern Nicaragua. I also tested substrate preferences of common species with randomization tests. Tree size, tree diversity, and climate all affected epiphyte richness, but the effect of climate was almost entirely mediated by bryophyte cover. Bryophytes showed strong sensitivity to mean annual temperature and insolation. Many ferns and some orchids were positively associated with bryophyte mats, whereas bromeliads tended to establish among lichen or on bare bark. The tight relationships between bryophytes and climate and between bryophytes and vascular epiphytes indicated that relatively small climate changes could result in rapid, cascading losses of montane epiphyte communities. Currently, shade coffee farms can support high bryophyte cover and diverse vascular epiphyte assemblages when larger, older trees are present. Agroforests serve as valuable reservoirs for epiphyte biodiversity and may be important early-warning systems as the climate changes.     

Analysis of landscape pattern: towards a ‘top down’ indicator for evaluation of landuse

Landscapes as highly complex systems are subject to many different assessment procedures despite the fact that their development is not really predictable. Every synthetic model of landscape functioning will probably fail in demonstrating the landscape behaviour due to the decreasing precision and relevance of its output with increasing complexity. Two approaches are presented here which use deductive methods to describe landscape behaviour as indicated by its spatial structure. The one is a correlative concept which is characterized by all the advantages and disadvantages of statistical regression methods. It is strongly dependent on data quality. In the second study an expert knowledge system is developed. Fuzzy set theory is applied to transfer rules of landscape ecological experience to image parameters derived from satellite data. Both approaches are compared regarding the problems faced in the work during implication. Theoretical restrictions and the applicability in landscape assessment is discussed.     

Effect of Information Availability on Assessment and Designation of Species at Risk

Abstract: Information required to evaluate the extent to which species are at risk of extinction is usually limited and characterized as highly uncertain. In this context, we define information availability as the presence or absence of information used to determine the value of an ecological variable. We examined which of three hypothetical approaches best matched how levels of risk are assigned to species: (1) precautionary approach in which analysts designate levels of risk regardless of the amount of information available, (2) worst‐case approach in which analysts assign the maximum level of risk possible from the criteria, and (3) insurance approach in which analysts assign poorly known species to a high‐risk category when little information is available. We used the quantitative assessment criteria of the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) as a case study. We created a binary (0/1) matrix of all 2.4192 × 10⁷ logical combinations of available information for the 14 ecological variables included in the quantitative criteria. We processed each combination of information availability represented in the matrix with a computer algorithm designed to emulate COSEWIC decision‐making rules. Low information availability was associated with a relatively high frequency of not being able to assign a candidate taxon to a risk category, which does not follow the precautionary principle. Information availability and the level of risk assigned to species were directly related, which is associated with the worst‐case approach, and counter to the insurance approach. Our results suggest that information availability can have a major effect on the level of risk assigned to a species. We recommend a conscious determination of whether such effects are desired, and we recommend the development of methods to explicitly characterize and incorporate information availability and other sources of uncertainty in decision‐making processes.     

基于熵权的防灾工程项目融资方式评价决策模型

对防灾工程项目融资方式的评价决策问题进行了讨论,分析了项目评价决策中的客观信息和评价决策者个人经验的主观信息,提出在量化打分的基础上整合为一个复合权重集,建立了基于熵权的防灾工程项目融资方式评价模型和方法。通过实例计算,结果表明该模型在融资方式的评价、优劣排序和选择方面具有较强的可行性和可操作性。     

球罐内甲烷气体泄漏形成的可燃气云规律研究

基于计算流动动力学(CFD)方法,以Fluent软件为平台,以大连新港某球罐区为研究对象,建立真实尺寸的球罐内可燃气体泄漏扩散数值模拟模型,分析甲烷扩散规律及可燃气云尺度.提出采用可燃气云稳定状态时的水平方向长度Lmax、竖直方向高度Dmax作为尺度的衡量参数,用以评估可燃气云区域的大小.探讨初始压力、泄漏孔径、正风向风速对尺度参数Lmax和Dmax的影响规律,并对比可燃气体种类对尺度参数的影响.结果表明:甲烷以临界状态通过泄漏孔时,初始压力对Lmax和Dmax的影响可以忽略;Lmax和Dmax随泄漏孔径增加而线性增大,但随正风向风速增加而线性减小;相同泄漏扩散条件下,氢气泄漏引起的可燃气云范围最大,甲烷次之,丙烷最小.     

Risk quantification framework of hydride-based hydrogen storage systems for light-duty vehicles

This study aims to develop a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework for on-board hydrogen storage systems in light-duty fuel cell vehicles, with focus on hazards from potential vehicular collision affecting hydride-based hydrogen storage vessels. Sodium aluminum hydride (NaAlH₄) has been selected as a representative reversible hydride for hydrogen storage. Functionality of QRA framework is demonstrated by presenting a case study of a postulated vehicle collision (VC) involving the onboard hydrogen storage system. An event tree (ET) model is developed for VC as the accident initiating event. For illustrative purposes, a detailed FT model is developed for hydride dust cloud explosion as part of the accident progress. Phenomenologically-driven ET branch probabilities are estimated based on an experimental program performed for this purpose. Safety-critical basic events (BE) in the FT model are determined using conventional risk importance measures. The Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) technique has been employed to propagate the aleatory (i.e., stochastic) and epistemic (i.e., phenomenological) uncertainties associated with the probabilistic ET and FT models. Extrapolation of the proposed QRA framework and its core risk-informed insights to other candidate on-board reversible and off-board regenerable hydrogen storage systems could provide better understanding of risk consequences and mitigation options associated with employing this hydrogen-based technology in the transportation sector.     

Thermal radiation from vapour cloud explosions

The current study estimates the radiation flux emitted from hot extended gas clouds characteristic of vapour cloud explosions along with the corresponding level of irradiance posed on particles suspended in the unburnt part of the cloud ahead of an advancing flame front. The data presented permits an assessment of the plausibility of combustion initiation by such particles due to forward thermal radiation. The thermal radiation will depend on the emissivity of the burned volume, which relates to the concentration of gaseous and particulate combustion products. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to account for variations in the equivalence ratio, mixture pressure and radiative heat losses. The spatial distribution of irradiance ahead of the flame front has been computed by introducing appropriate geometrical factors to explore the impact of cloud size. Using fuel rich ethylene-air mixtures it has been shown that high flame emissivities can be achieved at path lengths of order 1 m even in the presence of very low soot volume fractions. The emissivity of gas-soot mixtures will hence be mainly determined by the soot concentration and to a lesser extent by the mixture temperature. Our analysis suggests that the role of forward thermal radiation as a contributing factor to flame propagation in large scale vapour cloud explosions can not currently be ruled out.     

组织残留法在水生生物基准中的应用概述

水生生物基准已成为生态风险评价和水环境管理的主要参考依据,在水污染治理、控制和管理以及水生生物保护方面发挥着重要作用。环境和生物学参数对基于水体或沉积物等外暴露浓度的毒性阈值和环境基准存在影响,使其具有变异性和不确定性。而基于组织残留的毒性剂量指标可以减少毒性值的变异性以及不确定性,特别是对于生物累积性物质而言,在毒性效应及环境基准研究中存在显著优势。针对组织残留法在水生生物基准研究中的应用,对组织残留法的概念、优势、应用,以及组织残留基准的推导方法等几个方面进行了综述,并提出了组织残留法在应用中存在的关键问题及建议,旨在推动环境基准、生态风险评价理论和方法的研究,以及为水环境管理和污染防治提供技术支持。     

HSE管理体系增值审核的探讨

探讨了增值审核的概念,提出开展HSE管理体系增值审核的方法。     

Establishing Eco-compensation Mechanism in Bohai Sea Waters under Framework of Ecosystem Approach

Ecosystem approach, a new comprehensive approach to the conservation and management of natural resources, has received universal concern and approval in the world, and it requires the application of the eco-compensation mechanism. Some basic ideas for establishing the marine eco-compensation mechanism are: payers and payees can be identified through analyzing marine ecosystem service changes and impacts on the stakeholders; financial transfer payment and environmental taxes and fees can be used as the main channels for compensation; payment standard can be set up by following the principle of a compromise between calculated theoretic results and “price bargaining”. Focusing on the key human impact on marine ecosystem in Bohai Sea, some preliminary ides on eco-compensation application are given: reform the ongoing charge system of pollutant discharge and enhance its incentives to reduce land pollutants; implement eco-compensation for freshwater demand between Bohai Sea and the river basins for the purpose of increasing freshwater inflow; popularize and strengthen the existing eco-compensation on fishery resources management, and implement the charge system of eco-compensation on reclamation from the sea for land construction.