基于云模型的水体富营养化程度评价方法

水体富营养化程度评价对生态环境保护具有重要意义.针对水体富营养化程度评价不可避免的模糊性和随机性的特点,本文引入云模型的方法,对我国14个代表性湖库的富营养化程度进行评价.根据确定的评价标准,生成各评价因子隶属于各级别的综合云模型,并针对湖库实测资料,得到各评价物的确定度,由最大确定度决定湖库营养化级别.将该法所得结果与湖库实际水质状况、国内外应用较为广泛且简便的营养状态指数、评分公式法及模糊综合评价法所得结果进行对比,发现评价结果真实可靠,计算过程简洁明了,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性.     

CFD-based simulation of dense gas dispersion in presence of obstacles

Quantification of spatial and temporal concentration profiles of vapor clouds resulting from accidental loss of containment of toxic and/or flammable substances is of great importance as correct prediction of spatial and temporal profiles can not only help in designing mitigation/prevention equipment such as gas detection alarms and shutdown procedures but also help decide on modifications that may help prevent any escalation of the event.The most commonly used models - SLAB (Ermak, 1990), HEGADAS (Colenbrander, 1980), DEGADIS (Spicer & Havens, 1989), HGSYSTEM (Witlox & McFarlane, 1994), PHAST (DNV, 2007), ALOHA (EPA & NOAA, 2007), SCIPUFF (Sykes, Parker, Henn, & Chowdhury, 2007), TRACE (SAFER Systems, 2009), etc. - for simulation of dense gas dispersion consider the dispersion over a flat featureless plain and are unable to consider the effect of presence of obstacles in the path of dispersing medium. In this context, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been recognized as a potent tool for realistic estimation of consequence of accidental loss of containment because of its ability to take into account the effect of complex terrain and obstacles present in the path of dispersing fluid.The key to a successful application of CFD in dispersion simulation lies in the accuracy with which the effect of turbulence generated due to the presence of obstacles is assessed. Hence a correct choice of the most appropriate turbulence model is crucial to a successful implementation of CFD in the modeling and simulation of dispersion of toxic and/or flammable substances.In this paper an attempt has been made to employ CFD in the assessment of heavy gas dispersion in presence of obstacles. For this purpose several turbulence models were studied for simulating the experiments conducted earlier by Health and Safety Executive, (HSE) U.K. at Thorney Island, USA (Lees, 2005). From the various experiments done at that time, the findings of Trial 26 have been used by us to see which turbulence model enables the best fit of the CFD simulation with the actual findings. It is found that the realizable k-? model was the most apt and enabled the closest prediction of the actual findings in terms of spatial and temporal concentration profiles. It was also able to capture the phenomenon of gravity slumping associated with dense gas dispersion.     

Evaluating the potential for overpressures from the ignition of an LNG vapor cloud during offloading

Ignition of natural gas (composed primarily of methane) is generally not considered to pose explosion hazards when in unconfined and low- or medium-congested areas, as most of the areas within LNG regasification facilities can typically be classified. However, as the degrees of confinement and/or congestion increase, the potential exists for the ignition of a methane cloud to result in damaging overpressures (as demonstrated by the recurring residential explosions due to natural gas leaks). Therefore, it is prudent to examine a proposed facility’s design to identify areas where vapor cloud explosions (VCEs) may cause damage, particularly if the damage may extend off site.An area of potential interest for VCEs is the dock, while an LNG carrier is being offloaded: the vessel hull provides one degree of confinement and the shoreline may provide another; some degree of congestion is provided by the dock and associated equipment.In this paper, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software FLACS is used to evaluate the consequences of the ignition of a flammable vapor cloud from an LNG spill during the LNG carrier offloading process. The simulations will demonstrate different approaches that can be taken to evaluate a vapor cloud explosion scenario in a partially confined and partially congested geometry.     

Blast damage to storage tanks and steel clad buildings

The 2005 Buncefield vapour cloud explosion showed the huge cost associated with blast damage to commercial property surrounding a major explosion incident. In most cases there was serious disruption to business activity; in many cases the buildings had to be demolished or abandoned for long periods until extensive repairs were carried out.Another key feature of this and other recent vapour cloud explosions has been the damage done to storage tanks. The blasts almost invariably cause immediate top and bund fires in any tanks surrounded by the vapour – even if they contain relatively high flashpoint materials such as diesel.The first part of this paper describes the patterns of damage observed in buildings in the industrial estates around Buncefield. Methods for assessing the degree of external and internal damage are presented.The second part of the paper deals with failure modes and ignition of various types of liquid storage tank during vapour cloud explosions. Again, the Buncefield data provides excellent examples that illustrate the importance of tank design, fill level, location relative to the cloud, etc.     

Bayesian approach to estimating margin of safety for total maximum daily load development

A Bayesian-updating approach is presented to the estimation of total uncertainty-based Margin of Safety (MOS) for Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) calculations. Probability distributions are presented to construct the likelihood function, the prior probability distribution, and the posterior (total uncertainty) probability distribution. The Bayesian-updating approach is demonstrated through a case study for the Lower Amite River, Louisiana. The posterior probability distribution-based on the Bayesian approach updates the standard deviation of summer dissolved oxygen in the Amite River from 1.88 mg/L to 2.10 mg/L when the total uncertainty is considered. Results from the Bayesian-updating approach are compared with two conventional methods. The dissolved oxygen reserve based on a conventional margin of safety of 20% is estimated to be 45,682.26 kg/Day. The second conventional method, where we consider the standard deviation of 1.88 mg/L, produces a dissolved oxygen reserve of 40,516.09 kg/Day. The Bayesian approach yields the dissolved oxygen reserve of 38,614.43 kg/Day with the first level (μ-σ) of MOS, producing a deficit of 5606.65 kg/Day in dissolved oxygen. The dissolved oxygen reserve deficit increases to 23,895.13 kg/Day when the second level (μ-2σ) of MOS is used, which escalated to 42,383.52 kg/Day when the highest level (μ-3σ) of MOS is used. While the total uncertainty-based Bayesian approach is demonstrated for a TMDL development on the Amite River, the overall approach could be applied in any river system with similar available data.     

农地开发整理新增耕地价格评估

有序的农地流转市场需要有价格体系支持.以国家投资的一个重点农地整理项目为例,探讨了农地整理新增耕地价格的内涵、特点、价格评估的必要性、原则和估价方法的选择,并运用成本法评估了新增耕地的价格,旨在为目前我国全面开展的农地开发整理新增耕地入市价格评估提供实践依据.     

An ecosystem approach to analyse the livelihood of fishers of the Old Brahmaputra River in Mymensingh region,Bangladesh

This paper applies an ecosystem approach to analyse the livelihood of fishers dependent on the Old Brahmaputra River in Mymensingh, Bangladesh. Results suggest that the livelihood of fishers is increasingly threatened because of the fragile river ecosystem and poor livelihood assets. Most fishers face a wide range of vulnerability including shocks, trends and seasonality. This is because the ecosystem of the resource base on which their livelihood depends (i.e. the Old Brahmaputra River) has been degraded severely resulting in a significant decline in fish catch due to a combination of factors, such as over-fishing, use of destructive fishing gears, water pollution, siltation, rapid urbanisation and environmental degradation. We propose an adoption of the socio-ecological system with active community participation in the management of the resource base and collaboration amongst key stakeholders to produce positive livelihood outcomes for the fishers.     

Lactation patterns of pinnipeds are not explained by optimization of maternal energy delivery rates

Within pinnipeds, phocids and otariids show differing maternal care strategies. Phocids rear young out of body stores in a yearly cycle with a single stay ashore when the mother fasts while lactating, whereas otariids provision their young by repeated foraging trips to sea alternating with brief stays ashore where they suckle their young. In a previous optimality model, these differences have been interpreted as adaptations based on differing energy requirements of large (phocid) and smaller (otariid) species, and the time budget of the large elephant and the much smaller Antarctic fur seal were correctly predicted. Our refined model—extended to pinniped species of all sizes—predicts lactation strategies to shift from attendance cycles to 1-year cycles with increasing body mass and provides an explanation for the finding that phocid pups are weaned at lower relative mass than otariid pups. However, other predictions do not correspond to empirical findings. In particular, the model does not explain the behavior of large otariids and small phocids. Thus, maternal metabolic requirements alone appear insufficient to explain observed lactation patterns. In the light of our results, we discuss more generally the scope and limitations of optimality models when applied in a comparative framework to a group of related species.     

我国农村作物秸秆资源化调查研究

本文分析了全国秸杆资源化现状和存在问题，探讨秸秆的利用途径和开发价值，对合理开发利用全国的秸秆资源提出了初步建议。