The Sensitivity of Population Viability Analysis to Uncertainty about Habitat Requirements: Implications for the Management of the Endangered Southern Brown Bandicoot

Abstract:  Whenever population viability analysis (PVA) models are built to help guide decisions about the management of rare and threatened species, an important component of model building is the specification of a habitat model describing how a species is related to landscape or bioclimatic variables. Model-selection uncertainty may arise because there is often a great deal of ambiguity about which habitat model structure best approximates the true underlying biological processes. The standard approach to incorporate habitat models into PVA is to assume the best habitat model is correct, ignoring habitat-model uncertainty and alternative model structures that may lead to quantitatively different conclusions and management recommendations. Here we provide the first detailed examination of the influence of habitat-model uncertainty on the ranking of management scenarios from a PVA model. We evaluated and ranked 6 management scenarios for the endangered southern brown bandicoot ( Isoodon obesulus ) with PVA models, each derived from plausible competing habitat models developed with logistic regression. The ranking of management scenarios was sensitive to the choice of the habitat model used in PVA predictions. Our results demonstrate the need to incorporate methods into PVA that better account for model uncertainty and highlight the sensitivity of PVA to decisions made during model building. We recommend that researchers search for and consider a range of habitat models when undertaking model-based decision making and suggest that routine sensitivity analyses should be expanded to include an analysis of the impact of habitat-model uncertainty and assumptions.     

Use of Land Facets to Plan for Climate Change: Conserving the Arenas,Not the Actors

Abstract: Even under the most optimistic scenarios, during the next century human‐caused climate change will threaten many wild populations and species. The most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. To prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air–ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). This approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. Instead, we advocate identifying land facets—recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes—and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units. This coarse‐filter approach would conserve the arenas of biological activity, rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. Integrative, context‐sensitive variables, such as insolation and topographic wetness, are useful for defining land facets. Classification procedures such as k‐means or fuzzy clustering are a good way to define land facets because they can analyze millions of pixels and are insensitive to case order. In regions lacking useful soil maps, river systems or riparian plants can indicate important facets. Conservation planners should set higher representation targets for rare and distinctive facets. High interspersion of land facets can promote ecological processes, evolutionary interaction, and range shift. Relevant studies suggest land‐facet diversity is a good surrogate for today's biodiversity, but fails to conserve some species. To minimize such failures, a reserve design based on land facets should complement, rather than replace, other approaches. Designs based on land facets are not biased toward data‐rich areas and can be applied where no maps of land cover exist.     

Supplier evaluation and selection for sustainable supply chain management under uncertainty conditions

Abstract

With the global increasing importance of sustainable development, sustainable supply chain has gained value among both researchers and industrialists in the last decade. Nowadays, industries are facing pressure from government legislation and the global competition in addition to the pressure from their clients to carry out environmentally – conscious actions. Thus, organisations are required to implement actions to enhance their level of both environmental and economic performances. Traditionally, organisations use criteria such as cost, quality and on-time delivery to evaluate their suppliers’ performance. Although there have been numerous studies on the common criteria for these assessments, very few studies have taken sustainable criteria into consideration. Thereupon, this study tries to put forward a complete model for selection and evaluation of the suppliers, considering three criteria for sustainability, thus using the fuzzy group graph theory and matrix approach. It is an innovative approach based on fuzzy logic and group decision-making, which aims to treat lack of certainty in selection and evaluation of suppliers. We will also discuss a case study in the industry to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.     

Workers’ Involvement—A Missing Component in the Implementation of Occupational Safety and Health Management Systems in Enterprises

Effective implementation of occupational safety and health (OSH) legislation based on European Union directives requires promotion of OSH management systems ( OSH MS). To this end, voluntary Polish standards (PN-N-18000) have been adopted, setting forth OSH MS specifications and guidelines. However, the number of enterprises implementing OSH MS has increased slowly, falling short of expectations, which call for a new national policy on OSH MS promotion. To develop a national policy in this area, a survey was conducted in 40 enterprises with OSH MS in place. The survey was aimed at identifying motivational factors underlying OSH MS implementation decisions. Specifically, workers’ and their representatives’ involvement in OSH MS implementation was investigated. The results showed that the level of workers ‘ involvement was relatively low, which may result in a low effectiveness of those systems. The same result also applies to the involvement of workers’ representatives and that of trade unions.     

基于X列表的云应急管理体系构建

针对非常规突发事件的链式演化特征,为实现云应急环境下云应急管理体系内资源的智能化配置和敏捷高效的按需服务,对接入云端的应急资源、服务进行面向应急管理应用的分类,构建以"感知-决策-处置"为主线的云应急体系的按需服务机制;运用X列表(Bill of X,BOX)模型,分析云应急体系结构,提出面向云应急的X列表体系结构模型,建立列表要素间的语义描述框架和关联关系模型;设计了云应急模式下基于X列表的云应急平台的架构,以期为应急管理活动提供参考和依据。     

秦皇岛地区干旱趋势分析及人工增雨条件

通过分析秦皇岛地区水资源及人均占有率、气候干旱化之现状及秦皇岛地区降水的特点,发现秦皇岛降水有明显日变化特征（凌晨1～2时和傍晚17～18时降水量较大）。从化学制剂的选择、碘化银成核环境确定、积云增雨的高度判断三个方面提出了人工增雨作业条件,在作业实践中取得了良好效果。     

A targeted social marketing approach for community pro-environmental behavioural change

Community-level initiatives will play a key role in meeting greenhouse gas reduction targets. This paper examines the experience gained in applying a targeted social marketing approach to foster local-scale community pro-environmental behavioural change in the City of York, UK. This involved determining the neighbourhood carbon footprint, identifying residents that had access to appropriate infrastructure and were receptive to green issues. Six community teams were recruited from the selected neighbourhoods and provided with information, advice and mentoring on how to reduce their carbon footprint over a six-month period. A statistically significant reduction in carbon emissions was achieved. Each participant achieved a mean reduction in their carbon footprint of 2.0 tonnes of CO₂e/year. The largest reductions were achieved in the areas of shopping and home energy. In addition, it helped to foster community spirit. Based on the experience gained from implementing this approach, a cost-effective model of community engagement is proposed.     

针对瓦斯事故的安全投资效益评估方法研究

煤矿生产中瓦斯事故的发生及其危害程度的不确定性使得定量评价损失很困难.本文提出一种评估煤矿瓦斯事故严重程度和相关安全投资效益的方法.通过分析影响煤矿瓦斯事故发生的主要因素,利用专家调查法推断出瓦斯事故的发生概率和严重程度,进而估计出瓦斯事故的风险度并定量评价相关的安全投资效益.通过这种方法,可以提出各种安全投资方案并进行安全投资效益比较,据此选择安全投资效益最好的安全投资方案进行安全投资决策,最大限度地降低煤矿瓦斯事故的发生概率和危害程度.实例分析表明这种方法是有效的.     

Using a functional approach to wetland valuation: the case of Zazari–Cheimaditida

This study proposes the valuation of wetland functions as an alternative to the conventional approach to wetland valuation, in order to derive indicators for decision-making in wetland management. It is illustrated that these functions can be valuated in terms of the goods and services they provide to society. Using a functional approach, the functions are identified and the goods and services they provide are explicitly allocated among them; then, the latter are valuated with the Contingent Valuation method. Statistical analysis of the data provides welfare measures that reflect the value of these functions. It is argued that the values of separate functions are more useful in policy-making than their aggregated value.

区域二氧化硫控制优化模型研究

传统的区域二氧化硫控制优化都是基于损害函数法和环境标准化法的。本文在分析比较了传统二氧化硫污染控制战略优化中的损害函数法和环境标准化法各自的优点与局限的基础上。建立了基于时间序列决策的整数规划优化模型。这一理论模型更好地描述了控制战略实施的过程。把时间作为模型优化的一个因子。这种基于时间序列的过程充分考虑了货币的时间价值。并能分析这些时间价值对二氧化硫污染控制战略的动态过程影响。本文的模型是更加符合现实的情况。它对于区域二氧化硫控制的中长期决策优化显得更为有效和准确。