Sustainability assessment of national rural water supply program in Tanzania

Sustainability of rural water supply programs in developing countries is still an elusive goal. It is widely accepted that, as a rule, they have failed to deliver benefits to society in the long run. Emphasis has frequently been placed on the short‐term activities. Fast production of new schemes is thus a common strategy, prioritizing the engineering component, while sidestepping social and participatory issues and community empowerment. In 2006, the Government of Tanzania launched a national program to meet water sector targets set out in the Millennium Development Goals by the year 2015. In this study we evaluate key features of the program on a sustained basis. There is evidence that the Government is promoting more sustained facilities, focusing on cost recovery and on ‘decentralization by devolution’. Nevertheless, there are several shortcomings which threaten the long‐term functionality of the infrastructure that has to be built. In light of the implementation of the program, and based on the outputs of its pilot phase, we review the factors that can determine its sustainability.     

基于云模型的民用机场消防指挥员决策能力测评研究

为研究民用机场消防指挥员决策能力,考虑测评指标分为定性与定量2类,且指标存在模糊性的特点,建立基于云模型的民用机场消防指挥员决策能力测评方法。根据相关规章规定、专家意见和问卷调查结果,确定测评指标体系,并依据云模型原理建立定性到定量的测评转换模型,将指标的定性测评转化为直观的定量评价;最后,根据云模型的期望、熵、超熵,评价民用机场消防指挥员决策能力水平。研究结果表明:利用基于云模型原理构建的定性与定量测评转换模型进行决策能力测评,所得测评结果能够体现评价指标模糊性和随机性的特点,评估结果更加直观且贴近实际情况。     

Evaluating the heavy metal contamination in sediments from the guadalquivir estuary after the Aznalcóllar mining spill (SW Spain): a multivariate analysis approach

The Doñana National Park is one of the most importantNatural Reserves in west Europe. The park and theGuadalquivir estuary were impacted by the release of 5million cubic meters of acid waste from the processing ofpyrite ore. Here are presented a multivariate analysisapproach to evaluate the extension and the magnitude of theaccidental spill on the estuarine sediments. Sediments wereused to analyze 6 different metals (Fe, Mn, Zn, Cd, Pb, Cu).Also the concentration of the metals in the differentgeochemical sediment fractions were determined as a means ofassessing the potential impact of the acid water from themine. The analysis of the results obtained permits toestablish that the impact of the accident was acute on theecosystem due to the set up of a treatment plan in June 1998and to the high hydrodynamic of the estuary that absorb theearly impact. Chronic contamination by Cu was also detectedduring the monitoring of the impact of the accident in theestuary but this did not appear to be related to theaccidental spill. Because the likelihood of long term adverseeffects from the heavy metal contamination of estuarinesediments, further ecotoxicological evaluations should becarried out for the estuary and the park using an integrated approach.     

Ecotoxicity in Aliivibrio fischeri of Ibuprofen,Omeprazole and their Mixtures

The acute ecotoxic effects of ibuprofen and omeprazole and their mixture have been measured using Aliivibrio fischeri as a biomodel. The toxic effects were also tested after 5 days, and an effect-driven approach was used to analyse the results. The toxic effects of the mixtures were compared with the predictions obtained using concentration addition and independent action mathematical methods.

According to the Passino and Smith classification, the results indicate that ibuprofen can be considered slightly toxic (10<EC₅₀ <100?mg?L^-1), while omeprazole can be denoted as moderately toxic (1<EC₅₀ <10?mg?L^-1) to Aliivibrio fischeri. An overestimation of the actual ecotoxic effect of the mixture was found when the concentration addition and independent action methods were applied. Finally, the effect-driven approach indicated that the transformation products of the studied drugs should be prioritized for risk assessment purposes.     

关于大中型企业防震减灾工作的探讨

文章通过介绍强烈地震对大中型厂矿企业所造成的地震灾害 ,主要探讨在大中型厂矿企业开展抗震设防、地震应急及防震减灾宣传三方面工作     

基于两种耦合方法的模拟-优化模型在地下水污染源识别中的对比

采用一种基于模拟-优化模型的方法对地下水污染源进行识别研究.模拟-优化模型分别采用响应矩阵法和状态转移方程法进行耦合,并利用遗传算法求解,经过多次迭代,使得模拟结果与观测数据的误差达到最小.最后,通过一个假想例子评估模拟-优化模型的性能,同时比较应用不同耦合方法的计算结果.研究表明:应用响应矩阵法耦合模拟-优化模型所得结果的绝对误差范围为0.1~1.6g/L,应用状态转移方程法时,绝对误差范围为0~5.2g/L,因此,采用遗传算法求解模拟-优化模型能够有效且准确地得到地下水污染源的释放量,可以应用于地下水污染源识别问题,并且采用响应矩阵法耦合模拟-优化模型优于状态转移方程法.     

区域二氧化硫控制优化模型研究

传统的区域二氧化硫控制优化都是基于损害函数法和环境标准化法的。本文在分析比较了传统二氧化硫污染控制战略优化中的损害函数法和环境标准化法各自的优点与局限的基础上。建立了基于时间序列决策的整数规划优化模型。这一理论模型更好地描述了控制战略实施的过程。把时间作为模型优化的一个因子。这种基于时间序列的过程充分考虑了货币的时间价值。并能分析这些时间价值对二氧化硫污染控制战略的动态过程影响。本文的模型是更加符合现实的情况。它对于区域二氧化硫控制的中长期决策优化显得更为有效和准确。     

Analysis of rodent populations in technogenically transformed areas (with reference to <Emphasis Type=Italic>Apodemus</Emphasis> (<Emphasis Type=Italic>S.</Emphasis>) <Emphasis Type=Italic>uralensis</Emphasis> from the EURT zone)

It is shown that the response of rodent populations to acute and chronic irradiation depends on its functional structure, i.e., on specific features of animals with two alternative types of ontogenetic development. Upon acute irradiation, sexually immature young of the year (animals with the second type of ontogeny) are most radioresistant. Exposure to chronic irradiation, as in the zone of the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace (EURT), leads to an increase in the proportion of mature young of the year (animals with the first type of ontogeny), which are the most radiosensitive part of the population. The abundance and fecundity of mice in the impact zone are consistently higher than in the background zone, which improves the adaptive potential of the population. The role of species ecological specialization and configuration of the contaminated zone in the formation of migrant rodent population is emphasized. It is concluded that a high migration activity allows the pigmy wood mouse (a radiosensitive species) to avoid long-term radiation exposure.     

渤海区域生态补偿机制的研究

生态系统方法是保护和管理自然资源的新理念,得到世界各海洋大国的普遍关注和认可。生态系统方法要求运用生态补偿机制。构建海洋生态补偿机制的基本思路是：①根据海洋生态系统服务功能变化及其对利益相关者的影响界定补偿主体和补偿对象：②补偿途径以财政转移支付和环境资源税费为主;③遵循理论计算值与现有实践相结合的原则制定补偿标准。围绕影响渤海生态系统健康的关键是人类活动．提出了构建渤海区域生态补偿机制的初步设想。主要包括：改革现有“排污收费制度”。提高收费标准,增强制度的生态补偿效力。以减少陆源污染物排海;建立流域和海域之间的用水生态补偿机制。以增加入海淡水量;推广“退渔还湿”的生态补偿政策;加大资金投入．强化现有渔业生态补偿政策;以同区域内的土地价格为参照。对围海造地收取生态补偿金。