Bird extirpations and community dynamics in an Andean cloud forest over 100 years of land-use change

Long-term studies to understand biodiversity changes remain scarce—especially so for tropical mountains. We examined changes from 1911 to 2016 in the bird community of the cloud forest of San Antonio, a mountain ridge in the Colombian Andes. We evaluated the effects of past land-use change and assessed species vulnerability to climate disruption. Forest cover decreased from 95% to 50% by 1959, and 33 forest species were extirpated. From 1959 to 1990, forest cover remained stable, and an additional 15 species were lost—a total of 29% of the forest bird community. Thereafter, forest cover increased by 26% and 17 species recolonized the area. The main cause of extirpations was the loss of connections to adjacent forests. Of the 31 (19%) extirpated birds, 25 have ranges peripheral to San Antonio, mostly in the lowlands. Most still occurred regionally, but broken forest connections limited their recolonization. Other causes of extirpation were hunting, wildlife trade, and water diversion. Bird community changes included a shift from predominantly common species to rare species; forest generalists replaced forest specialists that require old growth, and functional groups, such as large-body frugivores and nectarivores, declined disproportionally. All water-dependent birds were extirpated. Of the remaining 122 forest species, 19 are vulnerable to climate disruption, 10 have declined in abundance, and 4 are threatened. Our results show unequivocal species losses and changes in community structure and abundance at the local scale. We found species were extirpated after habitat loss and fragmentation, but forest recovery stopped extirpations and helped species repopulate. Land-use changes increased species vulnerability to climate change, and we suggest reversing landscape transformation may restore biodiversity and improve resistance to future threats.     

Examining the impacts of disaster resettlement from a livelihood perspective: a case study of Qinling Mountains,China

Disaster resettlement, as a mitigation and preparedness measure, entails significant economic, physical, and social impacts, which continue to challenge understanding of recovery from major events, especially regarding the extent of the context and environmental efforts to rebuild livelihoods. Based on a case study of Qinling Mountains, China, this research investigates the effects of disaster resettlement from a livelihoods perspective. Methodologically, it proposes a framework that combines the pressure–state–response framework and the sustainable livelihoods approach, and it employs a structural equation model to examine how specific factors affect disaster resettlement. The results indicate that conflicts may occur during and after resettlement owing to the difference or disparity between the concerns of resettled peasants and those of the government. Consequently, the risks related to livelihoods need to be taken seriously. Effective risk communication is critical to bridge the gap between different stakeholders. The paper concludes with some practical and policy recommendations.     

基于民航安全信息文本挖掘的进近着陆致险因素分析

为有效识别飞行进近着陆阶段致险因素,以进近着陆不安全事件为对象,利用Python语言和文本挖掘方法对文本进行预处理,获取包含关键特征值和特征权重的高维稀疏原始特征向量集合;利用卡方统计对致险因素原始特征项进行降维,得到30个维度文本特征项,借助词云图将文本挖掘结果可视化;通过人为因素、飞机故障、环境因素和管理因素4个层...     

Learning from UK disaster exercises: policy implications for effective emergency preparedness

With a view towards suggesting improvements to the official UK Guidance for disaster exercises, this paper critically examines a representative sample of recent disaster management exercises in the United Kingdom to determine how they are planned, conducted and assessed. Personal observations and in‐depth qualitative interviews were used to study three representative multi‐agency disaster exercises in the UK: (1) the Hitachi 395 Evacuation Workshop and Exercise Twin Bore, (2) Exercise Saxon Shore and (3) Exercise Operation Safe Return. The research demonstrates that disaster exercises in the UK generally consist of four main approaches: (1) disaster response and adaptability, (2) building‐block approach, (3) citizen participation and (4) discussion‐based debriefs. While the data demonstrates that each of these approaches has significant merit, it also elucidates key improvements that should be made to the official UK guidance and reflected in future exercises. In particular, the research suggests that the Guidance should highlight the importance of adaptability at the scene of a disaster, advance a building‐block methodology to organising exercises and reiterate the need for better debriefings of volunteer participants.     

人工补水条件下的缺水河流生态修复综合评价方法

构建了人工补水条件下的缺水河流生态修复多目标综合评价指标体系,对生态修复中影响评价指标量化结果的因素进行了综合考虑,提出了包含主、客观因子并反映层次关系的综合权重确定方法,进而建立了一种人工补水条件下的缺水河流生态修复综合评价方法,以更好地解决多目标决策中的总目标量化问题.最后,以正在建设的永定河生态修复工程为例,通过构建典型的生态修复情景方案,对建立的评价指标体系进行应用,确定各评价指标的综合权重系数,并对构建的情景决策方案进行了综合评估,验证本文提出的评价指标权重综合调整的必要性,说明构建的人工补水条件下的缺水河流生态修复综合评价方法的合理性与可行性.结果表明,所提出的评价方法不仅对人工补水条件下的河流生态修复决策具有一定的实用价值,而且对其它类型生态修复多目标综合决策评价也具有借鉴意义.     

平面问题中主应变测量不确定度评定

目的实现平面场中主应变的测量不确定度评定。方法首先建立主应变的是非线性传播测量模型,然后应用基于二阶TAYLOR级数展开理论的不确定度传播方法(LPU方法),开展平面问题中主应变的测量不确定度评定。针对二种常用的应变花,建立以主应变为输出量、以应变花之三个方向测量应变为输入量的测量模型,并将二阶LPU方法应用于该模型。设计数值计算算例,以说明主应变不确定度的评定过程和方法,并与一阶LPU结果进行了比较。结果当应变花三个方向的应变测量结果相近时,文中方法与一阶LPU方法获得的主应变的不确定度评定结果存在明显的差异,主应变不确定度评定结果在数值上都大于应变花测量的不确定度。当应变花三个方向的应变测量结果相差较大时,文中方法和一阶LPU方法获得的主应变测量不确定度评定结果相差不大。结论特定情况下,主应变的测量不确定度值远大于应变花测量的不确定度,且与一阶LPU方法的评定结果有显著差异,二者可相差一倍。     

城市污水回用及其途径研究

随着经济的快速发展,城市的发展步伐越来越快,居民对生活质量水平要求急剧增高,这就导致了工业、居民用水量大幅度增大,工业废水和城市污水排放量逐渐增加,城市的水资源质量受到污染、水资源短缺,对生活环境带来了较大的负面影响.因此,城市污水管理工作日益重要起来,对于城市污水的处理,利用现代化技术提高回用效率是关键,但现阶段城市污水的回用中还存在一些问题.研究针对城市污水的回用及其途径技术进行研究,并对其中的问题提出建议.     

A systems approach to extraordinarily major coal mine accidents in China from 1997 to 2011: an application of the HFACS approach

This study aimed to provide a greater understanding of the systemic factors involved in coal mine accidents and to examine the relationships between the contributing factors across all levels of the system. Ninety-four extraordinarily major coal mine accidents that occurred in China from 1997 to 2011 were analyzed using the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS). The empirical results showed that the frequencies of unsafe behaviors, inadequate regulation and failure to correct hidden dangers were the highest among five levels, 14 categories and 48 indicators, respectively. The odds ratio technique was applied to quantitatively examine the relationships between contributing factors. Various statistically significant associations were discovered and should receive greater attention in future attempts to develop accident measures. In addition, several strategies concerning the main contributing factors and routes to failure are proposed to prevent accidents from reoccurring in an organization.     

Application of Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural Network in explosion risk analysis of fixed offshore platform

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is routinely used in Explosion Risk Analysis (ERA), as CFD-based ERA offers a good understanding of underlying physics accidental loads. Generally, simplifications were incorporated into CFD-based ERA to limit the number of simulations. Frozen Cloud Approach (FCA) is a frequently used simplification in the dispersion part of the CFD-based ERA procedure. However, its accuracy is questionable in the complex and congested environment such as offshore facility. Furthermore, in explosion part, some specific techniques, e.g. linear/double bin-interpolated techniques have been proposed while the corresponding accuracy is still unknown since the developers did not yet check their accuracy by considering the explosion computational data as the benchmark.This study presents a more accurate algorithm, namely Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural Network (BRANN) and accordingly proposes the frameworks regarding BRANN-based models for the CFD-based ERA procedure. Firstly, the framework is proposed to develop the Transient-BRANN (TBRANN) model for transient dispersion study. In addition, the framework to determine the BRANN model for explosion study is developed. The proposed frameworks are explained by a case study of the fixed offshore platform. Consequently, this study confirms the more accuracy of the TBRANN model over FCA and the accuracy of BRANN model for CFD-based ERA.     

韶石山- -丹霞地貌丹霞山的姐妹山

广东北部丹霞盆地是中、新生代内陆山间盆地，由早第三纪红色岩层构成的丹霞山和韶石山，是丹霞地貌命名标准地区的姐妹山。韶石山因舜帝南巡奏韶乐而得名，后为韶关市命名的主山。自古以三十六奇石著称于世。近年已逐步开发和开展旅游活动。