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151.
AHP-模糊综合评价方法的分析与研究 总被引:60,自引:17,他引:60
系统安全评价是保证生产系统安全生产的基础。笔者在简要分析层次分析 (AHP)与模糊综合评价两种方法的特点的基础上 ,结合这两种方法的优点 ,提出了多层次的AHP -模糊综合评价法 ,并应用于企业作实证分析。结果表明 :该方法具有这两种方法的优点 ,能够较好地保证评价结果的客观性。 相似文献
152.
Offshore oil production is one of the most important human productive activities. There are many risks associated with the process of constructing a subsea well, pumping oil to the platform, and transporting it to refineries via underwater pipes or oil tankers. All actions performed by workers in those operations are influenced by specific working conditions, involving the use of complex systems. Contextual factors such as high noise, low and high temperatures and hazardous chemicals are considered to be contributors to unsafe human actions in accident analysis and also give a basis for assessing human factors in safety analysis. Some failure modes are particularly dangerous and can result in severe accidents and damage to humans, the environment and material assets. Fires and explosions on oil rigs are some of the most devastating types of offshore accidents and can result in long-term consequences. The most typical root causes related to accidents include equipment failure, human error, environmental factors, work organization, training and, communication, among others. The principal objective of this study is to propose a methodological framework to identify the factors that affect the performance of operators of an offshore unit for oil processing and treatment. In this phase, an ergonomics approach based on operators' work analysis is used as a supporting tool. After identification of factors that affect the performance of operators, a decision-making model based on AHP (analytic hierarchy process) is applied to rank and weight the principal performance shaping factors (PSFs) that influence safe operations. The next step involves the use of the SHELLO model to group the main PSFs in elements named software, hardware, environment, liveware and organization. In the last phase, a relevant accident that occurred aboard a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel is analyzed. The allocation process of the factors that affect the operator's performance in risk assessment was developed through fuzzy logic and the ISO 17776 standard. 相似文献
153.
Urban rail network safety is a critical sector of urban public safety. However, there is no uniform standard for the safety evaluation of the urban rail network. This paper presents a novel methodology by integrating a multilevel decision tree with a fuzzy analytical approach to enhance urban rail network safety. The proposed methodology overcomes serious limitations such as subjectivity in the data and independence of the variables in decision-making processes. The proposed methodology is applied to the risk evaluation of the selected Chongqing rail transit lines and the Expo Line. The risk analysis is considered using the field data collected from these transit lines. The applied case studies confirm the general applicability of the methodology and the multilevel decision tree network. The main risk factors identified for the Chongqing rail traffic system are the terrorist threat, emergency management, and aging infrastructure which need to be investigated as a priority to mitigate risk associated with these infrastructures. 相似文献
154.
In almost all industries, fire alarm systems play a vital role in the reducing the risks associated with fires and damages. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate their reliability and performance in emergency situations. The present study aimed to use fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine the root causes involved in the failure of fire alarm systems, to use Fuzzy set theory and expert elicitation to determine relative probabilities, and finally, to evaluate the reliability of a fire alarm system using dynamic Bayesian networks (BNs) during a thirty-six months period. A total of 29 basic events were detected from the FT. The reliability of the fire alarm system was estimated at 0.954 according to the FT and 0.957 according to conventional BNs. The reliability of the fire alarm system after 36 months was estimated at 0.375 according to dynamic BNs. All the events involved in the failure of fire alarm systems were drawn in the fault tree diagram. The results indicate that remodeling of these systems and simultaneous construction activities are the most important factors in the failure of the fire alarm system. System reliability can also be increased to 0.965 by providing preventive and control measures to reduce the probability of critical events. 相似文献
155.
A method is presented for analysis of reliability of complex engineering systems using information from fault tree analysis and uncertainty/imprecision of data. Fuzzy logic is a mathematical tool to model inaccuracy and uncertainty of the real world and human thinking. The method can address subjective, qualitative, and quantitative uncertainties involving risk analysis. Risk analysis with all the inherent uncertainties is a prime candidate for Fuzzy Logic application. Fuzzy logic combined with expert elicitation is employed in order to deal with vagueness of the data, to effectively generate basic event failure probabilities without reliance on quantitative historical failure data through qualitative data processing.The proposed model is able to quantify the fault tree of LPG refuelling facility in the absence or existence of data. This paper also illustrates the use of importance measures in sensitivity analysis. The result demonstrates that the approach is an apposite for the probabilistic reliability approach when quantitative historical failure data are unavailable. The research results can help professionals to decide whether and where to take preventive or corrective actions and help informed decision-making in the risk management process. 相似文献
156.
Application of fuzzy models to assess susceptibility to droughts from a socio-economic perspective 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Lilibeth A. Acosta-Michlik K. S. Kavi Kumar Richard J. T. Klein Sabine Campe 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):151-160
By combining the concepts of environmental stress, state susceptibility and environmental crisis, “Security Diagram” (SD)
provides a quantitative approach to assessing environmental change and human security. The SD is a tool that clearly presents
in a diagram the security situation of a population or region affected by a particular environmental crisis. Its underlying
concept emphasises that the higher the level of environmental stress and socio-economic susceptibility, the higher the probability
of the occurrence of crisis. Focusing on drought, this study analyses the susceptibility of case study regions in India, Portugal,
and Russia from a socio-economic perspective. A conceptual framework of socio-economic susceptibility is developed based on
the economic development theories of modernisation and dependency. Fuzzy set theory is used to generate susceptibility indices
from a range of national and sub-national indicators, including financial resources, agricultural dependency and infrastructure
development (for economic susceptibility), and health condition, educational attainment and gender inequality (for social
susceptibility). Results indicate that socio-economic susceptibility over the period 1980–1995 was highest in India, followed
by Russia and (since 1989) lowest in Portugal. Globalisation is likely to contribute to changes in the level of socio-economic
susceptibility over time. Moreover, specific social and economic structures unique in each country (e.g., the role of women
in society in India, the socialist legacy in Russia) may explain differences in susceptibility between the case study regions.
相似文献
Sabine CampeEmail: |
157.
本文应用多层次、二型Fuzzy综台评判方法,对祁连山水源涵养林区的青海云杉林、祁连圆柏林、灌木林和牧坡草地4个不同植被类型进行了森林水文效应的多因子综合评判。结果表明:青海云杉林是该林区涵养水源效应最佳的林型,祁连圆柏林和灌木林次之,牧坡草地不仅蓄水能力差,且有水土流失发生;并提出了各植被类型合理经营的对策,为祁连山水源涵养林的保护、发展和综合利用提供科学依据。 相似文献
158.
A novel index for the preliminary evaluation of the distribution of pollutants in the harbor environment (Small Marinas Pollution Risk) is proposed. An associated Environmental Decision Support System (JMarinas) has been developed which implements the Multiple Attribute Decision Making theory (MADM) and uses the harbor’s map as geographical support for computations. The MADM matrix is built considering various attributes of the marina and is calculated using both qualitative and quantitative data. 相似文献
159.
160.
The evaluation and ranking of resilience factors (RFs) in an uncertain environment has important implications for the management of any enterprise. Determining an improvement strategy of business process resilience is based on the obtained rank of RFs, and it presents a key success factor for an enterprise in dealing with crisis. The complexity and importance of the treated problem calls for analytic methods rather than intuitive decisions. The relative importance of business processes and the relative importance of RFs under each business process are stated by fuzzy pair-wise comparison matrices. The elements of these matrices are triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs). The fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) is used for determination of relative weights of existing variables. The rank of RFs is obtained by using the extent fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS). The real life application on the selection of the management team shows the practical implications in the process industry. 相似文献