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161.
Probabilistic analysis of aluminium production explosion accidents based on a fuzzy Bayesian network
Explosion accidents of molten aluminium in contact with water during aluminium production often occur and may cause injury and death. In this paper, a fuzzy Bayesian network (BN) was employed to probabilistically analyse the explosion accident of molten aluminium in contact with water. A fault tree-Bayesian network (FT-BN) model was established in the cause-effect analysis of the explosion accident, including three processes: electrolysis, molten aluminium transportation and aluminium casting. Fifty-three nodes were proposed in the model to represent the evolution process of the explosion accident from failure causes to consequences. Furthermore, the occurrence probabilities of basic events (BEs) were determined by expert judgement with weighted treatments based on fuzzy theory. By giving certain occurrence probabilities of each BE, the probability of an explosion accident was estimated. Subsequently, importance measures were assessed for each BE, which could reflect the impact on the occurrence of the top event (TE), and the final ranks were provided. The results indicate that using wet ladles and tools, water on the ground, breakage of the tap hole, damage to the casting mould, and leakage of circulating water are five main problems that cause explosion accidents. Safety advice was provided based on the analysis results. This study can help decision makers improve the safety management of aluminium production. 相似文献
162.
Application of fuzzy models to assess susceptibility to droughts from a socio-economic perspective 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Lilibeth A. Acosta-Michlik K. S. Kavi Kumar Richard J. T. Klein Sabine Campe 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):151-160
By combining the concepts of environmental stress, state susceptibility and environmental crisis, “Security Diagram” (SD)
provides a quantitative approach to assessing environmental change and human security. The SD is a tool that clearly presents
in a diagram the security situation of a population or region affected by a particular environmental crisis. Its underlying
concept emphasises that the higher the level of environmental stress and socio-economic susceptibility, the higher the probability
of the occurrence of crisis. Focusing on drought, this study analyses the susceptibility of case study regions in India, Portugal,
and Russia from a socio-economic perspective. A conceptual framework of socio-economic susceptibility is developed based on
the economic development theories of modernisation and dependency. Fuzzy set theory is used to generate susceptibility indices
from a range of national and sub-national indicators, including financial resources, agricultural dependency and infrastructure
development (for economic susceptibility), and health condition, educational attainment and gender inequality (for social
susceptibility). Results indicate that socio-economic susceptibility over the period 1980–1995 was highest in India, followed
by Russia and (since 1989) lowest in Portugal. Globalisation is likely to contribute to changes in the level of socio-economic
susceptibility over time. Moreover, specific social and economic structures unique in each country (e.g., the role of women
in society in India, the socialist legacy in Russia) may explain differences in susceptibility between the case study regions.
相似文献
Sabine CampeEmail: |
163.
将层次模糊综合评价模型应用于生态示范区指标体系,采用专家调查法构造判断矩阵,确定了指标权重,并对生态示范区建设指标体系进行分级,评价了长沙市开福区生态示范区建设的成效。结果表明,长沙市开福区自开展生态示范区建设以来,在社会、经济和生态环境领域都取得了明显进步,2002年至2003年时间段的成效尤为显著。 相似文献
164.
从模糊分析的基本概念出发,采用“主因素决定型:的综合评综合方法,提出了环保基金效益分析模糊隶属度原则,建立了保投资效益分析的模糊数学模型,通过实例分析表明:(1)环保基金投分析应选择污染投资费比,污染物削减费比,污染物处理效益和污染物去除率4个综合指标;(2)应用模型的预测功能,对年度早报的污染物治理项目优劣进行效益分析筛选,排序,为科学合理的编制年度计划提供依据。 相似文献
165.
大气质量评价上海指数法的改进及应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
该研究将模糊数学应用于上海指数法,在评价函数中引入半梯形隶属函数和倍斜率隶属函数,提出模糊上海指数法,将此法应用于延安市的大气质量评价工人,欧几里德贴近度法和上海指法的结果进行比较表明,模糊上海指数法的评价结果是科学合理的,并利用地理信息系统Mapinfo制作出基于地理信息的城市大气质量评价图,使评价结果可视化,地图化。 相似文献
166.
本文把模糊数学方法用于城市环境质量综合评判中,较好地处理了考核指标等级间的模糊性;由于最大隶属度原则损失信息太多,这种原则不能用于城市环境质量综合评判,而必须利用各等级隶属度提供的全部信息,把隶属度作为“权”参予计分,模糊数学法较直接计分法明显地提高了判别灵敏度,对城市环境质量作出了客观的评价. 相似文献
167.
采用模糊聚类分析方法.对哈密市多年来城市环境噪声监测数据,进行了质量评价。结果表明,该市受到噪声中污染的Ⅳ级水平,提出了相应建议。 相似文献
168.
应用模糊综合指数法对额尔齐斯河水质进行综合评价,指出额尔齐斯河水质已轻度污染,管理不善是额尔齐斯河水质下降的主要原因。 相似文献
169.
The evaluation and ranking of resilience factors (RFs) in an uncertain environment has important implications for the management of any enterprise. Determining an improvement strategy of business process resilience is based on the obtained rank of RFs, and it presents a key success factor for an enterprise in dealing with crisis. The complexity and importance of the treated problem calls for analytic methods rather than intuitive decisions. The relative importance of business processes and the relative importance of RFs under each business process are stated by fuzzy pair-wise comparison matrices. The elements of these matrices are triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs). The fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) is used for determination of relative weights of existing variables. The rank of RFs is obtained by using the extent fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS). The real life application on the selection of the management team shows the practical implications in the process industry. 相似文献
170.
The coherence between different aspects in the environmental system leads to a demand for comprehensive models of this system to explore the effects of different management alternatives. Fuzzy logic has been suggested as a means to extend the application domain of environmental modelling from physical relations to expert knowledge. In such applications the expert describes the system in terms of fuzzy variables and inference rules. The result of the fuzzy reasoning process is a numerical output value. In such a model, as in any other, the model context, structure, technical aspects, parameters and inputs may contribute uncertainties to the model output. Analysis of these contributions in a simplified model for agriculture suitability shows how important information about the accuracy of the expert knowledge in relation to the other uncertainties can be provided. A method for the extensive assessment of uncertainties in compositional fuzzy rule-based models is proposed, combining the evaluation of model structure, input and parameter uncertainties. In an example model, each of these three appear to have the potential to dominate aggregated uncertainty, supporting the relevance of an ample uncertainty approach. 相似文献