模糊聚类法在化学事故中未知化学品判断的应用研究

介绍一种基于微机的有毒有害物质判定方法。用模糊聚类分析法对已有化学品知识库分类。通过对化学品事故现场观察到的综合信息的核查和量化，根据一个判定准则和优化方案，找到未知化学品的归属，同时给出一个比较保守的判断结果，作为突发事故的急救处理和对环境危害的快速评估依据。     

安全程度的可能性分析方法

提出了安全程度的模糊风险度量方法。在模糊可能性理论基础上研究了非确定因素危险程度的量化表示方法。提出了模糊系统安全分析的逻辑模型。这一方法是与基于概率理论之上的方法完全不同的安全分析方法。给出了基于概率可能性和模糊可能性基础上的安全程度的含义和系统安全分析方法及适用条件     

城市自然灾害风险评价的二级模型

利用模糊集方法建立了城市自然灾害风险评价的二级模型。二级模型适用于单一致灾因子的分析。结合文[1]提出的一级模型,即可构成完整的城市自然灾害风险评价体系。     

Assessment and improvement of integrated HSE and macro-ergonomics factors by fuzzy cognitive maps: The case of a large gas refinery

This study analyzes and assesses the integrated health, safety, environment (HSE) and ergonomics (HSEE) factors by fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This is achieved through integrating ergonomic and macro-ergonomic as well as occupational health and safety arrangements in an integrated modeling for assessment of their multi-faceted impact on workers' productivity, injury rate and satisfaction. This paper uses FCM to assess the direct and indirect effects of HSEE factors on system performance indicators. The results of FCM are used to develop leading indicators useful for proactive management of productivity, injury rate, and job satisfaction. The result of a comprehensive survey of 37 experts in control rooms and maintenance activities in a large gas refinery is used to show the applicability and usefulness of FCM approach. Moreover, FCM results are used to determine the causal structure of HSEE factors and system performance indicators. It is concluded that macro-ergonomics factors such as instructions and education, familiarity with organization's rules, and proper communications most contribute to improve workers' safety, satisfaction, and productivity.     

Integrating Local and Scientific Knowledge: An Example in Fisheries Science

Attempting to predict the spatial dynamics fish stocks, as required for management, is an ominous task given our incomplete understanding of biological and ecological mechanisms underpinning behavioral responses of fish. Large gaps still exist in our basic scientific knowledge. Nonetheless, the knowledge of fishers and fishery managers is not incorporated into our scientific analyses, even though such information is rich in observation since knowledge of fish behavior and distribution is a prerequisite for their profession. Combining such observations with more conventional scientific studies and theoretical interpretations provides a means by which we may bridge some gaps in our knowledge. Presented here is an example of how both local and scientific knowledge can be integrated in a heuristic model. The model, CLUPEX, is developed in the framework of a fuzzy logic expert system and uses linguistic statements written in natural language to capture and combine knowledge sources in the form of IF … THEN rules. The rules are inferred from interviews with experts and fishery professionals including fishers, fishery managers, scientists, and First Nations people. The knowledge base, comprised of the set of rules, is flexible in the sense that it can easily be modified to add additional information or change current information. Using input pertaining to biotic and abiotic environmental conditions, CLUPEX uses the rules to provide quantitative and qualitative predictions on the structure, dynamics and mesoscale distribution of shoals of migratory adult herring during different life stages of their annual life cycle.     

气象灾害评定的一种模糊数学方法：以四川盆地为例

本文通过建立气象灾害评定的模糊数学模式,对四川盆地农业气象灾害进行评定。使评定语言从定性跃入定量,评定对象从单类展向整体,而且评定时序从无序深入有序,得到了一致的历史序列。     

Sustainability at the Local Scale: Defining Highly Aggregated Indices for Assessing Environmental Performance. The Province of Reggio Emilia (Italy) as a Case Study

In order to achieve improved sustainability, local authorities need to use tools that adequately describe and synthesize environmental information. This article illustrates a methodological approach that organizes a wide suite of environmental indicators into few aggregated indices, making use of correlation, principal component analysis, and fuzzy sets. Furthermore, a weighting system, which includes stakeholders’ priorities and ambitions, is applied. As a case study, the described methodology is applied to the Reggio Emilia Province in Italy, by considering environmental information from 45 municipalities. Principal component analysis is used to condense an initial set of 19 indicators into 6 fundamental dimensions that highlight patterns of environmental conditions at the provincial scale. These dimensions are further aggregated in two indices of environmental performance through fuzzy sets. The simple form of these indices makes them particularly suitable for public communication, as they condensate a wide set of heterogeneous indicators. The main outcomes of the analysis and the potential applications of the method are discussed.     

一种改进的模糊控制方法及其在大坝安全上的应用

大坝的安全运行状态影响因素多变且各因素之间关系错综复杂 ,而目前大坝普遍存在事故隐患以及对其安全所使用的监控方法的落后和效果的不良 ,笔者针对上述原因 ,给出了一种新的应用模糊理论的算法 ,将传统的模糊控制理论用神经网络优化后 ,能更加方便地应用于非线性系统建模 ,利用给出的新的学习规则 ,可以用竞争学习为训练样本的输入空间进行聚类 ,然后为其确定区域划分边界。将该法运用于水坝的安全管理上 ,将得到的训练网络用实际的历史记录数据验证。结果表明差距很小 ,证明了该方法的正确性 ,将其应用于大坝的安全监控和事故预测方面将会有很好的发展前景。     

化工过程中毒事故风险的模糊综合评估

影响化工过程中毒事故风险性的不确定因素较多,其风险具有相对性且大部分因素具有模糊性的特点。为此,笔者建立了化工过程多级多指标中毒事故风险评估指标体系,根据模糊优选理论,提出了中毒事故风险的模糊综合评估模型,运用模糊层次分析法确定各指标权重,结合有关统计数据及工厂实际,对化工过程潜在的中毒事故风险性进行模糊综合评估,所获结果为化工过程中毒事故的综合防治提供了理论依据     

飞机座舱设计人机工效评价探讨

利用模糊数学的理论 ,建立座舱设计方案的工效学评价体系。体系中采用多级模糊评价 ,对评价指标隶属度、评价指标权重均进行了考虑 ,为座舱工效设计评定研究奠定基础。