基于情景信息扩散模型的雾霾社会风险演化仿真研究

雾霾灾害不仅危害公众健康,且风险信息的传播会引发社会次级风险。为了研究社会风险信息的扩散演化趋势,本文构建了雾霾社会风险的情景信息扩散模型。以中国2013年雾霾灾害为例,将风险信息扩散过程分为爆发期、扩散期和稳定期,分析了不同参数条件下的信息扩散规律。结果表明,政府应在风险信息爆发期和扩散期增大官方渠道信息的覆盖范围,尤其在爆发期需对自由渠道发布的信息进行严格监管,在社会风险扩大之前制定应对策略。     

鱼体中多氯联苯的气相色谱/质谱分析研究

建立了鱼体中共平面多氯联苯(co-PCBs)和指示性多氯联苯(indicator PCBs)残留量的快速溶剂萃取气相色谱质谱分析方法.结果表明,18种多氯联苯在20 μg/L～500 μg/L范围内线性良好(r＞0.998),方法的检出限为0.2 ng/kg～0.5 ng/kg.当添加浓度为100 ng/kg时,多氯联苯的回收率为70.2％～113.5％.该方法前处理简便快速,准确性高,满足鱼体痕量多氯联苯残留的分析要求.     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

Impact of leakage location and downwind storage tank on the gas dispersion in a typical chemical tank storage area

Toxic gas leakage in a tank area can have catastrophic consequences. Storage tank leakage location (particularly for high leakage) and downwind storage tanks potentially influence gas diffusion in tank areas. In this study, we developed a numerical and experimental method to investigate the impact of a high leakage location and downwind storage tank on gas diffusion based on three (1.05H, 0.90H, and 0.77H, H was the tank height, 22m) leakage field experiments on the leeward side of storage tank, which have been not conducted before. The experiments revealed an unexpected phenomenon: the maximum ground concentration first decreased and then increased with increasing leakage height. The simulations illustrated that the differences in micrometeorological conditions caused the maximum ground concentration of gas emitted from the roof to be higher than that emitted from the tank wall near the storage tank height. The downwind storage tank 1) had little influence on the entire diffusion direction but altered the local diffusion pattern; 2) reduced the maximum ground concentration (∼18.7%) and the distance from the emission source (approximately a storage tank diameter); and 3) had strong influences on the concentration, velocity, turbulence, and pressure on the leeward side. The concentration negatively correlated with the velocity, pressure, and turbulence in the middle of the two storage tanks on wind centerline. Our results can improve understanding of gas dispersion in tank areas and provide references for mitigating loss and protecting lives during emergency response processes.     

Influence of sewage culvert cover plate thickness on dynamic response and damage of the cover plate under gas explosion

In order to address the risk of combustible gas explosions in sewage culverts, a numerical model was established using ANSYS/LS-DYNA software. The model consisted of a culvert and a cover plate, and was used to study the effect of cover plate thickness (ranging from 0.08 m to 0.12 m) on the dynamic response and damage of the structure under explosive loads. The results indicated that, during the loading negative pressure stage, the equivalent stress peak value of the central monitoring unit of the cover plate first increased and then decreased with increasing cover plate thickness. Additionally, the maximum principal stress peak value first decreased and then increased, while the maximum shear stress peak value first increased and then decreased. During the loading positive pressure stage, the maximum principal strain peak value of the monitoring unit decreased overall with increasing cover plate thickness. However, the equivalent plastic strain peak value initially increased and then decreased gradually. The equivalent strain indicated that plastic damage occurred in the cover plate. Beyond a thickness of 0.11 m, increasing the cover thickness did not appear to enhance its resistance to plastic damage. The damage analysis revealed that as cover plate thickness increased, the peak displacement and velocity of the monitoring unit continued to decrease, while the overall stability and explosive resistance of the cover plate increased. Additionally, the number of damaged fragments decreased. However, once the cover plate thickness reached 0.11 m, the bonding performance of the reinforced concrete structure had been fully developed, increasing the thickness of the cover plate no longer had a significant impact on the explosive resistance of the cover plate.     

Study on acceleration and suppression properties of coal gangue with different void fractions on gas explosion propagation

Gas explosion is one of the main disasters in coal mining. Plenty of coal gangue are generally distributed in the disaster areas in gob. Experiments were carried out to explore the propagation law of the gas explosion distributed by coal gangue. The variation characteristics of the overpressure, pressure rise rate, and flame shape with void fractions were analyzed. The results showed that the effect of the coal gangue on the explosion intensity changed from suppression to acceleration with the increase of void fraction, the flame front upstream blockage area changed from laminar state to turbulent divergent state, and a reverse flame was formed. When the void fraction of the coal gangue was 0.50–0.65, the maximum overpressure downstream of the blocked area were positively correlated with the void fraction and the critical suppression range was between 0.50 and 0.55. When the void fraction was lower than 0.50, the flame was quenched in the coal gangue, neither the flame nor the pressure could pass through the blocked area. It is helpful to guide the improvement of coal recovery process to avoid the expansion of the explosion impact in coalmine gob.     

焊接工艺多源散发的高温颗粒污染物扩散特性数值模拟

为探究热工艺过程产生的热气流作用下颗粒的迁移规律,基于气固两相离散粒子模型(DPM)对多源浮射流伴生的高温颗粒的扩散特性进行了数值研究,讨论了两相流运动过程中热气流与颗粒群的温度和速度的瞬时变化情况.结果表明,对于473K£T₀£673K的高温颗粒群,温度衰减趋势类似,颗粒群温度分布呈中心对称;当5μm£d_p£20μm时,颗粒与气流之间的跟随性随着粒径的增大而降低;热羽流随时间经历了独立发展和相互合并的过程,羽流之间涡旋结构的消失导致中心位污染源散发的d_p=10μm的颗粒更容易发生沉降.     

洞庭湖钉螺扩散与水情变化规律

洞庭湖区是目前我国钉螺分布范围最广且血吸虫病疫情最难防治的疫区。为揭示近年来洞庭湖区钉螺扩散与疫区水情变化的关系，从洪水对钉螺扩散及其孳生地环境淹没时间影响考虑，提出了表征疫区钉螺扩散及孳生地变化的水情指标，选用最能综合反映洪水年水情变化的汛期平均水位作为疫区水情变化的表征指标，并以洞庭湖为例定量分析了洞庭湖区钉螺扩散与以城陵矶站汛期平均水位为指示性指标的疫区水情的相关关系。其结果显示洞庭湖区钉螺面积与湖区汛期平均水位线性相关性显著，其相关关系式为y＝0.107 2x+14382(r=0822,p<005)，其中y为洞庭湖区钉螺分布面积，x为城陵矶站汛期平均水位。     

A rapid method for determination of Aroclor 1260 in cattle adipose tissue

Abstract

A simple analytical procedure for the determination of Aroclor 1260 in cattle adipose tissue is described. The polychlorinated biphenyls residues are extracted from the tissue using a soxhlet extractor and the extracts are cleaned up using a florisil SEP‐PAK cartridge. The residues are detected using a gas chromatograph equipped with an electron capture detector. The effect of extraction time of the Aroclor 1260 residues from the tissue has been investigated and a period of four hours is found to give satisfactory percent recoveries. Greater than 85 percent recoveries were obtained from adipose tissue spiked with Aroclor 1260. The method can be used to detect Aroclor 1260 residue levels as low as 0.10 parts per million.

The method was used to analyze thirty‐one cattle adipose tissue samples out of which twenty‐six samples were taken from cattle suspected of exposure to a pasture containing electrical transformers and capacitors containing Aroclor 1260. Five control samples were collected from cattle with no known exposure. All twenty‐six samples were found to contain non‐detectable Aroclor 1260 residues.     

Effect of density-driven flow on the through-diffusion experiment

Diffusion is one of the main mechanisms of solute transport in pore water of geologic media. The effective diffusion coefficient of a solute in a rock is usually measured by the through-diffusion experiment. However, in this experiment, the effect of advection, induced by density difference between dense aqueous solution and pure water, has not been considered. To evaluate the effect of density-driven flow, a through-diffusion experiment using Fontainebleau sandstone was conducted for KCl and KI aqueous solutions with various densities. The measured effective diffusion coefficients were positively correlated with the density difference; the effective diffusion coefficient of a 1 M KI solution (density difference, 0.119 g/cm³) was one order of magnitude larger than that of a 0.1 M KCl solution (density difference, 0.005 g/cm³). The result is explained by a theoretical model using a diffusion–advection equation including Darcy's law. Based on the theory, a diagram to evaluate the condition at which the measured effective diffusion coefficient does not include the effect of advection is presented.