IDENTIFICATION OF CHANGES IN STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: A set of procedures for identifying changes in selected streamflow characteristics at sites having long‐term continuous streamflow records is illustrated by using streamflow data from the Waccamaw River at Freeland, North Carolina for the 55‐year period of 1940–1994. Data were evaluated and compared to streamflow in the adjacent Lumber River Basin to determine if changes in streamflow characteristics in the Waccamaw River were localized and possibly the result of some human activity, or consistent with regional variations. Following 1963, droughts in the Waccamaw Basin seem to have been less severe than in the Lumber Basin, and the annual one‐, seven‐, and 30‐day low flows exhibited a slightly increasing trend in the Waccamaw River. Mean daily flows in the Waccamaw River at the 90 percent exceedance level (low flows) during 1985–194, a relatively dry period, were very nearly equal to flows at the same exceedance level for 1970–1979, which represents the 10‐year period between 1940 and 1994 with the highest flows. Prior to the 1980s, flows per unit drainage area in the Waccamaw Basin were generally less than those in the Lumber Basin, but after 1980, the opposite was true. The ratio of base flow to runoff in the Waccamaw River may have changed relative to that in the Lumber River in the late 1970s. There was greater variability in Waccamaw River streamflow than in Lumber River flow, and flow variability in the Waccamaw River may have increased slightly during 1985–1994.     

气体反溶剂(GAS)过程细化技术及对炸药安全性能的影响研究

介绍了气体反溶剂 (GAS)过程细化技术原理及影响细化结果的主要因素 ,并从理论和实验角度分析了炸药重结晶细化处理后 ,对撞击感度和冲击波感度的影响 ;结果表明 ,GAS过程不仅可以有效地控制炸药颗粒的粒度、粒度分布、晶形 ,而且可以有效降低炸药撞击感度和冲击波感度 ,改善炸药安全性能     

Effects of a carbon monoxide-dominant gas mixture on the explosion and flame propagation behaviors of methane in air

This work aimed to experimentally evaluate the effects of a carbon monoxide-dominant gas mixture on the explosion characteristics of methane in air and report the results of an experimental study on explosion pressure measurement in closed vessel deflagration for a carbon monoxide-dominant gas mixture over its entire flammable range. Experiments were performed in a 20-L spherical explosion tank with a quartz glass window 110 mm in diameter using an electric spark (1 J) as the ignition source. All experiments were conducted at room temperature and at ambient pressure, with a relative humidity ranging from 52 to 73%. The peak explosion pressure (P_max), maximum pressure rise rate ((dp/dt)_max), and gas deflagration index (K_G) were observed and analyzed. The flame propagation behavior in the initial stage was recorded using a high-speed camera. The spherical outward flame front was determined on the basis of a canny method, from which the maximum flame propagation speed (S_n) was calculated. The results indicated that the existence of the mixture had a significant effect on the flame propagation of CH₄-air and increased its explosion risk. As the volume fraction of the mixed gas increases, the P_max, (dp/dt)_max, K_G and S_n of the fuel-lean CH₄-air mixture (7% CH₄-air mixture) increase nonlinearly. In contrast, addition of the mixed gas negatively affected the fuel-rich mixture (11% CH₄-air mixture), exhibiting a decreasing trend. Under stoichiometric conditions (9.5% CH₄-air mixture), the mixed gas slightly lowered P_max, (dp/dt)_max, K_G, and S_n. The P_max of CH₄-air mixtures at volume fractions of 7%, 9.5%, and 11% were 5.4, 6.9, and 6.8 bar, respectively. The S_n of CH₄-air mixtures at volume fractions of 7%, 9.5%, and 11% were 1.2 m/s, 2.0 m/s, and 1.8 m/s, respectively. The outcome of the study is comprehensive data that quantify the dependency of explosion severity parameters on the gas concentration. In the storage and transportation of flammable gases, the information is required to quantify the potential severity of an explosion, design vessels able to withstand an explosion and design explosion safety measures for installations handling this gas.     

Dynamic failure probability analysis of urban gas pipeline network

The gas pipeline network is an essential infrastructure for a smart city. It provides a much-needed energy source; however, it poses a significant risk to the community. Effective risk management assists in maintaining the operational safety of the network. The risk management of the network requires reliable dynamic failure probability analysis. This paper proposes a methodology of condition monitoring and dynamic failure probability analysis of urban gas pipeline network. The methodology begins with identifying key design and operational factors responsible for pipeline failure. Subsequently, a causation-based failure model is developed as the Bowtie model. The Bowtie model is transformed into a Bayesian network, which is analyzed using operational data. The key contributory factors of accident causation are monitored. The monitored data is used to analyze the updated failure probability of the network. The gas pipeline network's dynamic failure probability is combined with the potential consequences to assess the risk. The application of the approach is demonstrated in a section of the urban gas pipeline.     

Prediction of distance to maximum intensity of turbulence generated by grid plate obstacles in explosion-induced flows

The interaction of unburnt gas flow induced in an explosion with an obstacle results in the production of turbulence downstream of the obstacle and the acceleration of the flame when it reaches this turbulence. Currently, there are inadequate experimental measurements of these turbulent flows in gas explosions due to transient nature of explosion flows and the connected harsh conditions. Hence, majority of measurements of turbulent properties downstream of obstacles are done using steady-state flows rather than transient flows. Consequently, an empirical based correlation to predict distance to maximum intensity of turbulence downstream of an obstacle in an explosion-induced flow using the available steady state experiments was developed in this study. The correlation would serve as a prerequisite for determining an optimum spacing between obstacles thereby determining worst case gas explosions overpressure and flame speeds. Using a limited experimental work on systematic study of obstacle spacing, the correlation was validated against 13 different test conditions. A ratio of the optimum spacing from the experiment, x_exp to the predicted optimum spacing, x_pred for all the tests was between 2-4. This shows that a factor of three higher than the x_pred would be required to produce optimum obstacle spacing that will lead to maximum explosion severity. In planning the layout of new installations, it is appropriate to identify the relevant worst case obstacle separation in order to avoid it. In assessing the risk to existing installations and taking appropriate mitigation measures it is important to evaluate such risk on the basis of a clear understanding of the effects of separation distance and congestion. It is therefore suggested that the various new correlations obtained from this work be subjected to further rigorous validation from relevant experimental data prior to been applied as design tools.     

受限空间中CO与水蒸汽阻尼瓦斯爆炸的反应动力学模拟研究

为了探求一氧化碳与水蒸汽参与瓦斯爆炸的化学反应动力学过程的阻尼效应,建立了受限空间中瓦斯爆炸反应的数学模型。数值计算结果表明,结果表明在瓦斯爆炸过程中,瓦斯-空气混合气体含有10%的一氧化碳,虽然会延迟瓦斯爆炸时间,抑制瓦斯爆炸,但是H、O自由基浓度、瓦斯爆炸温度和压力比不加入一氧化碳时升高,同时对CO2、NO的生成起促进作用;当混合气体中含有10%的水蒸汽时,H、O自由基浓度降低,瓦斯爆炸温度和压力也随之降低,致灾性气体CO2、NO的生成得到抑制。虽然一氧化碳对瓦斯爆炸有一定的阻尼效应,但是由于一氧化碳对部分致灾性气体的生成有促进作用,因此,在阻尼瓦斯爆炸方面,水蒸汽的效果要好于一氧化碳。     

低透突出煤层深孔水力致裂增透与浅孔抽采联合消突技术应用

为提高低透突出煤层的瓦斯抽采效果,在薛湖煤矿2303风巷进行了深孔水力致裂与潜孔抽采联合消突技术的试验应用.首先结合现场实际情况,从注水压力、钻孔布置和现场施工等方面研究了施工技术工艺,然后从应力分布、瓦斯解吸速度、钻屑瓦斯解吸指标、瓦斯抽采浓度等方面考察了水力致裂增透效果和联合消突技术的消突效果.应用表明,深孔水力致裂增透与浅孔抽采联合消突技术,工作面前方支承压力、瓦斯解吸速度、钻屑瓦斯解吸指标均大幅降低,瓦斯抽采浓度明显提高,抽采效果明显,为同类矿井的防突工作提供了可借鉴的技术和经验.     

机场周边大气中非甲烷总烃时空分布特征

为了研究机场周边大气中非甲烷烃的污染情况,于2011年4月21日起连续5天对某机场起降点附近2个采样点以及对照点农田区的大气中NMHCs进行测定.结果表明,NMHCs的含量为飞机开始滑行点（3.22mg/m3）＞降落点（2.92mg/m3）＞农田区（2.91 mg/m3）,均超出以色列的标准（2.0mg/m3）.非甲烷总烃在一天中下午16点达到最小值.飞机的起降对周边大气NMHCs排放有一定的影响.而对照点农田排放可能是当地NMHCs排放的重要来源. 3个采样点中,排放的碳氢化合物以非甲烷烃为主,占总烃的63.4％.NMHCs和总烃的线性关系良好,用统计回归的方法得到了研究区总烃和非甲烷烃的换算公式.     

ESTIMATING PARAMETERS OF EV1 DISTRIBUTION FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The parameters of the extreme value type 1 distribution were estimated for 55 annual flood data sets by seven methods. These are the methods of (1) moments, (2) probability weighted moments, (3) mixed moments, (4) maximum likelihood estimation, (5) incomplete means, (6) principle of maximum entropy, and (7) least squares. The method of maximum likelihood estimation was found to be the best and the method of incomplete means the worst. The differences between the methods of principle of maximum entropy, probability weighted moments, moments, and least squares were only minor. The difference between these methods and the method of maximum likelihood was not pronounced.     

滇池流域水资源的开发与保护

本文介绍了滇池流域的自然条件和社会经济发展,分析了水资源特点,对其开发现状和供需预测作了评述,并提出了进一步开发和保护水资源的建议。