基于指标规范值的地表水水质的模糊综合评价

传统的模糊综合评价法用于地表水水质评价,当指标数较多时需要设计很多隶属函数,设计和计算工作量皆很大,实际使用不便。在设定指标参照值和规范变换式基础上,将指标按各级标准规范值相近程度进行适当分类,只需分类设计隶属函数即可,大幅减少了计算工作量,使模糊综合评价法应用于地表水水质评价变得简化。     

Road traffic injuries to foreigners in the People's Republic of China, 2000-2008

Introduction: China's rapid motorization has resulted in significant challenges in road safety. Method: Using official national statistics, this study examines road traffic injuries (RTIs) experienced by foreigners in China. The number of foreigners entering China has increased 2.4 times over the study period, from 10.16 million in 2000 to 24.33 million in 2008. Results: From 2000- 2008, the number of road traffic fatalities among foreigners similarly increased 2.5 fold, including 49 fatalities reported in 2008. Nonfatal RTIs during this same time frame increased by a magnitude of 1.8 (126 nonfatal injuries in 2000 to 223 in 2008). Conclusions: This study suggests that the total number of foreigners working or visiting China each year who suffer fatal and nonfatal road traffic injuries is relatively low. Impact on Industry: This study provided evidence suggesting that foreigners visiting or working in China face a relatively low risk of road traffic injuries.     

易燃液体仓库安全监控系统研究

通过对易燃液体仓库的潜在危险的分析和研究,以及火灾爆炸危险性分析,说明安全监控技术的重要性。在对监测参数进行分析的基础上,给出了对监测易燃液体仓库的安全监控系统和监测点的布置以及采用合适的探测器。     

驾驶员心理特征与驾驶安全的关系研究

随着人-车-环境系统复杂性的增加和交通事故数量的上升,新型交通工具对驾驶员的要求随之提高。从人的心理与控制的关系及汽车驾驶员的心理特征出发,具体分析心理各特征因素对驾驶员的影响,在此基础上建立汽车驾驶员安全评价模型,最后提出了在考虑心理因素的前提下提高道路行车安全的具体措施。     

A classification tree based modeling approach for segment related crashes on multilane highways

Introduction

This study presents a classification tree based alternative to crash frequency analysis for analyzing crashes on mid-block segments of multilane arterials.

Method

The traditional approach of modeling counts of crashes that occur over a period of time works well for intersection crashes where each intersection itself provides a well-defined unit over which to aggregate the crash data. However, in the case of mid-block segments the crash frequency based approach requires segmentation of the arterial corridor into segments of arbitrary lengths. In this study we have used random samples of time, day of week, and location (i.e., milepost) combinations and compared them with the sample of crashes from the same arterial corridor. For crash and non-crash cases, geometric design/roadside and traffic characteristics were derived based on their milepost locations. The variables used in the analysis are non-event specific and therefore more relevant for roadway safety feature improvement programs. First classification tree model is a model comparing all crashes with the non-crash data and then four groups of crashes (rear-end, lane-change related, pedestrian, and single-vehicle/off-road crashes) are separately compared to the non-crash cases. The classification tree models provide a list of significant variables as well as a measure to classify crash from non-crash cases. ADT along with time of day/day of week are significantly related to all crash types with different groups of crashes being more likely to occur at different times.

Conclusions

From the classification performance of different models it was apparent that using non-event specific information may not be suitable for single vehicle/off-road crashes.

Impact on Industry

The study provides the safety analysis community an additional tool to assess safety without having to aggregate the corridor crash data over arbitrary segment lengths.     

Improving construction site safety through leader-based verbal safety communication

Background

The construction industry is one of the most injury-prone industries, in which production is usually prioritized over safety in daily on-site communication. Workers have an informal and oral culture of risk, in which safety is rarely openly expressed. This paper tests the effect of increasing leader-based on-site verbal safety communication on the level of safety and safety climate at construction sites. Method: A pre-post intervention-control design with five construction work gangs is carried out. Foremen in two intervention groups are coached and given bi-weekly feedback about their daily verbal safety communications with their workers. Foremen-worker verbal safety exchanges (experience sampling method, n = 1,693 interviews), construction site safety level (correct vs. incorrect, n = 22,077 single observations), and safety climate (seven dimensions, n = 105 questionnaires) are measured over a period of up to 42 weeks. Results: Baseline measurements in the two intervention and three control groups reveal that foremen speak with their workers several times a day. Workers perceive safety as part of their verbal communication with their foremen in only 6-16% of exchanges, and the levels of safety at the sites range from 70-87% (correct observations). Measurements from baseline to follow-up in the two intervention groups reveal that safety communication between foremen and workers increases significantly in one of the groups (factor 7.1 increase), and a significant yet smaller increase is found when the two intervention groups are combined (factor 4.6). Significant increases in the level of safety are seen in both intervention groups (7% and 12% increases, respectively), particularly in regards to 'access ways' and 'railings and coverings' (39% and 84% increases, respectively). Increases in safety climate are seen in only one of the intervention groups with respect to their 'attention to safety.' No significant trend changes are seen in the three control groups on any of the three measures. Conclusions: Coaching construction site foremen to include safety in their daily verbal exchanges with workers has a significantly positive and lasting effect on the level of safety, which is a proximal estimate for work-related accidents. It is recommended that future studies include coaching and feedback at all organizational levels and for all involved parties in the construction process. Building client regulations could assign the task of coaching to the client appointed safety coordinators or a manager/supervisor, and studies should measure longitudinal effects of coaching by following foremen and their work gangs from site to site.     

Effect of enhanced seat belt reminders on driver fatality risk

Objective

Enhanced seat belt reminders in automobiles have been shown to increase belt use rates by approximately 3 percentage points. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of enhanced seat belt reminders on driver fatality risk.

Method

Data included all passenger vehicle driver deaths and vehicle registration counts in the United States for calendar years 2000-2007. Driver fatality rates per vehicle registration per year were compared for otherwise identical vehicle models with and without enhanced seat belt reminders.

Results

Driver fatality rates were 6% lower for vehicles with enhanced seat belt reminders compared with vehicles without enhanced belt reminders. After adjusting for vehicle age differences, the estimated effect of enhanced belt reminders on driver fatality risk ranged from a 9% reduction for General Motors vehicles to a 2% increase for Honda vehicles. Combining all manufacturers, enhanced belt reminders reduced fatality risk by approximately 2%. Although not statistically significant, the 2% reduction in fatality risk agrees with what should be expected from a 3 percentage point increase in seat belt use rates.

Conclusions

Enhanced seat belt reminders have raised driver belt use rates and reduced fatality rates, but more aggressive systems may be needed for some drivers. It can be inferred that nonfatal injury rates also have been reduced.

Impact on Industry

Manufacturers should be encouraged to put enhanced seat belt reminders on all vehicles as soon as possible.     

创建矿业安全卫生法 保护矿工生命健康权

通过对比分析可知,现行《矿山安全法》的根本目的不是矿山职业安全,而是为了矿山生产安全和促进采矿业发展,并且缺少保护矿工健康权的规定。民国时期的《矿场法》属于可以继承的矿业安全与健康立法,并有多数国家制定的《矿业安全与健康法》可供借鉴。可以得出结论:以效率为本向以人为本的转变和落实,必须依靠法律制度的固定和保障;人们健康安全需要层次的提升是制度变迁的动因;我国缺乏保障矿工基本人权的《矿业安全与健康法》而出现制度断层。     

北京市道路交通安全现状分析及控制策略研究

在分析北京市道路交通安全形势以及事故特点的基础上,运用交通冲突理论分析道路交通事故发生的机理,论述道路交通事故发生的过程。并从安全系统工程学角度,使用交通事故显性/隐性致因模型对道路交通事故的致因因素进行分析,强调管理因素的重要性。最后,结合北京市道路交通现状,综合运用3E对策,讨论了改善道路交通安全的控制策略。通过加大违章行为惩罚力度、培养安全文化、建立道路交通事故应急救援体系以及应用智能交通技术等措施,消除道路交通系统中人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态,提高北京市道路交通安全水平。     

工厂三维建模及其事故模拟

利用Microstation软件对某化工厂区进行三维建模,在考虑实际外界风向、风速,不同点火源位置等重要影响因素的条件下,运用计算流体动力学(CFD)软件FLACS,研究了有毒、易燃易爆的氯乙烯液化气体储罐安全阀气体泄漏和储罐底部物料管线液态氯乙烯的泄漏、蒸发、扩散和爆炸作用等过程,计算结果可以给出氯乙烯火灾、爆炸或扩散中毒等事故后果的影响范围和相关精确物理量。模拟结果表明,对于常温下的氯乙烯液化气体球罐,球罐安全阀泄漏后罐区及周边不会有燃烧或爆炸危险;而物料管线在特定的液相泄漏情景下,蒸发扩散的氯乙烯气云则有可能发生气云爆炸;但在弱约束条件下,爆炸冲击波作用比较微弱。该研究方法及其结果可以为石油化工企业选址、设计布局、安全规划、风险分析、应急救援及事故调查等提供更加准确的依据。