OHP–APT 2002 gravity wave campaign: waves,turbulence and forecasts

In July 2002, a multi-sensor campaign was conducted in southern France to investigate the hypothesized connection between gravity waves and optical turbulence. A generalized scidar (GS) was mounted on the 1.93 m diameter telescope at l’Observatoire de Haute-Provence (OHP). The GS provides continuous profiles of optical turbulence with 300 m vertical resolution from telescope altitude up to 25 km. Thermosondes, which provide in situ measurement of optical turbulence by measuring temperature variance, were launched at the OHP site and at a site approximately 20 km west-northwest of OHP. Gravity wave activity was deduced from temperature and wind velocity measured by radiosondes, which are part of the thermosonde system. In this paper, gravity waves were analyzed using techniques for simple two-dimensional mountain waves, with only fair results. Mesoscale models were run at moderately high resolution for the period. The forecasts were analyzed for wave activity, and a post processor model was used to diagnose the optical turbulence. Mountain waves were evident in the forecast, but quantitative comparison showed the forecast to be inadequate in predicting wave strength. The forecast optical turbulence was in fair agreement with measurements with notable exceptions. This paper is declared a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged. Presented at the Turbulence and Waves in Stably Stratified Atmospheric Shear Flows: Measurements, High Resolution Simulations and Numerical Prediction Challenges Conference, 13–15 September 2004, Lighthill Institute of Mathematical Sciences, University College London, London, UK.     

Hierarchical spatial modeling for estimation of population size

Estimation of population size has traditionally been viewed from a finite population sampling perspective. Typically, the objective is to obtain an estimate of the total population count of individuals within some region. Often, some stratification scheme is used to estimate counts on subregions, whereby the total count is obtained by aggregation with weights, say, proportional to the areas of the subregions. We offer an alternative to the finite population sampling approach for estimating population size. The method does not require that the subregions on which counts are available form a complete partition of the region of interest. In fact, we envision counts coming from areal units that are small relative to the entire study region and that the total area sampled is a very small proportion of the total study area. In extrapolating to the entire region, we might benefit from assuming that there is spatial structure to the counts. We implement this by modeling the intensity surface as a realization from a spatially correlated random process. In the case of multiple population or species counts, we use the linear model of coregionalization to specify a multivariate process which provides associated intensity surfaces hence association between counts within and across areal units. We illustrate the method of population size estimation with simulated data and with tree counts from a Southwestern pinyon-juniper woodland data set.     

Maximum uptakes of cadmium on free and immobilised bacteria and actinomycetes cells

Studies of adsorption of cadmium by free bacterial and free actinomycete cells, alginate beads and immobilised bacterial or actinomycete cells in alginate beads were performed in ultrapure water. The immobilisation in alginate beads allows the survival of the microorganisms in non-ideal conditions. Here, we found the following affinity for the cadmium ion: R25 free cells<alginate beads<R25 immobilised cells<ZAN 044 immobilised cells<ZAN 044 free cells, obtained with the b Langmuir parameter. The maximum uptakes gave the series: ZAN 044 free cells<ZAN 044 immobilised cells<R25 free cells<alginate beads<R25 immobilised cells.     

磷钼蓝比色法合适工作波长及线性范围的探讨

采用抗坏血酸-钼锑抗混合液作为磷钼蓝比色法测定磷含量的显色剂,形成稳定的显色液后,应用756CRT型紫外可见分光光度计进行600~850nm范围内的波长扫描。结果表明,吸收峰在722.2nm附近,同时,对720nm波长下的吸光度值与不同磷浓度吸收峰下的吸光度值进行比较,两者无显著差异。并且考虑到对于普通型的分光光度计很难做到722.2nm这样精确的调节。所以,可把720nm作为合适的工作波长,且磷浓度在0~1.0mg/kg内呈线性范围。     

Muscle Tetanus and Loading Condition Effects on the Elastic and Viscous Characteristics of the Thorax

Thoracic deformation under an applied load is an established indicator of injury risk, but the force required to achieve an injurious level of deformation currently is not understood adequately. This article evaluates how two potentially important factors, loading condition and muscle tensing, affect the structural response of the dynamically loaded thorax. Structural models of two human cadaver thoraxes and two porcine thoraxes were used to quantify the effects. The human cadavers, which represent anthropometric extremes, were subjected to anterior loading from (1) a 5.1-cm-wide belt oriented diagonally (i.e., seatbelt-like loading), (2) a 15.2-cm-diameter rigid hub, and (3) a 20.3-cm-wide belt oriented laterally (i.e., a distributed load). A structural model having the mathematical formulation of a quasilinear viscoelastic material model was used to model the elastic and viscous response, with ramp-hold tests used to determine the model coefficients. The effect of thoracic musculature was assessed using similar ramp-hold tests on the porcine subjects, each with and without forced muscle contraction. Even maximally contracted thoracic musculature is shown to have a minimal effect on the response, with similar elastic and viscous characteristics exhibited by each subject regardless of muscle tone. The elastic response is shown to be approximately a factor of three stiffer for diagonal belt loading and for this distributed loading condition than for the hub loading, indicating that the response is influenced most by the particular anatomical structures that are engaged and, secondarily, by the area of load application. Specifically, shoulder involvement is shown to have a strong influence. The force relaxation is found to be pronounced, but insensitive to the loading condition, with long-time force relaxation coefficients (G_∞) in the range of 0.1 to 0.3. The findings of this study provide restraint-specific guidelines for the force-deflection characteristics of both physical and computational thoracic models.     

Predictive Model for Motorcycle Accidents at Three-Legged Priority Junctions

In conjunction with a nationwide motorcycle safety program, the provision of exclusive motorcycle lanes has been implemented to overcome link-motorcycle accidents along trunk roads in Malaysia. However, not much work has been done to address accidents at junctions involving motorcycles. This article presents the development of predictive model for motorcycle accidents at three-legged major-minor priority junctions of urban roads in Malaysia. The generalized linear modeling technique was used to develop the model. The final model reveals that motorcycle accidents are proportional to the power of traffic flow. An increase in nonmotorcycle and motorcycle flows entering the junctions is associated with an increase in motorcycle accidents. Nonmotorcycle flow on major roads had the highest effect on the probability of motorcycle accidents. Approach speed, lane width, number of lanes, shoulder width, and land use were found to be significant in explaining motorcycle accidents at the three-legged major-minor priority junctions. These findings should enable traffic engineers to specifically design appropriate junction treatment criteria for nonexclusive motorcycle lane facilities.     

Upscaling heterogeneity in aquifer reactivity via the exposure-time concept: inverse model

A novel inverse technique is proposed to quantitatively characterize macroscopic variability in aquifer reactivity in a Lagrangian representation. Reactivity heterogeneity is expressed in terms of distributions of flux over cumulative time of exposure of the solution to reactive surface area, termed here 'cumulative reactivity'. In cases involving single aqueous species the combined effects of physical and reactivity heterogeneity on reactive solute transport can often be established and further investigated through joint distributions of flux over travel time and cumulative reactivity. The inverse technique requires the breakthrough curve of a passive tracer to determine the distribution of flux over travel time, and additional breakthrough curves of reactive tracers provide additional moments of the distribution of flux over cumulative reactivity given travel time. Thus breakthroughs of one passive and two reactive tracers can provide the mean and variance of the distribution of flux over cumulative reactivity. This Lagrangian characterization is achieved with knowledge of the types of reactive surfaces present, but not their spatial locations. The distributions can subsequently be applied via forward modeling using the same technique to predict breakthrough curves of other solutes undergoing first-order reactions in similar physically and chemically heterogeneous configurations.     

A framework for dependability engineering of critical computing systems

This paper presents a development model focused on the production of dependable systems. Three classes of processes are distinguished: (1) the system creation process which builds on the classical development steps (requirements, design, realization, integration); (2) dependability processes (i.e. fault prevention, fault tolerance, fault removal and fault forecasting); and (3) other supporting processes such as quality assurance and certification. The proposed approach relies on the identification of basic activities for the system creation process and for the dependability processes, and then on the analysis of the interactions among the activities of each process and with the other processes. Finally, to support the development of dependable systems, we define for each system creation activity, a checklist that specifies the key issues that need to be addressed with respect to each dependability process.     

Comparison and ranking of different modelling techniques for prediction of site index in Mediterranean mountain forests

Forestry science has a long tradition of studying the relationship between stand productivity and abiotic and biotic site characteristics, such as climate, topography, soil and vegetation. Many of the early site quality modelling studies related site index to environmental variables using basic statistical methods such as linear regression. Because most ecological variables show a typical non-linear course and a non-constant variance distribution, a large fraction of the variation remained unexplained by these linear models. More recently, the development of more advanced non-parametric and machine learning methods provided opportunities to overcome these limitations. Nevertheless, these methods also have drawbacks. Due to their increasing complexity they are not only more difficult to implement and interpret, but also more vulnerable to overfitting. Especially in a context of regionalisation, this may prove to be problematic. Although many non-parametric and machine learning methods are increasingly used in applications related to forest site quality assessment, their predictive performance has only been assessed for a limited number of methods and ecosystems.In this study, five different modelling techniques are compared and evaluated, i.e. multiple linear regression (MLR), classification and regression trees (CART), boosted regression trees (BRT), generalized additive models (GAM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). Each method is used to model site index of homogeneous stands of three important tree species of the Taurus Mountains (Turkey): Pinus brutia, Pinus nigra and Cedrus libani. Site index is related to soil, vegetation and topographical variables, which are available for 167 sample plots covering all important environmental gradients in the research area. The five techniques are compared in a multi-criteria decision analysis in which different model performance measures, ecological interpretability and user-friendliness are considered as criteria.When combining these criteria, in most cases GAM is found to outperform all other techniques for modelling site index for the three species. BRT is a good alternative in case the ecological interpretability of the technique is of higher importance. When user-friendliness is more important MLR and CART are the preferred alternatives. Despite its good predictive performance, ANN is penalized for its complex, non-transparent models and big training effort.     

Risk Management of Sediment Stress: A Framework for Sediment Risk Management Research

Research related to the ecological risk management of sediment stress in watersheds is placed under a common conceptual framework in order to help promote the timely advance of decision support methods for aquatic resource managers and watershed-level planning. The proposed risk management research program relies heavily on model development and verification, and should be applied under an adaptive management approach. The framework is centered on using best management practices (BMPs), including eco-restoration. It is designed to encourage the development of numerical representations of the performance of these management options, the integration of this information into sediment transport simulation models that account for uncertainty in both input and output, and would use strategic environmental monitoring to guide sediment-related risk management decisions for mixed land use watersheds. The goal of this project was to provide a sound scientific framework based on recent state of the practice in sediment-related risk assessment and management for research and regulatory activities. As a result, shortcomings in the extant data and measurement and modeling tools were identified that can help determine future research direction. The compilation of information is beneficial to the coordination of related work being conducted within and across entities responsible for managing watershed-scale risks to aquatic ecosystems.