A Quantitative Review of Urban Ecosystem Service Assessments: Concepts,Models, and Implementation

Although a number of comprehensive reviews have examined global ecosystem services (ES), few have focused on studies that assess urban ecosystem services (UES). Given that more than half of the world’s population lives in cities, understanding the dualism of the provision of and need for UES is of critical importance. Which UES are the focus of research, and what types of urban land use are examined? Are models or decision support systems used to assess the provision of UES? Are trade-offs considered? Do studies of UES engage stakeholders? To address these questions, we analyzed 217 papers derived from an ISI Web of Knowledge search using a set of standardized criteria. The results indicate that most UES studies have been undertaken in Europe, North America, and China, at city scale. Assessment methods involve bio-physical models, Geographical Information Systems, and valuation, but few study findings have been implemented as land use policy.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0504-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Uncertainty in Nonpoint Source Pollution Models and Associated Risks

The usefulness of water quality simulation models for environmental management is explored with a focus on prediction uncertainty. The specific objective is to demonstrate how the usability of a flow and transport model (here: MACRO) can be enhanced by developing and analyzing its output probability distributions based on input variability. This infiltration-based model was designed to investigate preferential flow effects on pollutant transport. A statistical sensitivity analysis is used to identify the most uncertain input parameters based on model outputs. Probability distribution functions of input variables were determined based on field-measured data obtained under alternative tillage treatments. Uncertainty of model outputs is investigated using a Latin hypercube sampling scheme (LHS) with restricted pairing for model input sampling. Probability density functions (pdfs) are constructed for water flow rate, atrazine leaching rate, total accumulated leaching, and atrazine concentration in percolation water. Results indicate that consideration of input parameter uncertainty produces a 20% higher mean flow rate along with two to three times larger atrazine leaching rate, accumulated leachate, and concentration than that obtained using mean input parameters. Uncertainty in predicted flow rate is small but that in solute transport is an order of magnitude larger than that of corresponding input parameters. Macropore flow is observed to contribute to the variability of atrazine transport results. Overall, the analysis provides a quantification of prediction uncertainty that is found to enhance a user's ability to assess risk levels associated with model predictions.     

Monitoring of the Endangered Pinna nobilis Linné, 1758 in the Mar Grande of Taranto (Ionian Sea, Italy)

Two methods were used to calculate the meteorologically adjusted ground level ozone trends in southern Taiwan. The first method utilized is a robust linear regression method. The second approach uses a multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network (ANN) method. The observations obtained from 16 monitoring stations were analyzed and divided into six groups by hierarchical divisive clustering procedure. The daily maximum 1 and 8 h ozone concentrations for each group are then calculated. The meteorologically adjusted trends obtained by linear regression and MLP methods are smaller than the unadjusted trends for all groups and average time. It indicts that the meteorological conditions in Taiwan tend to increase ambient ozone concentrations in recent years.     

周边污染对北京大气PM_(10)的影响研究

文章基于Models3/CMAQ空气质量模式,利用北京及周边省市详细调查的污染源数据,采取双层网格嵌套技术建立起适用于我国华北区域的大气PM10数值模拟系统。在此基础上,文章设计了5种污染源情景方案,并对各种情景分别进行数值模拟,定量计算周边各省市对北京大气PM10的具体影响情况,得到2002年采暖季(1月份)和非采暖季(7月份)周边省市对北京大气PM10逐时浓度贡献情况。结果表明,外来污染物输送对北京大气PM10浓度影响较大,在采暖季和非采暖季外来影响分别为23.4%和40.0%。在周边各省市中,河北、天津、山西等地污染源排放对北京市大气PM10均具有不同程度的影响。     

臭氧和氮氧化物四季浓度特征及其相关性

根据５ａ来Ｏ３－ＮＯｘ四季的观测资料，计算了各季Ｏ３和ＮＯｘ的浓度特征及两者之间的线性回归方程。其日平均值的相关显著性，以夏季最强，冬季其次，春秋季畸差。     

Linear alkylbenzenes in riverine runoff of the Pearl River Delta (China) and their application as anthropogenic molecular markers in coastal environments

The average concentrations of ∑LABs (sum of C₁₀-C₁₃-LABs) in runoff samples collected from the eight major riverine outlets of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China ranged from 1.4 to 6124 ng/L in the dissolved phase and from 0.01 to 11.4 μg/g dry weight in the particulate phase during March 2005-February 2006. The annual riverine flux of ∑LABs from the PRD to the coastal ocean was estimated at approximately 14 tons/yr. The inventories of ∑LABs in agricultural lands of Guangdong Province ranged from 313 to 1825 kg/yr. The early and late rice fields were the major sink of LABs, accounting for approximately 68% of total LABs inventory in agricultural lands. The social-economically estimated annual discharge of LABs from household detergents in the PRD was ∼696 tons/yr, more than an order of magnitude higher than that estimated from field measurements (about 14 tons/yr), which was attributed to several factors.     

碳排放强度与能耗强度线性关系研究

碳排放强度与能耗强度是国家和地方2个重要的政策管控指标,二者存在潜在的逻辑关系,但就二者定量关系还存在分析不足,部分认识不统一的现象。通过建立碳排放强度同比变化率与能耗强度同比变化率之间关系的数学模型,分析能耗强度同比变化场景下碳排放强度同比变化趋势。对单位地区生产总值碳排放强度与单位地区生产总值能耗强度之间的线性关系进行了研究。结果表明,碳排放强度同比变化率与能耗强度同比变化率不是必然呈现“同正或同负”的关系,即能耗强度上升,碳排放强度也有可能下降;能耗强度下降,碳排放强度也有可能上升。研究为推动碳排放强度、能耗强度“双下降”的研究和决策提供参考。     

The Kyoto protocol: Empirical evidence of a hidden success

How effective was the Kyoto protocol? International Environmental Agreements (IEA) have been on the rise over the past four decades; however, thus far their effectiveness is controversial. In view of the conflicting results found in the related literature, this paper addresses its effectiveness by utilizing for the first time the generalized synthetic control method (GSCM) to compare the emissions of the industrialized countries with a “No- Kyoto” counterfactual scenario that represents the expected emissions in the absence of the protocol. This method facilitates a robust comparison between treated and control countries as done by Almer and Winkler (2017) and account for the multiple treated units as done by Grunewald and Martinez-Zarzoso (2016), so as to capture the collective nature of the protocol. Results show that the protocol was successful in reducing the emissions of the ratifying countries approximately by 7% below the emissions expected under a “No-Kyoto” scenario, confirming the importance of accounting for the collective nature of the agreement.     

基于航班运行规律的典型机场NOx浓度临近预测方法研究

针对天津机场区域考虑航班运行影响,应用广义加性模型（Generalized Additive Model,GAM）建立污染物浓度预测模型,对因子间的共线性问题和交互作用进行改进,得到最优的NO_x浓度预测模型.选取天津机场区域2019年11月—2020年3月环境、气象及航班数据,建立改进的GAM.结果显示：（1）改进的GAM预测效果优,可以更加准确地预测浓度峰值及变化趋势;（2）样本量会影响模型选择的因子数量及模型性能;（3）改进模型adj-R²为0.940,实测和预测NO_x浓度的相关系数为0.975,预测效果好;（4）航班活动对机场区域污染物浓度影响较大.改进的GAM考虑污染物浓度与影响因子之间的复杂非线性关系及影响因子之间交互作用对污染物浓度变化的影响,使模型精度进一步提升. GAM对污染物浓度的准确预测可为机场区域污染防治提供依据.     

Attitude towards the incorporation of the selective collection of biowaste in a municipal solid waste management system. A case study

European waste legislation has been encouraging for years the incorporation of selective collection systems for the biowaste fraction. European countries are therefore incorporating it into their current municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems. However, this incorporation involves changes in the current waste management habits of households. In this paper, the attitude of the public towards the incorporation of selective collection of biowaste into an existing MSWM system in a Spanish municipality is analysed. A semi-structured telephone interview was used to obtain information regarding aspects such as: level of participation in current waste collection systems, willingness to participate in selective collection of biowaste, reasons and barriers that affect participation, willingness to pay for the incorporation of the selective collection of biowaste and the socioeconomic characteristics of citizens who are willing to participate and pay for selective collection of biowaste. The results showed that approximately 81% of the respondents were willing to participate in selective collection of biowaste. This percentage would increase until 89% if the Town Council provided specific waste bins and bags, since the main barrier to participate in the new selective collection system is the need to use specific waste bin and bags for the separation of biowaste. A logit response model was applied to estimate the average willingness to pay, obtaining an estimated mean of 7.5% on top of the current waste management annual tax. The relationship of willingness to participate and willingness to pay for the implementation of this new selective collection with the socioeconomic variables (age, gender, size of the household, work, education and income) was analysed. Chi-square independence tests and binary logistic regression was used for willingness to participate, not being obtained any significant relationship. Chi-square independence tests, ordinal logistic regression and ordinary linear regression was applied for willingness to pay, obtaining statistically significant relationship for most of the socioeconomic variables.