2017-2019年扬州市大气污染物与儿童呼吸系统门诊量的时间序列分析

收集扬州市2017—2019年大气污染物细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))、二氧化硫(SO_2)、二氧化氮(NO_2)和臭氧(O_3)的日均质量浓度、气象因素(日均温度、相对湿度)以及每日儿童呼吸系统门诊量数据,运用广义相加模型(GAM)进行单污染物和多污染物分析。结果表明,单污染物分析中,大气污染物的质量浓度累积滞后效应均大于单独滞后效应。ρ(PM_(2.5))、ρ(SO_2)和ρ(NO_2)对儿童呼吸系统门诊量影响效应均在累积滞后7 d(lag 07)达到最大值,ρ(O_3)在累积滞后6 d(lag 06)达到最大值。表现为ρ(PM_(2.5))、ρ(SO_2)和ρ(NO_2)在lag 07时,每升高10μg/m~3,儿童呼吸系统门诊量超额危险度分别为0.720%[95%置信区间(95%CI):0.346%～1.095%]、6.955%(95%CI:5.197%～8.743%)和2.133%(95%CI:1.516%～2.754%);ρ(O_3)在lag 06时,每升高10μg/m~3,儿童呼吸系统门诊量超额危险度为1.160%(95%CI:0.873%～1.447%)。多污染物分析中,当引入所有污染物(SO_2+NO_2+O_3)时,PM_(2.5)对儿童呼吸系统门诊量风险影响消失。大气污染物浓度的升高会增加儿童呼吸系统疾病的发生风险,并且其影响存在一定的滞后效应,有必要开展有针对性的大气污染物与儿童呼吸系统疾病的预警研究,保护易感人群,合理分配卫生资源。     

Societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines based on incident data from the United States

A significant number of pipeline operators use pipeline integrity management (PIM) to improve pipeline safety and reliability. Risk assessment is a critical step in PIM, because it determines the necessity of conducting the following steps in PIM for certain pipelines. Risk acceptance criteria are required in the process of risk assessment. Individual risk and societal risk are most frequently adopted as the two indicators of the risk acceptance criteria. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, quantitative societal risk acceptance criteria, especially for gas distribution pipelines, do not exit. The aim of this paper is to establish the societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines. Hence, FN curves were established using historical incident data from 2002 to 2017 provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). Linear regression and the ALARP principle are used in evaluating the limits of the negligible line and intolerable line to obtain a graphical societal risk acceptance criterion for gas distribution pipelines. A line having a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 8.413 × 10⁻⁷) is proposed as the negligible line. Further, the intolerable line has a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 2.524 × 10⁻⁶). Both the negligible risk and the intolerable risk for the gas distribution pipeline are lower than the current societal risk acceptance criteria for hazardous installations. The reasons for these relatively lower risk acceptance criteria are discussed.     

分光光度法测定余氯的线性范围探讨

用分光光度法测定水样中的余氯，按照国际GB11898－89中的要求，整个浓度范围内（余氯0－5.00mg/L)所制得的标准曲线的相关系数在0.99-0.999之间。经对其标准曲线的线性范围进行探讨发现，当余氯的浓度范围为0－1.00mg/L时，标准曲线的线性较好，相关系数＞0．999；当余氯的浓度＞1.00mg/L，所绘制的标准曲线呈负偏离现象，相关系数＜0．999。     

GIS支持下的上海市工业源SO2污染研究

以MapInfo地理信息系统软件为平台,集成空气污染扩散模式,对上海城市工业源的分布、SO2排放及其污染扩散影响进行了多方案的计算分析,比较了污染源集中的工业区和不同类型的污染源对环境空气质量的贡献。根据对年日浓度的计算分析,发现大型高架源的污染排放决定了城市SO2浓度场的基本分布,空间上工业分布集聚的一些老工业区是城市建成区中多个高浓度中心的主要贡献者。     

Analysis of potential impacts to resident fish from Columbia River System Operation alternatives

The US Army Corps of Engineers, the US Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bonneville Power Administration initiated the Columbia River System Operation Review (SOR) in 1990. The SOR will assist agencies in comparing the benefits and risks to Columbia River uses and natural resources from alternative strategies for using Columbia River water. Focusing on 14 federal dams within the basin, the agencies are attempting to improve on the efficient and coordinated use of the Columbia River system. An initial screening of all potential strategies of reservoir operation was necessary to reduce the number of possibilities to a limited set for detailed analysis. To that end, the Resident Fish Work Group of the SOR developed spreadsheet models capable of assessing the impacts of different management strategies on resident fish at six storage reservoirs. The models include biological, physical, and hydrological relationships important to resident fish specific to each reservoir. Alternatives that kept the reservoirs near full pool and held stable during the growing season resulted in positive benefits to resident fish at all locations modeled. Conversely, alternatives designed to improve anadromous fish survival with increased instream flow generally had a negative impact on the resident fish in the reservoirs modeled. The models developed for resident fish in the screening analysis phase of the SOR were useful in assessing the relative impact to resident fish from a large number of alternatives. The screening analysis demonstrated that future analytical efforts must consider trade-offs among river uses/resource groups, among reservoirs throughout the basin, and among resident fish species within a reservoir.Pacific Northwest Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute for the US Department of Energy under contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830.     

How to evaluate models: Observed vs. predicted or predicted vs. observed?

A common and simple approach to evaluate models is to regress predicted vs. observed values (or vice versa) and compare slope and intercept parameters against the 1:1 line. However, based on a review of the literature it seems to be no consensus on which variable (predicted or observed) should be placed in each axis. Although some researchers think that it is identical, probably because r² is the same for both regressions, the intercept and the slope of each regression differ and, in turn, may change the result of the model evaluation. We present mathematical evidence showing that the regression of predicted (in the y-axis) vs. observed data (in the x-axis) (PO) to evaluate models is incorrect and should lead to an erroneous estimate of the slope and intercept. In other words, a spurious effect is added to the regression parameters when regressing PO values and comparing them against the 1:1 line. Observed (in the y-axis) vs. predicted (in the x-axis) (OP) regressions should be used instead. We also show in an example from the literature that both approaches produce significantly different results that may change the conclusions of the model evaluation.     

History Matters: Relating Land-Use Change to Butterfly Species Occurrence

Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions.     

Sorption of carbamazepine, 17α-ethinylestradiol, iopromide and trimethoprim to biomass involves interactions with exocellular polymeric substances

The sorption of carbamazepine (CBZ), iopromide (IOP), trimethoprim (TMP) and 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2) was evaluated using four biomass types (pure ammonia oxidizing bacterial culture, two heterotrophic enrichment cultures with varying levels of oxygenase activity, and a full-scale nitrifying activated sludge (NAS) culture). CBZ and IOP did not sorb to the four biomass types. EE2 did not sorb to the pure culture but sorbed significantly to the heterotrophic cultures and NAS. TMP sorbed to the heterotrophic cultures and NAS, and was not evaluated for the pure culture. Three floc characteristics (hydrophobicity, median particle size, organic matter content) correlated moderately well with the EE2 organic matter sorption coefficient (K_OM,EE2). Zeta potential did not correlate well with K_OM,EE2 but did with K_OM,TMP, indicating that TMP sorption is more influenced by electrostatic factors than EE2. Once divalent cation-linked exocellular polymeric substances (EPS) were removed from flocs, EE2 and TMP sorption to the non-EPS (cellular) fraction decreased by approximately 50%. The correlation between K_OM,EE2 for the non-EPS cellular fraction deteriorated while the correlation between K_OM,TMP improved. EE2 seemed to sorb more strongly to EPS protein whereas TMP sorbed equally to polysaccharide and protein EPS. Attempts to develop predictive models were not successful. Pharmaceuticals that sorbed to biomass samples underwent biodegradation whereas those that did not sorb were not biodegraded, suggesting a relationship between sorption and pharmaceutical biotransformation.     

Developing Alternative Forest Management Planning Strategies Incorporating Timber, Water and Carbon Values: An Examination of their Interactions

Currently, the integration of carbon and water values of forest ecosystems into forest management planning models has become increasingly important in sustainable forest management. This study focuses on developing a multiple-use forest management planning model to examine the interactions of timber and water production as well as net carbon sequestration in a forest ecosystem. Each forest value is functionally linked to stand structure and quantified economically. A number of forest management planning strategies varying in the amount of water, carbon, and timber targets and flows as constraints are developed and implemented in a linear programming (LP) environment. The outputs of each strategy are evaluated with a number of performance indicators such as standing timber volume, ending forest inventory, area harvested, and net present value (NPV) of water, timber, and carbon over time. Results showed that the cycling time of forest stands for renewal has important implications for timber, water, and carbon values. The management strategies indicated that net carbon sequestration can be attained at a significant cost in terms of foregone timber harvest and financial returns. The standing timber volumes and ending forest inventories were among the most important factors determining whether the forest constitutes a net carbon sink or source. Finally, the interactions among the forest values were generally found to be complementary, yet sometimes contradictory (i.e., negatively affecting each other), depending on the assumed relationship between forest values and stand structure.