Disaster devastation of US communities: long-term demographic consequences

This paper describes demographic changes resulting from devastating natural disasters in which at least half of the community's structures suffered major damage or total destruction. Considering 92 US communities that suffered disasters (mainly from hurricanes, river flooding, and tornadoes) between 1992 and 2008, locations that were already experiencing declining populations before their disaster were most likely to experience large post-disaster population losses. Communities suffering severe flooding were most likely to lose over a third of their population. Population movement typically occurred regardless of whether the community formally relocated. Small communities were particularly at risk of losing population following destruction, particularly when they lacked schools. Communities with higher home vacancy rates before their devastation were significantly more likely to experience large population declines. Wealthier communities and those located nearer metropolitan cities were most likely to retain their populations following major destruction, yet overall pre-disaster home values and median incomes in the communities were well below national averages. Race and Hispanic population were not significantly related to post-disaster population change in the overall study.     

A multilevel analysis of private-vehicle evacuation clearance times along the US Gulf Coast

This study uses multilevel regression analysis to examine the effect of social characteristics and the built environment on clearance time under an evacuation scenario. The primary unit of analysis is the US Census tract (N?=?1660), nested within 31 incorporated places spanning five US states. The dependent variable is an estimate of clearance time in hours derived using network analysis techniques within a geographic information system. We find that tracts with a more peripheral location, more female residents, a higher proportion of Hispanic residents, and higher median household incomes are associated with higher clearance times, on average. Our research suggests the relationship between suburbanization and clearance time is complex and evolving, mediated by past investments in the built environment and shifting social conditions. In addition to facilitating the evacuation of areas with low access to personal vehicles, urban planners and emergency management officials should also consider how the degree of connectivity in the street network impacts congestion and clearance time.     

Engaging pet owners in disaster risk and preparedness communications: simplifying complex human–animal relations with archetypes

The influence of human–animal relationships upon owners' perceptions and behaviours can lead to situations that place owners and animals at risk of harm. Pet ownership particularly is considered a risk factor for unsafe responses to natural hazards, though conversely, it can also be viewed as a protective factor that motivates disaster preparedness. However, each relationship should not be treated equivalently, as characteristics considered most meaningful within them differ across various types of pet–owner relationship and along multiple dimensions. A one-size-fits-all approach to applying the pets-as-protective-factor principle is then too broad in scope. This review outlines a novel psychographic profiling approach for archetypes of pet–owner relationship characteristics as a means of describing risk-preparedness foci and risk propensities within disaster contexts. Understanding those differences as detailed archetypes can help emergency services more effectively target pet owners through reframing disaster risk and preparedness communications in relation to prominent characteristics of relationship archetypes. We argue that this approach can improve the effectiveness of risk and preparedness communications by increasing pet owners' receptivity to, and cognitive involvement with, message content.     

Disaster management in the Caribbean: Perspectives on institutional capacity reform and development

This paper is a reflective contribution on the issues and processes that have influenced and informed the development and institutionalization of disaster management practice and policy in the Caribbean over the last two and a half decades. It takes the viewpoint of a ‘participant observer’ and seeks to not only describe the events and triggers but also to raise some key questions necessary to chart the way forward.     

The humanitarian response costs of climate change

This research attempts to improve understanding of how climate change may affect international humanitarian spending, using existing international databases that track disaster occurrence and humanitarian costs. A range of potential impact scenarios is developed employing four distinct methodological approaches. The findings indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on humanitarian costs and the increase could range from a 32 per cent increase (taking into account only changes in frequency of disasters) to upwards of a 1,600 per cent increase when other criteria, such as intensity, are also taken into account. The paper further highlights that extreme weather events do not occur in isolation and the increasing interconnectedness of world economic and political systems has made disasters more complex and destructive. It makes a number of recommendations, including the need for more rigorous and systematic collection of disaster-related data and more constructive interaction between the humanitarian and climate change communities on future research, planning and action.     

南疆西部不同植被类型NDVI对风沙灾害的响应

不同植被类型对风沙灾害的响应研究有助于风沙灾害的遥感监测评估和防灾减灾工作。采用传统统计学和空间自相关方法,利用MODIS的每日反射率和土地类型产品,分析了风沙灾害后南疆西部不同植被类型NDVI的变化规律及其空间分布特征。结果表明：风沙灾害后,研究区不同植被类型NDVI的差异在增大,NDVI变化值在一0．3865~0．4148之间,NDVI减小的面积占整个研究区面积的54．98％,变异系数增大值在2．44％～36．75％之间;受到风沙灾害的影响,研究区植被NDVI全局Moran’SI系数从0．7982减小到0．6786,但在空间上仍存在显著的正相关性,具有显著的空间集聚特征;由NDVI差值的局部空间自相关指标集聚图以及不同植被类型NDVI差值的空间关联区域面积百分比,可以发现落叶针叶林和裸地或低植被覆盖地受风沙灾害的影响较小,郁闭灌丛和作物受风沙灾害的影响较大。上述关于风沙灾害后南疆西部不同植被类型的变化及其空间格局的研究结果,不仅证明了防护林的风沙阻挡作用,也可以为风沙灾害的防治工作提供参考依据。     

矿井通风网络的社团结构及灾害控制研究

为研究矿井通风网络的社团结构特征和有效控制灾害在通风网络中的传播范围,根据通风网络的连接特点对传统的GN算法进行改进,以淮南某矿井的通风网络结构为例进行说明,发现矿井通风网络具有较强的社团结构特征;引入强弱社团结构和外内连接边数比后,社团结构的划分更符合实际。根据矿井通风网络社团间的连接关系,就会找到灾害传播的关键分支与节点并加以控制,降低灾害对相邻社团危害程度,控制灾害的蔓延范围。     

基于投影寻踪技术的洪水灾情综合评价

洪水灾情评价结果对救灾和援灾决策有重要指导意义。实际灾情评价中,单项指标的评价结果往往是不相容的,而多指标综合评价的重点在于模型指标权重的获取。将投影寻踪技术用于洪水灾情评价中,并将决策者的偏好添加到模型中,建立一个能在专家对某个(些)指标偏好干预下寻求客观权重的灾情综合评价模型,并研究模型的优化问题。结果表明,在多指标评价中,投影寻踪技术是一种能根据样本数据进行综合评价的客观方法,并能兼顾决策者对某个(些)指标的偏好。     

长江中游平原农业水灾风险管理的制度建设

规避农业洪涝巨灾风险是长江中游平原农业生产发展的必然选择。通过剖析我国农地制度和小规模农户经营的风险特征,认识到我国农地制度存在小规模经营缺陷和缺乏产权激励机制,农户在应对洪涝巨灾自然风险时表现为无能为力,并且现有农业分担风险的外部环境更使农户无法承受自然巨灾风险而被迫成为农业生产经营风险的回避者,因此应对农业洪涝巨灾风险必须在政府主导下实现。提出长江中游平原农业水灾风险管理制度建设安排建议：加强长江中上游地区生态环境建设、保持水土和恢复湿地生态系统;发展避洪农业,实现区域农业结构的优化;实施积极的财政政策,增加农业投入;完善农业保险制度安排,以农业政策性保险分担农业水灾风险,增强长江中游地区农户抵御自然灾害的能力。     

长江中游地区洪涝灾害的土地利用思考

长江中游地区是我国长江产业带的腹地和承东启西的重要地区。进入20世纪90年代以来,长江中游地区的洪水屡屡成灾,经济损失越来越大。尽管洪涝灾害的发生与气象、地貌等自然条件密不可分,但人类不合理的土地开发利用对洪涝灾害的影响不容忽视。通过定性与定量相结合的方法分析了洪水位、河流湖泊的调蓄能力、洪涝灾害的经济损失等与土地开发利用的关系,论述了长江中游地区土地利用,特别是围湖造田、围垦江洲、分蓄洪区的开发等,与洪涝灾害的关系,指出长江中游地区不合理的土地利用所引起的河湖调蓄能力的下降是加剧中游地区洪涝灾害的重要因素。据此提出了中游地区减轻洪涝灾害的土地利用对策,如编制易灾区土地利用总体规划、实施“退田还湖、移民建镇”战略、发展“避洪农业”、建设分蓄洪区、提高土地利用率等。最后,分析了实施这些措施的可能性及实施过程中有待进一步解决的问题。