清洁发展机制中的额外性问题探讨

清洁发展机制(CDM)是国际社会应对全球气候变化所作努力的一个重要部分。就清洁发展机制实施中的关键问题之一——额外性问题（additionality)进行了细致的探讨。分析了额外性的基本含义，各个不同国家在这个问题上的观点，各种不同判断准则的合理性和可操作性等。提出了额外性的层次等重要概念。     

Reduction of CO2 emission by optimally tracking a pre-defined target

The recent global financial crisis has highlighted the need for balanced and efficient investments in the reduction of the greenhouse effect caused by emissions of CO₂ on a global scale. In a previous paper, the authors proposed a mathematical model describing the dynamic relation of CO₂ emission with investment in reforestation and clean technology. An efficient allocation of resources to reduce the greenhouse effect has also been proposed. Here, this model is used to provide estimates of the investments needed in land reforestation and in the adoption of clean technologies for an optimum emission and abatement of CO₂, for the period of 1996–2014. The required investments are computed to minimize deviations with respect to the emission targets proposed in the Kyoto Protocol for European Countries. The emission target can be achieved by 2014 with investments in reforestation peaking in 2004, and a reduction of the expected GDP of 42%, relative to 2006. Investments in clean technology should increase between 2008 and 2010 with maximum transfer figures around 70 million American dollars. Total (cumulative) costs are, however, relatively high depending on the price of carbon abatement and the rate at which the expected CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere should be reduced. Results highlight the advantages for policy makers to be able to manage investments in climate policy more efficiently, controlling optimum transfers based on a portfolio of actions that tracks a pre-defined CO₂ concentration target.     

Nitrogen dynamics of a mountain forest on dolomitic limestone--a scenario-based risk assessment

The dominant nitrogen (N) fluxes were simulated in a mountain forest ecosystem on dolomitic bedrock in the Austrian Alps. Based on an existing small-scale climate model the simulation encompassed the present situation and a 50-yr projection. The investigated scenarios were current climate, current N deposition (SC1) and future climate (+2.5 degrees C and +10% annual precipitation) with three levels of N deposition (SC2, 3, 4). The microbially mediated N transformation, including the emission of nitrogen oxides, was calculated with PnET-N-DNDC. Soil hydrology was calculated with HYDRUS and was used to estimate the leaching of nitrate. The expected change of the forest ecosystem due to changes of the climate and the N availability was simulated with PICUS. The incentive for the project was the fact that forests on dolomitic limestone stock on shallow Rendzic Leptosols that are rich in soil organic matter are considered highly sensitive to the expected environmental changes. The simulation results showed a strong effect due to increased temperatures and to elevated levels of N deposition. The outflux of N, both as nitrate (6-25kg Nha(-1)yr(-1)) and nitrogen oxides (1-2kg Nha(-1)yr(-1)), from the forest ecosystem are expected to increase. Temperature exerts a stronger effect on the N(2)O emission than the increased rate of N deposition. The main part of the N emission will occur as N(2) (15kg Nha(-1)yr(-1)). The total N loss is partially offset by increased rates of N uptake in the biomass due to an increase in forest productivity.     

Externalities of Fugitive Dust

It is known that fugitive dust can cause human health and environmental problems, alone or in combination with other air pollutants. These problems are referred to as ‘external costs’ that have been traditionally ignored. However, there is a growing interest towards quantifying externalities to assist policy and decision-making. With this in mind, the present study aimed at discussing the environmental regulations that deal with fugitive dust, the impact of fugitive dust on human health and global climate system, and the available methods for calculating fugitive dust externalities. The damage cost associated with human health and global environmental problems was predicted based on the environmental strategy priority model. The damage cost estimated by the model ranged from 40 to 374 EUR/kg of emitted fugitive dust with a mean value of 120 EUR/kg of emitted fugitive dust. It was also found that PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ have contributed to about 60% and 36% of the estimated damage cost, respectively. The remaining 4% was attributed to both nitrate and sulfate aerosols.     

陆地植物系统对大气CO2浓度影响的模拟技术

分析了现有的植被对大气CO2浓度影响模型——地球化学模型和生态学模型的主要技术特征;针对较为有前途的生态学模型,就模型的基础数据,模型的结构和模型内的函数参数等三方面,讨论了现有模型的技术缺陷和可能的改进措施;最后,进一步研究了发展新的生态学模型的两条途径,并提出一种新的机理型生态学模型的构架。      

大气中CO2增加引起全球变暖和海平面上升及其对珠江三角洲可能的影响

本文是根据国内外大量实测数据，说明全世界大气层中二氧化碳不断增多，出现“温室效应”，使全球变暖，近地而大气层气温变化的情况；从而引起海面水温变化，使海洋上冰块瓦和融化，引起海平面上升。按世界各国学者研究的结果，近百年全球近地面大气层气温变化总的趋势是上升，北半球比较明显。海平面孔 有上升的趋势。按近40年中海平面可能上升0.4～1m的预测值，估计了海平面可能对珠江水位、沿海风暴潮潮位及咸潮入侵的影响，进而分析了对珠江三角洲、特别广州可能产生的危害。作者认为全球变暖和海平面上升当前还是一个不确定性问题，宜加强科学研究和实测。     

When implementation works: A comparison of Ramsar Convention implementation in different continents

What are the processes that shape implementation of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) in multilevel governance? In an attempt to address this question, we move from a top-down view of implementation as compliance with international rules to viewing it as a dynamic process shaped by action at various levels. The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands offers an important context to understand the mechanisms that shape multilevel implementation outcomes. We examine Ramsar Convention implementation in Austria, Mexico, and the Republic of Korea in order to identify relevant processes that define multilevel implementation. These cases represent three different types of government, and shed light on the ways in which international law is implemented by respective governments. The Austrian case, a federal government, illustrates the ways in which subnational authorities (the provinces) are influenced by binding regional institutions (EU-rules) to create a more robust context for protection in terms of designation of Ramsar sites. The Mexican case, a semi-federal government, shows how spurred involvement by local NGOs, states, and scientists can result in significant expansion of efforts. The Korean case, a unitary government, demonstrates the ways in which aligning institutional interests (in this case local governments with national ministries) can lead to strong implementation. Analysis of these cases provides two robust findings and one deserving additional study. First, overlapping governance efforts where activity has ties with multiple regional and international biodiversity efforts tend to see cumulative implementation. Second, institutional and organizational complexity can provide opportunities for local actors to drive the implementation agenda through a mix of processes of coordination and contentious politics. A third, more tentative finding, is that multilevel funding sources can ease implementation.     

华东地区月均日辐射总量实测值和估测值的比较

一些基于日照时数的数值计算方法常用于估测海平面月平均的日辐射总量。这些方法包括最初的线性模型、改进的Angstr(o|¨)m回归函数模型,二次函数模型,幂函数模型以及新的Angstr(o|¨)m对数模型。二次模型最有优势。在二次模型的基础上,本文对上海、南京、杭州等华东地区的月均日辐射总量的实测值和预测值进行了比较,得到不同城市的计算模型,结果显示月均日辐射总量的实测值和预测值具有很好的一致性和显著相关性。     

Effect of long-term fertilization on C mineralization and production of CH4 and CO2 under anaerobic incubation from bulk samples and particle size fractions of a typical paddy soil

Impacts of nutrient management on C mineralization and greenhouse gas (GHGs) emission from soils have been of much concern in global change. Using laboratory incubation, the production of CH₄ and CO₂ were studied from both bulk samples and the particle size fractions (PSF) of topsoil from a paddy under a long-term different fertilization trial (including non (NF), chemical without (CF) and with manure (CFM) fertilization, respectively) in the Tai Lake Region, China. Four PSFs (2000–200, 200–20, 20–2, <2 μm) were separated from undisturbed samples collected after rice harvest by a low-energy ultrasonic dispersion procedure. Both the bulk samples and PSFs were incubated under submerged condition for 72 days. The concentration of CH₄ and CO₂ evolved during incubation were determined by gas chromatography. C mineralization rates ranged from 0.13 to 0.52 mg C g⁻¹ C day⁻¹, with different fertilizations and size of the PSFs, and were not correlated with C/N ratio. While CO₂ production predominated over CH₄ from C mineralization from both bulk samples and the size fractions, CH₄ production played a predominant role in the total global warming potential (GWP) under all treatments. C mineralization of bulk soil was significantly higher under CF than under CFM and NF. CH₄ production, however, was 3 times as under CFM and 27 times as under NF, indicating a tremendous effect of chemical fertilization alone on the total GWP. CO₂ production from the PSFs differed from CH₄ under a single treatment, which was notably from the coarse PSFs larger than 200 μm. Higher C mineralization and CH₄ production with a higher metabolic quotient under CF implicated a vulnerability of soil functioning of GHGs mitigation in the paddy receiving chemical fertilizers only. Thus, rational organic amendments should be undertaken for mitigating the climate change.     

On the value of temporary carbon: a comment on Kirschbaum

A recent paper by Miko Kirschbaum (Mitigat Adapt Strategies Glob Change 11(5–6):1151–1164, 2006) argues that temporary carbon (C) storage has “virtually no climate-change mitigation value.” However, temporary carbon has value in delaying global warming that needs to be recognized in carbon accounting methodologies. The conclusions reached are very sensitive to any value that is attached to time. Basing analysis exclusively on the maximum temperature reached within a 100-year time frame ignores other important impacts of global warming that also need to be included when mitigation strategies are assessed. The relative weightings for long-term versus short-term impacts represent policy choices that result in a greater or a lesser value being attributed to temporary carbon, but that value should not be zero. Global warming is too formidable an enemy to allow us the luxury of discarding part of our arsenal in fighting against it. Both reducing fossil-fuel combustion and increasing biosphere carbon stocks are needed.