上海地区热带气旋灾情的评估和灾年预测

本文用数理统计方法，计算了１９４９￣１９９０年影响上海地区的热带气旋造成的人员伤亡、农田受淹、房屋倒损三方面的灾情指数。在此基础上划分了灾情等级，最后用灰色预测模型预测出在１９９７年上海将会发生一次中等（含３级）以上热带气旋灾情。     

Predicting non-carcinogenic hazard quotients of heavy metals in pepper (Capsicum annum L.) utilizing electromagnetic waves

• There was significant absorption of heavy metals by the pepper in contaminated soils. • The target hazard quotient (THQ) indices followed the order of Pb>Zn>>Cd » Ni. • Relationships exist between contaminated plants and electromagnetic wave. • PCA and random search can select the main spectra and predict THQ for each element. Given the tendency of heavy metals to accumulate in soil and plants, the purpose of this study was to determine the contamination levels of Cd, Ni, Pb, and Zn on peppers (leaves and fruit) grown in contaminated soils in industrial centers. For this purpose, we measured the uptake of the four heavy metals by peppers grown in the heavy metal contaminated soils throughout the four growth stages: two-leaf, growth, flowering, and fruiting, and calculated various vegetation indices to evaluate the heavy metal contamination potentials. Electromagnetic waves were also applied for analyzing the responses of the target plants to various heavy metals. Based on the relevant spectral bands identified by principal component analysis (PCA) and random search methods, a regression method was then employed to determine the most optimal spectral bands for estimating the target hazard quotient (THQ). The THQ was found to be the highest in the plants contaminated by Pb (THQ= 62) and Zn (THQ= 5.07). The results of PCA and random search indicated that the spectra at the bands of b₅₇₀, b₆₅₀, and b₇₆₀ for Pb, b₄₀₀ and b₁₀₃₀ for Ni, b₄₀₀ and b₈₈₀ for Cd, and b₅₆₀, b₉₁₀, and b₁₀₅₀ for Zn were the most optimal spectra for assessing THQ. Therefore, in future studies, instead of examining the amount of heavy metals in plants by chemical analysis in the laboratory, the responses of the plants to the electromagnetic waves in the identified bands can be readily investigated in the field based on the established correlations.     

Characteristics of pilots who report deliberate versus inadvertent visual flight into Instrument Meteorological Conditions

Aircraft accidents and incidents associated with visual flight into instrument weather conditions continue to account for a significant proportion of fatalities involving general aviation aircraft. The aim of this study was to examine pilot recounts of flights involving inadvertent or deliberate flight into Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC). Of the 251 responses that were examined, 145 pilots indicated that they had entered IMC inadvertently during a visual flight, while 93 had done so deliberately. Amongst non-instrument-rated pilots, two cohorts were identified whereby pilots who deliberately entered instrument conditions tended to have experienced the conditions previously, possess a comparatively greater tolerance of risk, experienced less anxiety during the event recounted, and perceive the risks associated with the transition into instrument conditions as relatively lower than those pilots whose entry into instrument conditions was inadvertent. These results are interpreted as confirmation of the need to address the problem of visual flight into instrument conditions from a number of different perspectives, taking into account experience and individual differences in risk tolerance.     

Locating the gas leakage source in the atmosphere using the dispersion wave method

A new and simple method for locating emission source was proposed in this work based on gas dynamic dispersion information. The simulation of the unsteady state dispersion of leakage gas emission from the geosequestration project showed that the transportation process of emission gases in the atmosphere is similar to wave propagation, and the time parameter of the dispersion wave is linearly related to the downwind distance. Therefore, monitoring the dispersion wave at different downwind positions can be used to estimate the leakage source position. An estimation formula for locating emission sources was derived. First, an estimation formula for locating emission sources was derived under some initial assumptions. Then, the deviation of the location formula was investigated using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model and analytic solution to get the offset distance under different conditions. The results showed that the average distance is stable for a certain atmosphere and terrestrial conditions. This method needs no more than 3 sensors’ dynamic information to locate the emission source, and hence it is highly useful for conditions with limited sensors. A numerical test demonstrated that the absolute error of the source estimation is within the range of 1–30 m. Finally, experimental tests were conducted to verify the feasibility of the source location with dispersion waves. Therefore, the dispersion wave monitor is a potentially simple and feasible way to estimate the source location for gas emission event management with limited sensors in the process industries.     

Process safety aspects in water-gas-shift (WGS) membrane reactors used for pure hydrogen production

The syngas produced by coal gasification processes can be utilized in Pd-based water-gas-shift membrane reactors for the production of pure H₂. Pd/alloy composite membrane reactors exhibit comparative advantages over traditional packed bed reactors such as simultaneous reaction/separation in one compact unit and increased reaction yields. Furthermore, the development of comprehensive process intensification strategies could further enhance membrane reactor performance resulting in a substantially smaller and functional, inherently safer, environmentally friendlier and more energy efficient process.A systematic non-isothermal modeling framework under both steady state and dynamic/transient conditions for a catalytic high temperature water-gas shift reaction in a Pd-based membrane reactor has been developed to characterize the dynamic behavior of the process system at various operating conditions from a process safety standpoint. In particular, various reaction conditions as well as key process variables such as feed temperature and flow rate, catalyst loading, driving force for H₂ permeation are considered as they are critically related to various safety aspects in the operation of a Pd-based membrane reactor. Within the proposed framework, process parameters and operating conditions which may induce hazards and compromise process safety are identified, analyzed and characterized. Finally, the proposed approach is evaluated through detailed simulation studies in an illustrative case study involving a real Pd-based membrane reactor used for pure hydrogen production and separation that exhibits complex behavior over a wide operating regime.     

中国热带气旋灾害及全球变暖背景下的可能趋势分析

在分析中国热带气旋灾害影响及时空分布的基础上，计算得出近４０年西北太平洋年平均热带气旋发生总数和其中台风发生数与海表温度，以及与年平均登陆中国热带气旋总数和其中台风登陆数长趋势变化之间的相互关系，并据此估算了全球变暖后中国热带气旋灾害的可能变化趋势。结果表明，若至２０５０年前后全球变暖引起西北太平洋海表温度升高１℃，则在中国登陆热带气旋总数年平均将比现状增加６５％，其中年平均登陆台风数将可能增加５８％左右。     

中国山洪灾害系统的整体特征及其危险度区划的初步研究

我国山洪灾害系统的整体特征是影响范围广、发生频繁和危害巨大。根据其发生特征，通过综合分析将我国划分为六个山洪灾害特征一致性区域，即西北区、内蒙区、青藏区、中部区、东部平原区和东南区。山洪灾害危险度以中部区最高，东南区次之，西北区和青藏区较低，东部平原区和内蒙区最低。     

HAZOP和LOPA集成风险评估技术研究

介绍和总结了危险与可操作性分析(HAZOP)、保护层分析(LOPA)两种方法的特点和它们之间的关系。对于HAZOP分析识别出来的重大事故场景,进一步采取半定量的LOPA分析方法加以补充和完善,确定装置设置的保护层是否足够。最后以加氢反应进料加热炉为例,说明通过两种分析方法数据和信息的共享,提高石油化工企业风险评估的客观性和准确性。     

The evaluation of an analytical protocol for the determination of substances in waste for hazard classification

The classification of waste as hazardous could soon be assessed in Europe using largely the hazard properties of its constituents, according to the the Classification, Labelling and Packaging (CLP) regulation. Comprehensive knowledge of the component constituents of a given waste will therefore be necessary. An analytical protocol for determining waste composition is proposed, which includes using inductively coupled plasma (ICP) screening methods to identify major elements and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC–MS) screening techniques to measure organic compounds. The method includes a gross or indicator measure of ‘pools’ of higher molecular weight organic substances that are taken to be less bioactive and less hazardous, and of unresolved ‘mass’ during the chromatography of volatile and semi-volatile compounds. The concentration of some elements and specific compounds that are linked to specific hazard properties and are subject to specific regulation (examples include: heavy metals, chromium(VI), cyanides, organo-halogens, and PCBs) are determined by classical quantitative analysis. To check the consistency of the analysis, the sum of the concentrations (including unresolved ‘pools’) should give a mass balance between 90% and 110%. Thirty-two laboratory samples comprising different industrial wastes (liquids and solids) were tested by two routine service laboratories, to give circa 7000 parameter results. Despite discrepancies in some parameters, a satisfactory sum of estimated or measured concentrations (analytical balance) of 90% was reached for 20 samples (63% of the overall total) during this first test exercise, with identified reasons for most of the unsatisfactory results. Regular use of this protocol (which is now included in the French legislation) has enabled service laboratories to reach a 90% mass balance for nearly all the solid samples tested, and most of liquid samples (difficulties were caused in some samples from polymers in solution and vegetable oil). The protocol is submitted to French and European normalization bodies (AFNOR and CEN) and further improvements are awaited.     

烈度当量—预测地震灾害的一种新途径

本文给出了预测地震灾害的一种新途径,即:M→Г→Z(M为震级,Г为烈度当量,Z为地震灾害)。烈度当量为一新概念,在震害预测中,它较之于烈度和震级更为有效。其具体方法是:首先利用一些经验公式将震级M换算成震中烈度I_0;其次再计算一次地震造成的总烈度当量(它包括对某一地震造成的不同烈度区进行烈度当量换算和计算不同烈度区的面积);最后在考虑到地震震级、发震时刻、震前地震预报的程度、受灾面积、受灾区人口与经济密度、固定资产及建筑物设防等因素的前提下,预测地震灾害。