The fire frequency analysis branch of the pyrostatistics tree: sampling decisions and censoring in fire interval data

Statistical characterization of past fire regimes is important for both the ecology and management of fire-prone ecosystems. Survival analysis—or fire frequency analysis as it is often called in the fire literature—has increasingly been used over the last few decades to examine fire interval distributions. These distributions can be generated from a variety of sources (e.g., tree rings and stand age patterns), and analysis typically involves fitting the Weibull model. Given the widespread use of fire frequency analysis and the increasing availability of mapped fire history data, our goal has been to review and to examine some of the issues faced in applying these methods in a spatially explicit context. In particular, through a case study on the massive Cedar Fire in 2003 in southern California, we examine sensitivities of parameter estimates to the spatial resolution of sampling, point- and area-based methods for assigning sample values, current age surfaces versus historical intervals in generating distributions, and the inclusion of censored (i.e., incomplete) observations. Weibull parameter estimates were found to be roughly consistent with previous fire frequency analyses for shrublands (i.e., median age at burning of ~30–50 years and relatively low age dependency). Results indicate, however, that the inclusion or omission of censored observations can have a substantial effect on parameter estimates, far more than other decisions about specifics of sampling.

Impact of nano particles on safety and environment for fireworks chemicals

Pyrotechnic devices, commonly known as fireworks, have a huge popularity. The sonic effect produced by the fireworks mainly depends upon the chemical composition of the mixtures and the particle size. Specifically this means that the larger the particle size, the more the quantity of powder mixture is to be used. Therefore, a high quality product which can produce the expected noise level with lesser quantity of chemicals is a major challenge faced by the pyrotechnic industry. This can be achieved by adopting either of the two approaches namely, one, by changing the chemical composition or, the other, by changing the particle size. At present the particle size of the chemical composition is at the micron level. However, by converting the composition into nano size, the volume of mixture used will be greatly reduced without compromising the sound level produced. The major advantage of using nano size powders is that it is essentially environmental friendly, producing less pollution and ensuring a cleaner environment. Concurrently, the major risk in using nano size powders is that it is a fire hazard. In this paper, the pros and cons of using nano powders in the manufacture of fireworks have been analyzed, collecting data from various research works and presenting the same as a review article.     

Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modelling in an individual based context—Consequences of parameter variability

Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models simulate the time-course of toxicant concentration in the organism and toxicity at the level of the organism. A link between TKTD models that simulate survival and individual based models for populations (IBMs) is proposed which allows TKTD parameters to vary between individuals. The TKTD-IBM predicts different survival in response to toxicants when TKTD parameters vary amongst individuals compared to the survival predicted with fixed TKTD parameters. The model with fixed parameters represents the concept of stochastic death whereas the model with variable parameters behaves, at least partly, according to the individual tolerance distribution concept. The whole set of TKTD parameters of an individual can be interpreted as constituting “individual tolerance”.     

Developing and testing a hazard prediction task for novice drivers: A novel application of naturalistic driving videos

Introduction: Novice drivers’ inability to appropriately anticipate and respond to hazards has been implicated in their elevated crash risk. Our goal was to develop a driving hazard prediction task using naturalistic videos from the U.S. context that could distinguish between novice and experienced drivers. Method: Using the query builder from the SHRP 2 InSight Data Access Website, we identified a sample of 1034 videos for further review. Task criteria reduced these to 30 videos of near-crash events that were split into event and non-event segments and were used to develop the driving hazard prediction task (task). Participants, aged 16–20 years-old (22 novice and 19 experienced drivers) completed the task during which they watched event and non-event videos and were asked, “How likely was the driver of this car to get into a crash?” after each video. Overall ratings for hazardousness were calculated for experienced and novice drivers as well as a group difference score for hazardousness. Results: All participants rated event videos as more hazardous than non-event videos, but there was no main effect of group. Rather, there was a significant EventbyGroup interaction in which there were no group differences in hazard ratings for non-event videos, but experienced drivers rated event videos as more hazardous than novice drivers. Specific characteristics of the event videos, such as the hazard development period, were related to differences between novice and experienced drivers’ hazardousness ratings. Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first use of naturalistic driving videos from an existing database as experimental stimuli. We found that the task discriminated between novice and experienced drivers’ ratings of hazardousness. This distinction suggests naturalistic driving videos may be viable stimuli for experimental studies. Practical Applications: The application of naturalistic driving video database for experimental research may hold promise.     

Does the potential safety risk affect whether particular construction hazards are recognized or not?

Introduction: Evidence from the global construction industry suggests that an unacceptable number of safety hazards remain unrecognized in construction workplaces. Unfortunately, there isn’t a sufficient understanding of why particular safety hazards remain unrecognized. Such an understanding is important to address the issue of poor hazard recognition and develop remedial interventions. A recent exploratory effort provided anecdotal evidence that workers often fail to recognize safety hazards that are expected to impose relatively lower levels of safety risk. In other words, the research demonstrated that the underlying risk imposed by a safety hazard can affect whether a hazard will be recognized or not. Method: The presented research focused on empirically testing this preliminary finding. More specifically, the study tested the proposition that Construction workers are more likely to recognize safety hazards that impose higher levels of safety risk than those that impose relatively lower levels of safety risk. The research goals were accomplished through a number of steps. First, a set of 16 construction case images depicting a variety of construction operations that included a number of known safety hazards was presented to a panel of four construction safety experts. The experts were tasked with examining each of the known safety hazards and providing a rating of the relative safety risk that the individual hazards impose. Having obtained an estimate of the underlying safety risk, a hazard recognition activity was administered to 287 workers recruited from 57 construction workplaces in the United States. The hazard recognition activity involved the examination of a random sample of two construction case images that were previously examined by the expert panel and reporting relevant safety hazards. Results: The results of the study provided support for the proposition that workers are more likely to recognize hazards that impose relatively higher levels of safety risk. Practical Applications: The findings of the study can be leveraged to improve existing hazard recognition methods and develop more robust interventions to address the issue of poor hazard recognition levels.     

Risk analysis of Chongqing urban rail transit network

Urban rail network safety is a critical sector of urban public safety. However, there is no uniform standard for the safety evaluation of the urban rail network. This paper presents a novel methodology by integrating a multilevel decision tree with a fuzzy analytical approach to enhance urban rail network safety. The proposed methodology overcomes serious limitations such as subjectivity in the data and independence of the variables in decision-making processes. The proposed methodology is applied to the risk evaluation of the selected Chongqing rail transit lines and the Expo Line. The risk analysis is considered using the field data collected from these transit lines. The applied case studies confirm the general applicability of the methodology and the multilevel decision tree network. The main risk factors identified for the Chongqing rail traffic system are the terrorist threat, emergency management, and aging infrastructure which need to be investigated as a priority to mitigate risk associated with these infrastructures.     

Systematic incorporation of inherent safety in hazardous chemicals supply chain optimization

Increasing globalization has made many chemical supply chains large, interdependent and complex. Process incidents often affect the reliability of a supply chain and can cause large disruptions at different segments of the industry. We propose an optimization-based framework that systematically takes into account the trade-offs between process safety and supply chain economics for decision-making. We quantify the hazard at various supply chain echelons in the form of a safety index that takes both fire and toxic hazards into account. A mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP)-based model is developed to either maximize profit for specified hazard limits, or to minimize hazard in a supply chain with multiple production plants, technological options, warehouses and distribution nodes. The MINLP model is used to generate trade-off optimal solutions for various toxic and fire hazard limits. The framework is demonstrated by applying it to an end-to-end ammonia supply chain case study which resulted in several non-intuitive observations regarding hazardous supply chain design and optimization.     

区域滑坡地质灾害危险性评价与风险管理

<正>随着社会经济的飞速发展,人类生存空间不断向山区扩展,使得近年滑坡等山地灾害的发生越来越频繁,人们越来越认识到防范和减轻滑坡等地质灾害对社会经济发展的重要性,迫切需要寻求对滑坡地质灾害进行更为有效地控制和管理的现实途径。而区域滑坡地质灾害危险性评价是滑坡地质灾害风险评价和风险管理的基础,本文在这一领域做了有益的探讨,取得了以下主要成果:     

Identification and mapping of heavy metal pollution in soils of a sports ground in Galway City,Ireland, using a portable XRF analyser and GIS

Heavy metals in urban soils continue to attract attention because of their potential long-term effects on human health. During a previous investigation of urban soils in Galway City, Ireland, a pollution hotspot of Pb, Cu, Zn and As was identified in the sports ground of South Park in the Claddagh. The sports ground was formerly a rubbish dumping site for both municipal and industrial wastes. In the present study, a portable X-ray fluorescence (PXRF) analyser was used to obtain rapid in-situ elemental analyses of the topsoil (depth: about 5–10 cm) at 200 locations on a 20 × 20-m grid in South Park. Extremely high values of the pollutants were found, with maximum values of Pb, Zn, Cu and As of 10,297, 24,716, 2224 and 744 mg/kg soil, respectively. High values occur particularly where the topsoil cover is thin, whereas lower values were found in areas where imported topsoil covers the polluted substrate. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were applied to the dataset to create elemental spatial distribution maps, three-dimensional images and interpretive hazard maps of the pollutants in the study area. Immediate action to remediate the contaminated topsoil is recommended to safeguard the health of children who play at the sports ground.     

中国的冰雪灾害及其发展趋势

中国每年都有不同程度的冰雪灾害发生，冰雪灾害成为中国西部和北部经济发展的一个制约因素。最近１００～１５０年内，气候变暖将显著地减少冰冻圈的区域范围与数量，这种减少对有关的生态系统和社会经济活动将产生明显的影响。山地冰川的冰雪丧失和退缩将是惊人的。小冰川分布地区，如祁连山、阿尔泰山等，随着预料的变暖在未来１００年内将大部分消失；但喀喇昆仑山、帕米尔、天山以及喜马拉雅山等的那些大冰川将持续存在到２２世纪。冰川阻寒湖溃决洪水规模将日益变小。随着气候变化，冰雪融水径流将发生明显变化。随着气候变暖，季节性积雪的范围、积雪期和厚度将减少，从整体说，季节性积雪灾害（如雪崩、风吹雪）将变轻。海冰的范围和厚度将发生巨大变化，不仅是由于气候变暖，而且由于大气和大洋两者的环流形式发生变化，我们预期：黄海和渤海的海冰和北方地区河冰将显著减少，因此，河冰、海冰灾害亦将变轻。