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71.
72.
V. A. Romanenkov J. U. Smith P. Smith O. D. Sirotenko D. I. Rukhovitch I. A. Romanenko 《Regional Environmental Change》2007,7(2):93-104
The Model of Humus Balance was used to estimate the influence of climate effects and changing agricultural practices on carbon
(C) levels in soddy–podzolic soils in the Russian Federation for the years 2000–2050. The model was linked with a spatial
database containing soil, climate and farming management layers for identification of spatial change of C sequestration potential.
Analysis of relationships between C, soil texture and climate indicated that compared with a business-as-usual scenario, adaptation
measures could increase the number of polygons storing soil organic carbon (SOC) by 2010–2020. The rate of possible C loss
is sensitive to the different climate scenarios, with a maximum potential for SOC accumulation expected in 2030–2040, thereafter
decreasing to 2050. The effect is most pronounced for the arid part of the study area under the emission scenario with the
highest rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, supporting findings from the dynamic SOC model, RothC. C sequestration during the study period was permanent
for clay and clay loam soils with a C content of more than 2%, suggesting that C sequestration should be focused on highly
fertile, fine-textured soils. We also show that spatial heterogeneity of soil texture can be a source of uncertainty for estimates
of SOC dynamics at the regional scale.
Figures in color are available at 相似文献
73.
Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) has become a dominant tool in evaluating the accuracy of models predicting distributions of species. ROC has the advantage of being threshold-independent, and as such does not require decisions regarding thresholds of what constitutes a prediction of presence versus a prediction of absence. However, we show that, comparing two ROCs, using the AUC systematically undervalues models that do not provide predictions across the entire spectrum of proportional areas in the study area. Current ROC approaches in ecological niche modeling applications are also inappropriate because the two error components are weighted equally. We recommend a modification of ROC that remedies these problems, using partial-area ROC approaches to provide a firmer foundation for evaluation of predictions from ecological niche models. A worked example demonstrates that models that are evaluated favorably by traditional ROC AUCs are not necessarily the best when niche modeling considerations are incorporated into the design of the test. 相似文献
74.
本文以我国1997—2010年的消费结构数据为基础,运用灰色-马尔科夫链模型对数据进行了分析和预测,然后通过MATLAB预测了我国未来十年的能源消费结构,结合我国政府承诺的非化石能源目标对模型预测结果做了进一步的修正,最后根据能源发展趋势给出了能源消费结构的优化策略。 相似文献
75.
Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
This paper develops a methodology for integrating a land-use forecasting model with an event scale, rainfall-runoff model in support of improving land-use policy formulation at the watershed scale. The models selected for integration are loosely coupled, structured upon a common GIS platform that facilitates data exchange. The hydrologic model HEC-HMS is calibrated for a specific storm event that occurred within central Washington State. The land-use forecasting model, What If? is implemented to forecast future spatial distributions of low-density residential land-uses under low and high population growth estimates. Forecasted land-use distribution patterns for the years 2015, 2025, and 2050 are then used as land-use data input for the calibrated hydrologic model, keeping all other parameters constant. Impacts to the stream discharge hydrograph are predicted as the study area becomes increasingly developed as forecasted by What If?. The initial results of this integration process demonstrate the synergy that can be generated through the linkage of the selected models. The ability to quantifiably forecast the potential hydrologic implications of proposed land-use policies before their implementation offers land-use decision-makers a valuable tool for discerning which proposed land-use alternatives will be effective at minimizing storm water runoff. 相似文献
76.
Many problems and challenges of ecosystem management currently are driven by the rapid pace and spatial extent of landscape
change. Parks and reserves within areas of high human population density are especially challenged to meet the recreational
needs of local populations and to preserve valued environmental resources. The complex problem of managing multiple objectives
and multiple resources requires an enormous quantity of information, and conceptual models have been proposed as tools for
organizing and interpreting this information. Academics generally prefer a bottom-up approach to model construction that emphasizes
ecologic theory and process, whereas managers often use a top-down approach that takes advantage of existing information to
address more pragmatic objectives. The authors propose a formal process for developing, applying, and testing conceptual models
to be used in landscape monitoring that reconciles these seemingly opposing perspectives. The four-step process embraces the
role of hypothesis testing in the development of models and evaluation of their utility. An example application of the process
to a network of national parks in and around Washington, DC illustrates the ability of the approach to systematically identify
monitoring data that would both advance ecologic theory and inform management decisions. 相似文献
77.
贸易、外商直接投资、经济增长与环境污染 总被引:52,自引:0,他引:52
选取1990—2002年中国30个省市贸易、外商直接投资(FDI)、经济和环境相关数据,从定性和定量描述的角度探讨贸易、FDI对我国环境库兹涅茨曲线(ECK)的影响。研究表明:贸易对中国的ECK没有直接影响。但考虑到贸易对经济增长的贡献,以及它在引进先进污染防治技术和环境管理思想方法方面的积极作用,积极发展对外贸易将有助于改善我国经济增长带来的环境污染问题。另一方面。FDI与污染物排放之间呈现出显著的正相关关系。在中国接受经济全球化影响的过程中,由于部分地区急于吸引外资,加之环境管理体系的不完善,外商直接投资在某些方面对我国环境造成了一定的负面影响。 相似文献
78.
通过对某市化工区环境污染物概况的调查,建立了污染风险模型,并且根据模型获得的结果确定了区域内的主要污染物。在此基础上提出了化工区环境突发事件的应对措施,为今后的应急监测提供的理论保证。 相似文献
79.
80.
为研究出口单位流量与人流时间之间的关系,以某体育馆为例,进行对某一出口常态下的人流观测实验.通过理论计算和建立Cubic回归模型对采集数据进行了统计分析.发现:单位出口流量最大值为2人/(m·s),稳定值为0.8-1.2人/(m·s),最小值为0.2人/(m·s).出口单位流量是人流时间的三次函数.研究结果表明:出口单位流量是随着时间的变化而变化,不是一个定值,而且单位出口流量稳定值分布在初期.本文对性能化防火设计有一定的参考价值. 相似文献