岩石场地重力式挡土墙地震土压力振动台实验研究

结合汶川震区调查资料,利用大型振动台模型试验,分析了碎石土填料的岩石场地重力式挡土墙的地震土压力及其分布规律,并以此对我国现行铁路、公路抗震规范做合理性讨论和细化.研究发现,地震作用下,挡土墙的动土压力沿墙高呈单峰曲线状分布,且60%～80%集中作用于挡墙中部;随着地震峰值加速度的增加,地震土压力分布逐渐偏离现行振震设...     

Can fear of going to jail reduce the number of road fatalities? The Spanish experience

The goal of this article is to evaluate the impact of the drastic Spanish Penal Code reform on the number of road deaths in Spain and the time that the effects might last. This is achieved by means of multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum likelihood. In short, with this reform Spain might be considered to be closing the final gap that kept it apart from other developed countries as far as the road accident rate is concerned. We have found two different types of effects on Spanish road traffic fatalities. Initially, a month before the reform was passed there was a 24.7 percent fall in Spanish road deaths. After the Bill had been passed and for the following thirteen months, the reduction stayed at a constant sixteen percent. This reform has reduced Spanish road fatalities by 534 in all between November 2007 and December 2008 and the effects will foreseeably continue during 2009.     

太湖沉积物重金属污染生态风险的综合评价

为研究太湖沉积物重金属污染的生态风险。在2012年2月采集太湖7个采样点的表层沉积物,分析测定重金属总量以及可交换态和碳酸盐结合态的金属含量,采用风险评价准则、潜在生态风险指数法对沉积物重金属污染进行生态风险评价。结果表明:太湖沉积物中重金属除竺山湾处于偏中度污染水平,其他各点均处于轻度污染状态。全湖Ni、Zn和Cu的可利用态比例较高。太湖沉积物重金属污染为低生态风险,竺山湾生态风险高于其他地区。Ni和Pb的生态风险高于其他金属。需对太湖竺山湾污染物排放进行控制,对全湖沉积物中Ni污染进行优先控制与去除。     

基于ISM模型的多式联运网络风险因素结构分析

首次通过解析结构模型对多式联运网络的风险因素结构问题进行了深入研究,旨在揭示多式联运网络风险因素之间的复杂层级关系.以多式联运网络为研究对象,首先分析了多式联运网络风险内涵,接着从外部和内部因素两方面对多式联运网络风险因素的构成进行辨识,进而构建了多式联运网络风险因素的多级递阶解析结构模型,最终探究了多式联运网络风险因素的结构及层级关系.结果表明,多式联运网络风险影响因素分为5个层次,其中顶层因素指多式联运网络的运行安全,最直接因素包括外部环境和网络节点,关键性因素包括载运工具、联运线路及技术手段,基础性因素包括经济发展状况、政策法律法规及人员能力素质,而深层次因素是组织管理因素.     

An analysis of the drivers affecting the implementation of green supply chain management

Green supply chain management has emerged as an important organizational philosophy to reduce environmental risks. We develop a model of the drivers affecting the implementation of green supply chain management using an Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) framework. The various drivers of green supply chain management (GSCM) are identified based on the GSM literature and on consultations with experts in the industry. The model developed is validated on a case study involving a manufacturing firm in southern India.     

基于ISM方法的煤矿安全政策控灾作用分析

为研究煤矿安全政策的事故防控作用(控灾作用),在安全政策条款和前人研究成果基础上凝炼出42个煤矿安全政策控灾因子,运用解释结构建模方法,通过两两对比建立42个因子间的相关关系矩阵、建立可达矩阵并划分因子层级,最终建立煤矿安全政策的控灾作用模型。结果表明:安全政策42个控灾因子对事故防控的作用从强到弱分为5个层级;安全政策的科学性、安全监察体系、国家宏观利益是安全政策控灾的重要因子,其次是地方政府、矿主利益、地方安监体系和安全管理机制,而煤矿生产系统、煤层赋存特征及安全科技等因子由于受安全政策间接作用其控灾作用相对较弱。     

基于改进ISM-FRAM铁路运输事故致因分析*

为提高功能共振(FRAM)在铁路运输系统事故致因分析方面清晰度和完整性,提出新增环境模块的改进FRAM模型,刻画环境功能模块与其它功能模块交互耦合作用;通过引入解释结构模型(ISM),划分事故致因分析网络结构层次,分别计算分析网络层级重要度和功能模块结构重要度,并采用改进区间值犹豫模糊熵定量计算功能可变性和耦合损失度。结果表明:新增环境功能模块能有效分析与其它功能模块交互耦合作用,保证FRAM分析完整性;ISM-FRAM模型建立清晰事故层次结构,有助于理清事故致因;功能可变性和耦合损失度弥补FRAM风险评估定量分析不足,为功能屏障设置提供依据。     

Life cycle assessment

The basic idea of LCA is that all environmental burdens connected with a product or service have to be assessed, back to the raw materials and down to waste removal. Therefore, the term “Life Cycle Assessment” is more precise than the German “?kobilanz” or the French “écobilan”. This basic idea is undoubtedly true, and LCA is the only environmental assessment tool which avoids positive ratings for measurements which only consists in the shifting of burdens. In the years from 1990 to 1993, SETAC and SETAC-Europe shaped the development of LCA in a series of important workshops culminating in the “Code of Practice” of 1993. The results of these workshops can be illustrated by the famous SETAC-triangle. It shows the basic structure which is now underlying the standardizing activities of ISO: 1. Goal definition and scoping, 2. Inventory analysis, 3. Impact assessment, 4. Improvement assessment. The structure recently defined by ISO differs from the SETAC structure only in the last element which is called “Interpretation” in the international standard 14040. According to ISO, “Improvement Assessment” is only one of the many activities which may follow LCA but is not part of the true analysis. The components of an LCA are described and interpreted in detail, SETAC vs. ISO. Recent developments and activities initiated by ISO, SPOLD and other organisations complete the review.     

黄河三角洲的环境资源系统结构

在分析黄河三角洲自然环境和自然资源特点的基础上,本文采用解释结构模型（ＩＳＭ）理清各要素之间的关系,并对环境资源系统整体结构进行了探讨。     

基于DEMATEL/ISM的“三高”油气井井喷事故致因模型研究

针对"三高"油气井井喷事故危害的严重性,基于集成的DEMATEL/ISM算法建立"三高"油气井井喷事故致因模型。通过提取事故一般性致因因素,利用专家知识确定因素间的关联矩阵,基于集成的DEMATEL/ISM算法,采用定性与定量相结合的方法对致因因素进行结构化处理,并运用到实际案例中,确立了影响川东地区高含硫油气田井喷事故的关键致因因素,形成具有层级关系的事故致因网络。结果表明,钻井现场施工过程中需要加强对节流压井管汇失效、井筒完整性失效等直接致因以及信息传递不畅、人员技能不足等过渡致因的控制,同时加强井队的安全文化教育,提高工人的安全意识,改善地质勘探技术,提高对井下地质环境的认识,是预防井喷事故的长久之计。