Linking Climate Trends to Population Dynamics in the Baltic Ringed Seal: Impacts of Historical and Future Winter Temperatures

A global trend of a warming climate may seriously affect species dependent on sea ice. We investigated the impact of climate on the Baltic ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica), using historical and future climatological time series. Availability of suitable breeding ice is known to affect pup survival. We used detailed information on how winter temperatures affect the extent of breeding ice and a climatological model (RCA3) to project the expected effects on the Baltic ringed seal population. The population comprises of three sub-populations, and our simulations suggest that all of them will experience severely hampered growth rates during the coming 90 years. The projected 30 730 seals at the end of the twenty-first century constitutes only 16 % of the historical population size, and thus reduced ice cover alone will severely limit their growth rate. This adds burden to a species already haunted by other anthropogenic impacts.     

西南地区近14a植被覆盖变化及其与气候因子的关系

基于1999~2012年NDVI数据,结合气温和降水资料,运用GIS和RS技术,分析了西南地区近14a植被覆盖的时空变化特征及与气温、降水的关系。结果表明:(1)该区植被生长良好,各植被类型NDVI均呈显著增加趋势。空间整体表现为改善状态,改善面积远大于退化面积,严重退化区仅占1.18%。退化区分布于横断山地北部、四川盆地东部以及云贵高原中部。(2)植被覆盖变化将以良性发展为主,但强持续性的退化区和弱持续性的改善区应值得关注;强持续性的退化区主要分布在横断山地中北部、云贵高原中西部、若尔盖高原中部、四川盆地与若尔盖高原相交区域;草原强持续性的退化面积最大,针阔混交林强持续性的改善面积最大。(3)NDVI与温度存在明显的正相关关系,而与降水及干旱指数变化的关系不太明显,温度是影响该区植被变化的主要自然因素。     

Dynamics in the global protected-area estate since 2004

Nations of the world have committed to a number of goals and targets to address global environmental challenges. Protected areas have for centuries been a key strategy in conservation and play a major role in addressing current challenges. The most important tool used to track progress on protected-area commitments is the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA). Periodic assessments of the world's protected-area estate show steady growth over the last 2 decades. However, the current method, which uses the latest version of the WDPA, does not show the true dynamic nature of protected areas over time and does not provide information on sites removed from the WDPA. In reality, this method can only show growth or remain stable. We used GIS tools in an approach to assess protected-area change over time based on 12 temporally distinct versions of the WDPA that quantify area added and removed from the WDPA annually from 2004 to 2016. Both the narrative of continual growth of protected area and the counter-narrative of protected area removal were overly simplistic. The former because growth was almost entirely in the marine realm and the latter because some areas removed were reprotected in later years. On average 2.5 million km² was added to the WDPA annually and 1.1 million km² was removed. Reasons for the inclusion and removal of protected areas in the WDPA database were in part due to data-quality issues but also to on-the-ground changes. To meet the 17% protected-area component of Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 by 2020, which stood at 14.7% in 2016, either the rate of protected-area removal must decrease or the rate of protected-area designation and addition to the WDPA must increase.     

The Value of Biodiversity in Reserve Selection: Representation, Species Weighting, and Benefit Functions

Abstract:  The limited availability of resources for conservation has led to the development of many quantitative methods for selecting reserves that aim to maximize the biodiversity value of reserve networks. In published analyses, species are often considered equal, although some are in much greater need of protection than others. Furthermore, representation is usually treated as a threshold: a species is either represented or not, but varying levels of representation over or under a given target level are not valued differently. We propose that a higher representation level should also have higher value. We introduce a framework for reserve selection that includes species weights and benefit functions for under- and overrepresentation (number of locations for each species). We applied the method to conservation planning for herb-rich forests in southern Finland. Our use of benefit functions and weighting changed the identity of about 50% of the selected sites at different funding levels and improved the representation of rare and threatened species. We also identified a small area of additional land that would substantially enhance the existing reserve network. We suggest that benefit functions and species weighting should be considered as standard options in reserve-selection applications.     

Multimodal signals,imperfect information,and identification of sex in red-backed salamanders (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Plethodon cinereus</Emphasis>)

Theoretical treatments and empirical studies both suggest that signals that occur in multiple sensory modes have superior detectabilities, discriminabilities, and memorabilities. There is also an intuitive link between signal detectability, discriminability, and memorability and the quality of information that is transferred via the signaler. We investigated the role of information quality and sensory modality in the sexual identification of intruding conspecifics by territorial male red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus). Our results imply that these salamanders are able to discriminate between intruding male and female conspecifics (based on the allocation of aggression) in bimodal scenarios (vision and olfaction) even under situations in which the information available about the intruders sexual identities is reduced in quality. In unimodal scenarios (olfaction only), male residents exhibited heightened levels of aggression toward male secretions and reduced levels of aggression toward female secretions. In unimodal scenarios where information pertaining to the sex of the stimulus was reduced in quality, male residents displayed intermediate levels of aggression relative to the responses that male and female stimuli received respectively. Although resident males touched bimodal stimuli significantly more than they touched unimodal stimuli, we were unable to find support for the notion that sensory modality greatly influences how male resident red-backed salamanders allocate aggression toward intruding male versus female stimuli.Communicated by H. Kokko     

内蒙古锡林郭勒盟景观尺度土壤保持功能的空间分布

景观作为理解和塑造人类社会与环境最具操作性的尺度,其土壤保持功能是实现景观可持续性的重要条件。在遥感和GIS技术的支持下,采用改进的通用土壤流失方程(RUSLE)对内蒙古锡林郭勒盟景观土壤保持功能的空间分布进行研究。研究表明,研究区土壤保持总量为1.699×10~9 t?a~(-1),单位面积土壤保持量为85.39 t?hm~(-2)?a~(-1);土壤中N、P、K元素保持量分别为9.25×10~6 t?a~(-1)、6.14×10~6 t?a~(-1)、3.41×10~7 t?a~(-1)。按一级景观估算,土壤保持能力从强到弱依次为林地耕地草地住宅用地未利用地水域;按二级景观估算,土壤保持能力以灌木林地为最高,其次分别为有林地、疏林地、丘陵旱地、平原旱地、高盖度草原、山地旱地、中盖度草原,最差的是盐碱地和裸岩石质地。不同景观的土壤保持功能随植被覆盖度的增加呈非线性增长趋势,当植被覆盖度小于50%时,单位面积土壤保持量随植被覆盖度增大而缓慢增加;当植被覆盖度大于50%时,土壤保持功能随植被覆盖度增大而显著增加。因地制宜地提高研究区的植被覆盖度,合理配置景观空间分布格局,有助于景观服务功能的发展,从而对区域生态安全和人类福祉做出更大贡献。     

Effects of climate and land-cover change on the conservation status of gibbons

Species shift their distribution in response to climate and land-cover change, which may result in a spatial mismatch between currently protected areas (PAs) and priority conservation areas (PCAs). We examined the effects of climate and land-cover change on potential range of gibbons and sought to identify PCAs that would conserve them effectively. We collected global gibbon occurrence points and modeled (ecological niche model) their current and potential 2050s ranges under climate-change and different land-cover-change scenarios. We examined change in range and PA coverage between the current and future ranges of each gibbon species. We applied spatial conservation prioritization to identify the top 30% PCAs for each species. We then determined how much of the PCAs are conserved in each country within the global range of gibbons. On average, 31% (SD 22) of each species’ current range was covered in PAs. PA coverage of the current range of 9 species was <30%. Nine species lost on average 46% (SD 29) of their potential range due to climate change. Under climate-change with an optimistic land-cover-change scenario (B1), 12 species lost 39% (SD 28) of their range. In a pessimistic land-cover-change scenario (A2), 15 species lost 36% (SD 28) of their range. Five species lost significantly more range under the A2 scenario than the B1 scenario (p = 0.01, SD 0.01), suggesting that gibbons will benefit from effective management of land cover. PA coverage of future range was <30% for 11 species. On average, 32% (SD 25) of PCAs were covered by PAs. Indonesia contained more species and PCAs and thus has the greatest responsibility for gibbon conservation. Indonesia, India, and Myanmar need to expand their PAs to fulfill their responsibility to gibbon conservation. Our results provide a baseline for global gibbon conservation, particularly for countries lacking gibbon research capacity.     

北京市区域城市化程度与颗粒物污染的相关性分析

城市化程度的提升带来严重的资源环境问题,尤其是空气污染问题,严重影响了人类的健康。大气中的PM2.5等颗粒物已经成为影响我国城市空气质量的主要污染物。现有研究多数是对于多年来多地区的宏观研究,缺乏对于典型地区的具体数据报道。通过分析北京市PM2.5和PM10的质量浓度与不同城市化程度地区的相关关系,探索城市化程度对PM2.5等颗粒物浓度的影响。选取北京市7处具有代表性空气质量监测点,于2013年7月至10月对PM2.5和PM10的质量浓度进行连续4个月的实时监测,结合《北京市区域统计年鉴》中的城市化指标数据,包括常住人口密度、地区生产总值和林木覆盖率,对数据进行变化趋势分析、Pearson相关分析和回归分析。研究结论表明：由于北京市不同区域城市化程度不同导致颗粒物污染状况不同,每个区域的PM2.5与PM10的质量浓度虽有差异但均显著相关,PM2.5的质量浓度约占PM10的质量浓度的60%,PM2.5是PM10的主要组成成分。城市化程度与PM2.5等颗粒物浓度有明显的关系,PM2.5等颗粒物浓度与地区生产总值和林木覆盖率显著相关,与地区生产总值呈正相关,与林木覆盖率呈负相关;与常住人口密度呈正相关趋势但并不显著相关。其中,PM2.5的质量浓度与地区生产总值的相关系数为0.875,与林木覆盖率的相关系数为-0.838;PM10的质量浓度与地区生产总值相关系数为0.947,与林木覆盖率相关系数为-0.775。总体来看,PM2.5等颗粒物浓度随城市化程度的提高而增加,北京市区域城市化程度与颗粒物污染情况关系明显。我国在快速发展城市化的同时,应关注环境与经济相协调。调整产业结构,增加植被绿化,控制污染源将有助于减少北京市大气中颗粒物的污染程度,为我国的城市化进程提供相应的支持和保障。