中国生物多样性变化趋势分析

在生物多样性受到严重威胁前提下,为评估中国生物多样性保护的成效,引入了世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)开发设计的红色名录指数(Red List Index,RLI),结合我国实际情况修订后,计算脊椎动物和维管植物的红色名录指数。结果显示,以均值法(Equal-steps method)计算的脊椎动物RLI有所上升,脊椎动物整体多样性丧失速率下降;而以灭绝风险法(Extinction risk method)计算的脊椎动物RLI有所下降,表明有部分高濒危等级的脊椎动物物种进一步丧失;两种方法计算的维管植物RLI均有所下降,说明维管植物多样性丧失速率加快;而基于均值法计算的维管植物RLI下降速率更快,说明数量较多的物种丧失速率加快,亟需加强保护。这是RLI在国家水平上进行应用,也是在国家水平上对RLI指数进行验证,计算结果将为我国生物多样性保护提供参考。     

Identification of hot spot and safe zones of ambient air quality in North Maharashtra region,India

The continuous infrastructural and economic development exerted pressure on the environmental conditions of the North Maharashtra region. The air quality of North Maharashtra region was analysed for the identification of hot spots and safe zones of ambient air quality. The result shows air pollution at some part of North Maharashtra region. The levels of particulate matter were above the prescribed limits especially at Bhusawal, Dhule and Jalgaon Urban centres. The traces of polyaromatic hydrocarbons were also observed in the urban centres of study area. The binary ratios of the persistent prevailing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)'s show great correlation with the vehicular exhaust in the study region. The higher levels of pollutants in the study region were recorded in the post-monsoon season. The present study is first of its kind in the North Maharashtra region and an attempt has been made to analyse the anthropogenic sources and concentration of air pollutants in the area. The air pollutants reduce the defence system of human body and lead into severe health consequences like damage of lung tissues with escalation in the existing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.     

基于失碳速率的煤氧化动力学模型研究

碳元素脱离煤体转移到气态产物中是煤低温氧化过程的一个重要特征.通过对煤自燃气体产物生成特征的研究,提出失碳速率的概念,建立了相应的氧化动力学模型,并从理论及实验两方面予以验证.该模型可较准确地描述煤在程序升温条件下从常温氧化至110℃的过程中失碳速率的变化特征.研究表明,自燃倾向性不同的煤其失碳速率有较大的差异,同一种煤在不同温度段内失碳速率也不同,其活化能和总指前因子均有较大改变;不同温度阶段煤氧化的内在作用机制存在较大差别,仅以某一温度段的特性来衡量煤氧化能力的强弱并不全面.     

农村环境质量监测与评价指标体系研究

总结了农村环境质量监测与评价研究现状,提出了农村环境质量监测布点原则与方案,在此基础上构建了更具针对性、灵活性的农村环境质量监测与评价指标体系。     

新的污染物环境危害评价指标——超标强度

污染物的危害程度不仅与超标率和超标倍数有关,而且与污染物超标持续时间有关。同样高的污染物浓度,如果其持续时间长短不同,其对环境的生态效应是不同的。为此,在充分分析超标率、超标倍数所存在缺陷的基础上,通过实例分析对比,以直观图解的方式提出了一套新的污染物环境危害评价指标体系——超标强度指标体系。超标强度指标体系中涉及的主要概念和指标有标准面积、超标面积、超标持续时间、超标强度和综合超标强度。在阐述了各指标的概念含义和计算方法后,以同一组监测数据为例,用超标率和超标倍数与超标强度指标进行了对比评价。结果表明,用超标强度及其指标体系可以科学、准确区分和评判超标率、超标倍数指标体系所不能区分和评判的真实存在的客观事实,而且非常精确地给出了污染物超标持续时间。超标强度指标所涵盖的内容比超标率和超标倍数更丰富,评价的结果更准确,所反映的生态环境质量状况更客观准确、科学真实。超标持续时间表明了污染物超标状态的持续时间。     

中国城乡贫困变动:2004—2012

本文基于2004—2012年中国综合社会调查数据,根据家庭人均年收入2 300元的国家贫困标准线和"1天1.5美元"的亚洲贫困标准线,使用FGT指数和脱贫时间两种贫困指数评估了我国城乡贫困整体变动趋势,并从城乡和地区、个体和家庭特征层面分解贫困人口构成;也考察了贫困变动的增长效应和收入分配效应;最后定量地分析收入增长的影响因素。结果表明,根据两种贫困标准线,两种贫困指数测度结果一致反映我国贫困人口规模显著减少;按国家贫困标准线,我国城乡贫困发生率下降了8.8%,但到2012年的依然高达8.6%,农村贫困人口平均脱贫时间为5.4年,而相对贫困发生率有所上升。不同地区的贫困变动差异较大,西部地区和中部地区贫困发生率依然高于全国平均水平3.41个百分点和0.22个百分点,贫困强度和贫困深度现象都还较为严重;东部地区的减贫效应十分明显,但贫困人口内部收入差距拉大问题较为突出。经济增长的脱贫效应较为显著,但增长的亲贫性有待提高;城乡、地区和贫困人口内部居民收入差距逐渐拉大,并成为反贫困的严重障碍。外出非农工作经历、性别差异和教育程度是影响收入增长的关键因素。基于此,本文建议反贫政策应瞄准西部地区的教育程度和健康水平较低、家庭规模较大的农村居民,尤其是女性户主家庭,也应加强养老保险、社会帮扶和人力资本投资,形成改善收入分配为重点的社会保障性扶贫政策体系;中部地区可以借助邻近东部地区的地理优势,通过承接产业转移持续实施"开发式扶贫"政策体系;同时,也可将扶贫标准线提高为每人"1天1.5美元"的亚洲贫困线。     

A Graph Theory approach to measure the performance of sustainability enablers in a manufacturing organization

In a manufacturing organization, the term sustainability deals with the impact of production process and products on the environment and society, laying emphasis on preservation of scarce resources. In this article, the study concentrates on developing a Graph Theory model to measure the performance and inter-relationship between the sustainability enablers in an organization, thereby to quantitatively measure the extent to which ‘sustainable manufacturing’ practices are being followed in the organization. The objective of this study was to identify a set of sustainability enablers and attributes that impact a manufacturing organization. Digraphs were developed for the whole system and sub-systems depicting the inter-relationships and dependencies between various enablers and attributes to interpret the performance of the sustainability enablers in the case organization. Using the best case and worst case values, the level of sustainable manufacturing practices of the organization was found by Comprehensive Assessment Index. Based on the best case values, the relative significance of individual sustainability enablers are found and compared with worst case situations. The impacts of individual enablers on the overall sustainability level of the organization were also studied.     

Linking empirical estimates of body burden of environmental chemicals and wellness using NHANES data

Biomonitoring of industrial chemicals in human tissues and fluids has shown that all people carry a “body burden” of synthetic chemicals. Although measurement of an environmental chemical in a person's tissues/fluids is an indication of exposure, it does not necessarily mean the exposure concentration is sufficient to cause an adverse effect. Since humans are exposed to multiple chemicals, there may be a combination effect (e.g., additive, synergistic) associated with low-level exposures to multiple classes of contaminants, which may impact a variety of organ systems. The objective of this research is to link measures of body burden of environmental chemicals and a “holistic” measure of wellness. The approach is demonstrated using biomonitoring data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). Forty-two chemicals were selected for analysis based on their detection levels. Six biological pathway-specific indices were evaluated using groups of chemicals associated with each pathway. Five of the six pathways were negatively associated with wellness. Three non-zero interaction terms were detected which may provide empirical evidence of crosstalk across pathways. The approach identified five of the 42 chemicals from a variety of classes (metals, pesticides, furans, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) as accounting for 71% of the weight linking body burden to wellness. Significant interactions were detected indicating the effect of smoking is exacerbated by body burden of environmental chemicals. Use of a holistic index on both sides of the exposure-health equation is a novel and promising empirical “systems biology” approach to risk evaluation of complex environmental exposures.     

武汉市耕地景观游憩功能与可达性的空间匹配格局

揭示耕地景观游憩功能的供给能力与其可达性的空间匹配格局,可以为耕地景观游憩功能的合理布局、开发与利用提供依据。以武汉市为例,采用指标评价法和专家打分法,结合GIS空间分析,建立了耕地景观游憩功能的空间格局研究框架,对耕地景观游憩功能的供应潜力、可达性、及两者空间匹配等方面开展了研究。结果表明:(1)武汉市耕地景观游憩功能供应潜力的空间分布呈现从中心城区边缘向外逐渐降低的格局;(2)武汉市耕地景观游憩功能可达性呈现"中西部高,边缘低"的分布格局;(3)根据耕地景观游憩功能的供应潜力与可达性的空间匹配关系,将武汉市耕地景观游憩服务分为四类:高供应-高可达,高供应-低可达,低供应-高可达,低供应-低可达;这四类面积分别占研究区域的26.17%、25.24%、17.33%、31.26%。对耕地景观游憩功能的合理开发与利用、促进耕地利用的多功能化具有重要的现实意义。     

最终需求拉动下的CO2排放驱动因素研究:1997-2007

我国要实现在哥本哈根会议上承诺的减排目标,有赖于正确判断相关因素对我国CO2排放的影响强度和作用机理.减排目标的实现受诸多因素的影响,从生产层面到消费层面,从结构因素到效率因素都有涉及.本文从最终需求的视角,同时考虑生产和消费的影响因素,运用投入产出模型和对数平均Divisia指数分解法,考察了1997-2002、2002 - 2007年两个时段相关影响因素的变化对总排放变化的总贡献和部门贡献.研究结果表明,最终需求总量的不断增长是拉动总排放增加的主要驱动因素,重化工部门能耗强度的降低是促进减排的主要驱动因素;化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、非金属矿物制品业部门中间投入技术的变动是影响总技术效应的主要部门因素;能耗结构、产业结构和消费构成的变化所技动的减排效应量波动状态.文章提出减排不仅要从生产层面更要从消费层面下功夫,不仅要提高技术效率还要注重调整结构.