中国碳排放变动的因素分解分析

随着中国经济的快速发展,能源消费的急剧增长以及以煤为主的能源结构在短期内难以改变,中国一次能源消费的碳排放总量不断增长.本文基于广义费雪指数(GFI)方法,建立中国人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析 2000-2008年间,能源结构、能源效率和经济发展等因素的变化对中国人均碳排放的影响.该方法较之拉氏指数和D氏指数分解法,克服了它们的缺点,更好的消除了分解的残差项,得到的结果更加精确.分析表明:经济发展对拉动中国人均碳排放的贡献率呈指数增长,而能源效率对抑制中国人均碳排放的贡献率呈倒“U”型,并且其抑制作用当前有增强趋势,能源结构的抑制作用依然微弱.能源效率和能源结构对碳排放的抑制作用难以抵消由经济发展拉动的中国人均碳排放量增长.本文得到当前能源效率因素对碳排放的抑制作用正逐渐增强,而能源结构因素对碳排放的抑制作用依然微弱,这与以往的结果不同.为了考察各种因素对中国能源消费碳排放影响的长期规律性,本文首次拟合了各种影响因素的瞬时变化率特征,进一步反映出各影响因素的动态演进过程.     

层次分析法在城市环境规划指标体系研究中的应用

以秦皇岛市环境规划指标体系研究为例,运用层次分析法,结合专家咨询,计算出了目前常用的5大类、62个单项指标的权值。并在此基础上进行了指标的筛选,确定了指标体系方案。      

城市大气环境质量评价模糊识别理论模型

本文提出一种新的大气环境质量评价理论模型——模糊识别模型。提出了大气质量评价的指标综合权重矩阵概念及其确定方法。      

海岸带可持续发展评价研究——以中国沿海七城市为例

根据"压力-状态-响应"模型建立了海岸带可持续发展指标体系,并运用层次分析法综合评价了上海等七个沿海城市的可持续发展水平。     

宝鸡市街尘中As和Hg含量及其环境风险评价

利用原子荧光分光光度计对宝鸡市38个街尘样品进行分析测试,以研究街尘中As和Hg含量的水平及其空间分布特征,并与中国土壤及其他城市街尘中的含量进行对比.结果表明:宝鸡市街尘中w(As)为8.985～42.822 　μg/g,平均值为19.764 　μg/g,约为中国土壤元素背景值(11.2 　μg/g)的1.8倍,是其他城市街尘w(As)均值的2～4倍;w(Hg)为0.483～2.318 　μg/g,平均值为1.112 μg/g,约为中国土壤元素背景值(0.065 　μg/g)的17.1倍,为其他城市街尘w(Hg)均值的10倍.工业区街尘中w(As)相对较高,商业区街尘中w(Hg)相对较高.利用污染指数法和地积累指数法对宝鸡市街尘中As和Hg的环境风险进行评价,结果表明:宝鸡市街尘中As的污染指数平均值为1.765,地积累指数平均值为0.144,存在轻度的污染;Hg的污染指数平均值为17.106,地积累指数平均值为3.425,呈现出偏重污染.      

重庆市多年空气污染指数分析及大气污染控制对策

本文分析了重庆市主城区2001～2003年的API指数,得出API分布及变化规律,结果显示大气污染变化规律受季节及气象因素影响,在此基础上,提出了重庆市主城区大气污染控制对策。     

The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index: An Integrated Assessment Tool for Community Resilience and Vulnerability with Respect to Freshwater

People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone.     

ACCEPTING THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX: A CALCULATION ALGORITHM1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been calculated for about 30 years as a means of providing a single measure of meteorological drought severity. It was intended to retrospectively look at wet and dry conditions using water balance techniques. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a probability index that was developed to give a better representation of abnormal wetness and dryness than the Palmer indices. Before the user community will accept the SPI as an alternative to the Palmer indices, a standard method must be developed for computing the index. Standardization is necessary so that all users of the index will have a common basis for both spatial and temporal comparison of index values. If different probability distributions and models are used to describe an observed series of precipitation, then different SPI values may be obtained. This article describes the effect on the SPI values computed from different probability models as well as the effects on dry event characteristics. It is concluded that the Pearson Type III distribution is the “best” universal model, and that the reliability of the SPI is sample size dependent. It is also concluded that because of data limitations, SPIs with time scales longer than 24 months may be unreliable. An internet link is provided that will allow users to access Fortran 77 source code for calculating the SPI.     

综合评价室内空气质量初探

阐述了现行室内空气质量评价方法存在的不足,通过分析比较,确定了利用计权型多因子环境质量评价指数进行室内空气质量的综合评价方法.根据当前由于室内装修引起的室内空气污染特点,选择了甲醛、氨气、苯、甲苯、二甲苯和总挥发性有机物等6项指标作为评价因子,各评价因子的权重系数用其危害等级计算得到.     

土地利用类型与水分亏缺的风险程度关系——以北方农牧交错带黄土高原区为例

在北方农牧交错带植被重建中适宜乔、灌、草种生态区划的基础上,以该区域黄土高原区作为研究区,结合该区1989和1999两年的土地利用分类图,通过计算区域缺水指数及对其分级,探讨了缺水指数在时间和空间上的变化规律,分析了耕地、林地、草地等该区主要土地利用类型在时间和空间上与缺水指数的关系。在此基础上,构建水分亏缺风险指数(RiskIndexofWaterDeficit),从研究区整体和各生态分区两个尺度上探讨了不同土地利用类型的RIWD时空分异。得出如下结论:①1989～2000年,研究区缺水指数均在中度以上,其变化幅度有逐年减少的趋势;②对比1989年和1999年两年的缺水指数,区域整体缺水状况有所缓解,但各生态分区内的缓解程度在空间上仍存在差异;③从研究区整体而言,各土地利用类型的水分亏缺风险指数逐渐减少,依次为林地、耕地、草地;④因各生态分区内的地理特征包括水分状况存在变化,故各土地利用类型的水分亏缺风险程度排列顺序与区域整体有所不同。