Fostering sustainable small-scale investments: lessons from experience and ideas for intervention and innovation

This article presents lessons from experience pertinent to implementing small-scale natural resource and related investment projects in developing countries. It outlines ideas for intervention and innovation to foster such investments. Particular emphasis is placed on private-sector participation in these investments. Following a brief presentation of the economic development and other arguments that support intervention and innovation in support of such small-scale natural resource investments, the article discusses many of the lessons learned from experience. These lessons reinforce those touched upon in the investment-specific discussions in the previous articles. The experience and associated lessons that are examined include experiences in both developing and developed countries and encompass not just lessons from natural resource investments, but also small-scale investments in other sectors. Financing and other innovations which facilitate meeting the challenges are drawn from relevant experience where barriers to investment have been surmounted. Options for programme and project interventions to increase market penetration of small-scale investments and achieve the associated development linkages and synergies are suggested. These suggestions are aimed especially at governments and bilateral and multilateral development finance and development assistance entities. It is those players who might support such interventions in collaboration with local financial institutions and other market players.     

Major hazards—Thinking the unthinkable

It is a common experience that public administrations tend to shy away from the explicit acknowledgment of quantitative risk levels. Faced with extreme concentrations of population and of industrial activities, including LPG and liquid chlorine storage, within a very small land area, Hong Kong has faced up to the issue of major man-made hazards by “thinking the unthinkable” and adopting explicit risk guidelines. This article describes how these guidelines were developed and the arguments that led to their adoption. It is emphasized that the risk guidelines are not rigid standards but simply a method of focusing decision making and ensuring that any decision to contravene the guidelines is taken at an appropriately senior level in the administration. The way in which the guidelines have been incorporated intimately into the planning and decision-making process is described and details are given on how this has led to the implementation of a variety of measures that have greatly reduced both societal and individual risk from certain types of chemical storage and chemical processing installations in Hong Kong. The opinions in this paper represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the Hong Kong Government.     

ESTIMATING MARYLAND CRITICAL AREA ACVS IMPACT ON FUTURE NONPOINT POLLUTION ALONG THE RHODE RWER ESTUARY1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of an investigation of the effects of the Maryland Critical Area Act on generation of non-point source loads of phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment to the Rhode River estuary. The Simple Method model, the Marcus and Kearney regression model, and the CREAMS model were used to estimate annual loads under: (1) present conditions, (2) maximum land use development allowable under the Act, and (3) two sets of future land use conditions that might occur if the Act were not in place. Results indicate that the Critical Area Act can reduce the present generation of nonpoint nutrient and sediment loadings 20–30 percent from the regulated area. These reductions can occur while preserving agricultural lands and allowing limited residential and urban development. The decrease in nutrient loadings is primarily dependent upon implementation and enforcement of agricultural best management practices (BMPs). The BMPs could reduce present agricultural nutrient loadings by 90 percent to a level comparable to loadings from residential areas. The estimated effectiveness of the Critical Area Act is even greater when compared to potential future nutrient loadings if development in the area remains unregulated. Unrestricted residential and urban development could increase nutrient loadings by 200 percent to 1000 percent as compared to controlled development under Critical Area Act guidelines. The Critical Area Act primarily prevents these future increases by severely limiting woodland cutting, with lesser results obtained by requiring urban BMPs.     

中国山区沟谷泥石流危险度的定量判定法

本文根据专家系统调查,确定了一次泥石流冲出物最大方量和泥石流暴发频率作为判定泥石流危险度的主要危险因子。运用灰色关联度分析,优选出10项判定泥石流危险度的次要危险因子,并根据关联序确定了它们的权重。在各危险因子等级划分的基础上,得出了泥石流危险度的定量计算公式。通过实例检验,证明该判定方法具有60％以上的可靠度。     

红壤丘陵区土地利用变化对土壤质量影响

以鄂南红壤丘陵典型区的三个村为代表 ,应用地理信息系统对 1981和 1998年两个时期的土地利用变化和土壤质量进行对比研究 ,分析了土地利用变化对土壤质量的影响。结果表明 :研究区土地利用结构总体上具有农业型特点 ,17a间水田减少了 2 1% ;其余的利用方式则有不同幅度的增加 ,居民地、水域、林地、园地和旱地增加了 4 2 .2 %、99.6 %、8%、5 6 .8%和 8%。土壤质量有从优劣两端向中等靠拢的趋势 ,17a后 、 、 和 等地面积分别减少 18.6 %、12 .2 %、2 9.6 %和 2 5 % ; 等地增幅达 5 1.9%。土地利用方式及管理措施是影响土壤质量演变方向和强度的关键因子 ,园地和林地的土壤质量大多得到明显改善 ,水田的Δ SQI多数呈下降的趋势 ,旱地的土壤质量变化比较复杂 ,与土地利用结构相关。依此 ,本文探讨了定向培育土壤质量的途径     

Is “No-Threshold” a “Non-Concept”?

A controversy prominent in scientific literature that has carried over to newspapers, magazines, and popular books is having serious social and political expressions today: “Is there, or is there not, a threshold below which exposure to a carcinogen will not induce cancer?” The distinction between establishing the existence of this threshold (which is a theoretical question) and its value (which is an experimental one) gets lost in the scientific arguments. Establishing the existence of this threshold has now become a philosophical question (and an emotional one). In this paper I qualitatively outline theoretical reasons why a threshold must exist, discuss experiments which measure thresholds on two chemicals, and describe and apply a statistical method for estimating the threshold value from exposure-response data.     

Adversarial safety analysis: borrowing the methods of security vulnerability assessments

INTRODUCTION: Safety and security share numerous attributes. The author, who heads the (Security) Vulnerability Assessment Team at Los Alamos National Laboratory, therefore argues that techniques used to optimize security might be useful for optimizing safety. OPTIMIZING SECURITY: There are three main ways to attempt to improve security-security surveys, risk assessment (or "design basis threat"), and vulnerability assessments. The latter is usually the most effective. SAFETY ANALOGS: Vulnerability assessment techniques used to improve security can be applied to safety analysis--even though safety is not ordinarily viewed as having malicious adversaries (other than hazards involving deliberate sabotage). Thinking like a malicious adversary can nevertheless have benefits in identifying safety vulnerabilities. SUGGESTIONS: The attributes of an effective safety vulnerability assessment are discussed, and recommendations are offered for how such an adversarial assessment might work. CONCLUSION: A safety vulnerability assessment can potentially provide new insights, a fresh and vivid perspective on safety hazards, and increased safety awareness.     

基于证书权威(CA)中心的时间戳服务系统的实现

介绍了数字签名不具有抗抵赖的问题 ,以及数据抗抵赖在信息安全中的重要性。在对原有的时间戳协议缺乏可靠的身份认证和可信性分析后 ,提出了一种新的基于证书权威 (CA)中心的时间戳服务协议。利用CA中心的信任原理和数字证书的身份认证作用 ,使提供时间戳服务的服务方具备了可靠的身份鉴别和可信性。并利用XML标记对时间戳的数据内容进行描述 ,形成简单、直观的时间戳 ,且无需复杂的编解码过程。通过正确和可信的时间戳可以判定用户数据产生的时间 ,防止用户事后的抵赖行为 ,为网络应用提供更为安全的数据。     

Health risk assessment of PCDD/F emissions from a hazardous and medical waste incinerator in Turkey

A multimedia risk assessment procedure was conducted to determine the fate and transport of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDD/F) emissions from the Izmit Hazardous and Medical Waste Incinerator (IZAYDAS) in Turkey and their potential health risks. Congener concentrations in ambient air and their deposition rates were determined by an air dispersion model (ISCST3). Their transfer to some plant groups and animal tissues was predicted by food chain modeling. Exposure scenarios were produced based on three receptor groups (urban, semiurban, and rural) and five subgroups determined according to ages. Daily intakes of PCDD/Fs via exposure pathways were determined based on three different emission scenarios for each group and subgroup. Estimated incremental PCDD/F doses caused by the incinerator emissions in central-tendency scenario were computed as between 2.31 x 10(-6) and 0.008 pg TEQ kg(-1) bodyweight (bw) day(-1) on average for all the receptors other than infants in all the settings, while the range was 3.01 x 10(-5)-0.081 pg TEQ kg(-1) bw day(-1) for infants. Sensitivity analysis showed that the consumption of vegetal products and their locally grown fractions are the most significant parameters in the exposure to PCDD/Fs in the area.     

The ecological effects of trichloroacetic acid in the environment

Trichloroacetic acid (TCAA) is a member of the family of compounds known as chloroacetic acids, which includes mono-, di- and trichloroacetic acid. The significant property these compounds share is that they are all phytotoxic. TCAA once was widely used as a potent herbicide. However, long after TCAA's use as a herbicide was discontinued, its presence is still detected in the environment in various compartments. Methods for quantifying TCAA in aqueous and solid samples are summarized. Concentrations in various environmental compartments are presented, with a discussion of the possible formation of TCAA through natural processes. Concentrations of TCAA found to be toxic to aquatic and terrestrial organisms in laboratory and field studies were compiled and used to estimate risk quotients for soil and surface waters. TCAA levels in most water bodies not directly affected by point sources appear to be well below toxicity levels for the most sensitive aquatic organisms. Given the phytotoxicity of TCAA, aquatic plants and phytoplankton would be the aquatic species to monitor for potential effects. Given the concentrations of TCAA measured in various soils, there appears to be a risk to terrestrial organisms. Soil uptake of TCAA by plants has been shown to be rapid. Also, combined uptake of TCAA from soil and directly from the atmosphere has been shown. Therefore, risk quotients derived from soil exposure may underestimate the risk TCAA poses to plants. Moreover, TCE and TCA have been shown to be taken up by plants and converted to TCAA, thus leading to an additional exposure route. Mono- and di-chloroacetic acids can co-occur with TCAA in the atmosphere and soil and are more phytotoxic than TCAA. The cumulative effects of TCAA and compounds with similar toxic effects found in air and soil must be considered in subsequent terrestrial ecosystem risk assessments.