基于主逻辑图的安全风险建模研究

概率风险评估已成为研究复杂系统安全风险较为成熟的方法 ,其风险模型的建立是基于故障树/事件树的 ,风险分析具有众多的静态特性。然而 ,大的复杂系统往往存在诸多动态因素 ,在风险研究需要考虑这些动态因素的情况下 ,基于传统故障树 /事件树的模型则难以提供支持。笔者对此进行了分析 ,提出了基于主逻辑图的安全风险建模 ;主要介绍了主逻辑图的概念及其建模方法 ,并对模型进行了分析 ;在此基础上 ,基于主逻辑图分析事故场景 ,对场景风险的量化评估进行了简要介绍 ,并结合某核反应堆例子进行了分析。     

People's Perception About Participatory Developmental Programs: Lessons from the Mountain Risk Engineering Program in the Indian Central Himalaya

The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) is suffering from environmental degradation due to population pressure and infra-structural needs. This is coupled with a natural setting, which creates problems of accelerated soil erosion and mass wasting. In view of these environmental difficulties and the growing concern for effective restoration, there has become an urgent need for multi-disciplinary coordinated improvement schemes. The mitigation of risk arising from hazardous mass wasting processes, through a careful and systematic approach, has helped in the development of the concept of Mountain Risk Engineering (MRE). The MRE practices involve an integrated approach to solving the infra-structural engineering problems of hilly and mountainous areas through environmentally conscious cost-effective and site-specific designs. However, the role of people's participation is extremely crucial for the success of such programs. This paper analyzes the perception of the local people about the approaches adopted in MRE participatory developmental programs and throws light on the intricacies of peoples' participation.     

A THEORETICAL TRAVEL TIME BASED ON WATERSHED HYPSOMETRY1

ABSTRACT: The time to hydrograph peak of a watershed basin has been found to correlate with various statistical attributes (e.g., skewness and kurtosis) of its hypsometric curve (treated as probability distribution). This paper presents a theoretical travel time that is conceptually analogous to the time to hydrograph peak and can be calculated directly from the hypsometric curve of a watershed basin based on gravity and acceleration. The theoretical travel times for 23 selected watersheds in the United States are found to correlate significantly with their corresponding hypsometric attributes. In addition, the theoretical travel times are consistent with the times of concentration estimated from the Federal Aviation Administration method. Thus, this paper offers a simple theoretical explanation to the empirically identified linkage between time to hydrograph peak and hypsometric attributes. This theoretical travel time can provide an alternative way of characterizing the effects of basin morphometry on hydrologic response.     

入侵检测的1类支持向量机模型

计算机网络尤其是互联网的迅速发展与普及 ,使得信息安全已经成为一个全球瞩目的重要研究课题。随着攻击技术的不断进步与更新 ,迫切需要一种有效的入侵检测技术来保护信息系统的安全。由于几乎所有的攻击与滥用都被记录在系统的网络数据中 ,因而可以基于计算机系统的网络数据构造入侵检测系统。在对网络数据进行深刻的分析和研究的基础上 ,提出了入侵检测的 1类支持向量机模型。第一 ,构造适于异常点检测的1类支持向量机模型 ;第二利用抽象化的网络数据对该模型进行训练以确定其中各个参数的值。实验表明 ,该方法是行之有效的     

利用地理信息系统(GIS)开发多功能空管系统

在航空运输中 ,飞行安全最为重要 ,空管指挥是保证飞行安全的重要手段。地理信息系统 (GIS)能够将空间位置和性质属性结合在一起 ,非常适合空管指挥中直观性、安全性方面的需要。笔者在研究开发多功能空管系统的基础上 ,讨论了对地形、地物、航道、空管区、禁飞区等进行数字化的方法 ,提出了系统开发的主要技术 ,介绍了多功能空管系统的显示、控制、示警、辅助决策、智能纠错等功能 ,指出了空管系统的发展方向     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: An Approach for Characterizing Tropospheric Ozone Risk to Forests

/ The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States is dependent on the variation in ozone exposure across the distribution of the forests in question and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial nature, and consequently an approach to characterization of ozone risk is presented that places ozone exposure-response functions for species as seedlings and model-simulated tree and stand responses in a spatial context using a geographical information systems (GIS). The GIS is used to aggregate factors considered important in a risk characterization, including: (1) estimated ozone exposures over forested regions, (2) measures of ozone effects on species' and stand growth, and (3) spatially distributed environmental, genetic, and exposure influences on species' response to ozone. The GIS-based risk characterization provides an estimation of the extent and magnitude of the potential ozone impact on forests. A preliminary risk characterization demonstrating this approach considered only the eastern United States and only the limited empirical data quantifying the effect of ozone exposures on forest tree species as seedlings. The area-weighted response of the annual seedling biomass loss formed the basis for a sensitivity ranking: sensitive-aspen and black cherry (14%-33% biomass loss over 50% of their distribution); moderately sensitive-tulip popular, loblolly pine, eastern white pine, and sugar maple (5%-13% biomass loss); insensitive-Virginia pine and red maple (0%-1% loss). In the future, the GIS-based risk characterization will include process-based model simulations of the three- to 5-year growth response of individual species as large trees with relevant environmental interactions and model simulated response of mixed stands. The interactive nature of GIS provides a tool to explore consequences of the range of climate conditions across a species' distribution, forest management practices, changing ozone precursors, regulatory control strategies, and other factors influencing the spatial distribution of ozone over time as more information becomes available.KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment; GIS; Ozone; Risk characterization; Forests; Trees     

矿井重大灾害危险性评价的改进灰色统计法

用灰色统计理论［１］研究了矿井四大灾害即冒顶、水灾、火灾和瓦斯爆炸的危险性预评价问题，提出了一种新的评价方法──灰色统计综合法。同时，从应用的角度出发对灰色统计的算法作了改进，改进后的算法便于记忆和应用。     

Changes in risk perception among North Sea offshore personnel in the period 1990 to 1994

A self-completion questionnaire survey was carried out among employees on offshore oil platforms in the Norwegian part of the North Sea in February 1990 and repeated in February 1994. A total of 915 employees on eight platforms (five oil companies) answered the questionnaire in 1990 and the response rate was 92%. In 1994, 1138 respondents on twelve platforms and nine companies filled in the questionnaire. The response rate was 87%. Significantly fewer of the personnel felt at risk in 1994 compared to 1990. Likewise, a greater percentage of the employees were satisfied with safety and contingency measures, and experienced job stress to a lesser extent in 1994 than they did in 1990.     

灾害地图几个问题的初步研究

运用地图学的理论和方法，阐述了灾害地图的性质、内容、功能和作用，介绍了灾害地图的主要类型，探讨了灾害信息图形显示的过程、方法和手段，并提出了开展灾害地图研究的几点建议。     

建筑物火灾危险性评估的一种工程方法

提出了建筑物火灾危险性评估的一种工程方法。该方法基于建筑火灾的区域模拟理论和人员疏散的最新研究成果，分别计算出火灾中达到危险状态的时间和整个疏散过程所需的时间，通过对比这两个时间，来确定火灾危险性的大小。这种方法概念清晰，简单易行，能在一定程度上对实际建筑物的火灾危险性进行评估，也可用于对火灾的安全工程设计评价和安全咨询。