Perception of earthquake risk in Agadir,Morocco: A case study from a Muslim community

Earthquakes are separated from other hazards in meaning, significance, and risk perception throughout the Islamic World due to their specific focus in their own chapter or surah “al-Zalzala” (99th) in the Qur'an. Unlike earthquakes that are discussed in terms or the Judgment Day or as divine punishment or retribution against the disbelieving or hypocritical—other natural hazards like floods, tornadoes, and landslides are rarely discussed. An extensive survey of earthquake survivors and longtime residents was undertaken to better understand the perceptions of seismic risk in Agadir, Morocco where two moderate earthquakes razed the city in 1960 leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Most of the deaths were attributed to faulty construction (along with standards and enforcement), inaddition to poor evacuation plans.

During the summer of 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed and interviewed for their knowledge and perception of the disaster forty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French and English and included questions and Likertscaled responses including extensive interviews in the hopes of obtaining ideas of their potential quake recurrence, seismology, current construction standard policies, and local and regional planning strategies. In addition, reviews the Qur'an, Hadith and classical and contemporary tafasir texts were used to investigate the guiding passages used in Islamic discussions of “al-Zalzala”.

It was found that younger persons (<25yo) were more likely to believed that brick, mortar and cement structures were always safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless as to whether they are iron-reinforced or sub-standard (and hazardous) stone or brick infilled. After the 1960 disaster, speedy recovery efforts often undermined concrete construction and reinforcement techniques since such ‘rebar’ was relatively unavailable. Even today, inferior and seismically unstable construction practices are widely used.

It was found that television-watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the1960 event and earthquakes in general, were more widely understood by this group, supporting the notion that the medium of televisionis the most widely used, efficient, and fastest mass communication and education tool.

Less-educated respondents in general tended to attribute earthquakes to divine action and retribution. All questions, however, concerning the possibility of quake recurrence frequency or magnitude caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, or with the reply of ‘Allahu a'lam’ or “God is wisest”—implying or directly stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, quake-related construction, advanced architectural standards for seismic safety, and/or related education was ‘haram’ or prohibited by Islam.

Further discussions with participants in Agadir indicated that any guess, awareness or prediction was in fact, fortune-telling and therefore an act forbidden by the Qur'an and Hadith.

Finally, the less educated were more likely to say that Allah protected those who were devout and considered scientific assessment as futile, forecasting as forbidden, or new construction technologies as a waste since only the ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) or ‘munafiq’ (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from an earthquake. These conclusions are important toward gaining an insight of perception and risky behavior in a questionably constructed city with now more than 600,000 people 40 years later, and in a region laced by active faulting.     

基于转运站满负荷的北京市新东西城区生活垃圾物流优化方案研究

北京市新东城和新西城成立后迫切需要对现有生活垃圾物流方案进行优化,实现生活垃圾资源化处理.以北京市东西城区生活垃圾为研究对象,利用统计预测模型和GIS空间分析技术与方法,在分析了4个老城区生活垃圾产生量及所属密闭清洁站垃圾流向和流量基础上,提出了基于满负荷运行的三大转运站(马家楼、小武基和大屯)生活垃圾等距离收集运输优化物流模式,分析了现状及新物流模式下生活垃圾物料平衡.结果表明,与现状收集模式相比,等距离优化物流模式可使清运距离减少约9.3×105km.a-1,与现状相比减少10%;同时,基于三大转运站满负荷运转的,部分考虑海淀、丰台和朝阳区跨区运行的生活垃圾优化物流模式下,且充分利用现有的处理处置设施,可减少原生垃圾填埋量约28.3%.在优化模式的基础上若北京市正筹建的3座垃圾焚烧厂建成后,可使新东西城区生活垃圾焚烧、生化、填埋比例由现状1∶4.8∶4.2,达到3.8∶4.5∶1.7,可基本接近北京市2015年生活垃圾焚烧、堆肥和填埋比例达到4∶3∶3规划目标.     

油库项目环境风险评价案例分析

根据《建设项目环境风险评价技术导则》,对油库项目环评中的环境风险因子进行识别,并分析其风险源项。采用导则推荐的多烟团模式计算原油储罐泄漏引发池火事故后,对周围环境影响的范围和程度。因此对油库项目进行环境风险评价时,应重视油库泄漏事故对环境的影响。     

活性污泥模型参数实际可识别性研究方法

可识别性研究是参数估计的第一步。对目前应用于活性污泥模型参数实际可识别性研究的三种方法进行了综述,根据模型的复杂程度以及所要研究的参数数量,研究者可选用不同的方法。     

异构环保信息资源整合及归档系统的开发与应用

随着环保信息资源的不断丰富,不同应用系统生成的各种异构数据日益增多,信息孤岛现象十分严重。异构环保信息资源整合及归档系统将分散的信息系统进行有效整合,在异构平台上实现了信息收集、流转及共享利用,全面提升了环保档案的信息化建设水平,为新时期下环保档案信息管理工作提供了一条新途径。     

漓江沉积柱重金属垂向分布特征及污染评价

对桂林漓江3个采样点沉积柱状沉积物中主要重金属元素(Cd、Cr、Cu、Zn、Pb、As和Ni)的垂向分布进行了测定。结果表明:7种重金属元素具有相似的垂向变化特征;横向上表现为靠近市区的含量高远离,市区的含量低。地积累指数评价结果显示,远离市区的沉积柱7种金属污染程度较轻,仅有Cd和Ni属于无～中污染程度。临近市区的沉积柱形成污染的元素为Cd、Cu、Zn、Pb和As,主要集中在底层和次表层。     

Traffic behaviour among adolescents using mopeds and light motorcycles

INTRODUCTION: Motorcycling is recognized to be a relatively risky activity. Powered two wheelers (PTW) are classified as mopeds, light, and heavy motorcycles, the first two categories being denoted light PTWs. This paper reviews the scientific literature on accident risks and traffic behavior among users of light PTWs with the aim of clarifying the current state of knowledge. METHOD: Based on a risk analytical and an anthropological perspective on motorcycling, the paper discusses the significance of cultural and social factors as important aspects of safety. More targeted and effective safety measures, for example better training programs, are needed to prevent motorcycle accidents. This means developing a deeper understanding of the rider as an individual, and the individuals within different groups and settings. Why and how motorcyclists approach the road, its function as a social arena, the varieties of goals and values, and the motorcyclists' own perceptions of the behavior that ensures their "achievements" or "successes", are some of the issues. Today, this kind of knowledge is scarce and almost entirely absent from the scientific literature. RESULTS: We conclude that the massive quantities of data on numbers of accidents, the categorization of situations, the causal explanations related to speed, gender, age, lack of concentration so forth, can only be employed as support for safety measures as long as they are linked to social and cultural factors. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Risk informed decision making has become an integral part of authorities' and manufacturers' implementation of safety measures. This tendency is strengthened by the fact that the responsibility of product safety rests upon the manufacturers, cf. for example EU safety regulations. Therefore it is paramount that a thorough understanding of social and cultural factors related to the PTW driving is necessary for the industry to develop targeted and efficient safety measures.     

饮用水源地的水华对人体健康风险评价

饮用水源地的水华现象近年来在世界各地不断爆发,给人类饮水安全造成极大的威胁。本文通过检测微囊藻毒素和三卤甲烷类物质,利用急性暴露安全阈值（浓度）计算模型,计算出了各自的急性暴露安全阅值,并对健康风险进行了评价。     

电子政务工程项目档案管理的思考与实践

项目档案管理对于电子政务工程项目的成功实施具有十分重要的意义。通过对电子政务工程项目档案特性的分析,探讨了当前项目档案管理中存在的问题,提出了加强档案管理的措施和建议。并以国家环境信息与统计能力建设项目为例,对项目档案管理流程、手段和要求做了详细论述,为电子政务工程项目档案管理提供了有益的经验借鉴。     

西藏普莫雍错湖芯沉积物中重金属的垂向分布特征及生态风险评估

2008年7月采集了青藏高原南部普莫雍错的湖芯沉积物样品,利用微波消解和电感耦合等离子体质谱(ICP-MS)、电感耦合等离子体发射光谱仪(ICP-OES)分析了样品中Cr、Co、Ni、Cu、Zn、Cd、Pb、Mn和Fe的含量,其平均浓度分别为26.4μg·g-1、6.64μg·g-1、16.2μg·g-1、26.2μg·g-1、50.2μg·g-1、0.363μg·g-1、16.8μg·g-1、0.302 mg·g-1和9.84 mg·g-1,略高于南极沉积物,但低于人类影响较大的云南滇池、内蒙古岱海、北美五大湖和太湖相应浓度,处于较低浓度水平.重金属垂向浓度分布波动较小,表层浓度较高.主成分分析和聚类分析结果表明,有机质和Mn受地表径流陆源碎屑输入影响较大,而其他重金属主要受天然成岩风化及大气沉降影响.采用沉积物质量基准法和潜在生态风险指数法进行生态风险评估,结果表明普莫雍错沉积物中重金属的生态风险水平较低.