人误因素树构建技术研究

运用人误因素辨识多视图法进行因素辨识,建立了详细的因素辨识表;把人的行为分为5个阶段,即系统状态监测阶段,目标分析阶段,方案确定阶段和行为执行阶段.分别分析各个阶段可能的人误原因及模式;以组织视图为例,根据因素辨识和人误原因及模式分析结果,阐述人误因素树的构建过程,最终得到了1个完整的人误因素树.     

Managing disposal of water produced with petroleum in Kuwait

Disposal of water produced with petroleum has been of great interest in Kuwait for the last 20 years. The current problem arose when the Burgan oil field, which is the second largest field in the world, experienced successive increases in the water content of the produced oil. This study introduces a decision-making analysis of the considered alternatives for the disposal of the produced water. Four alternative solutions exist for the industry as practical solutions for the disposal of water produced in Kuwait. The first method utilizes a large number of pits to discharge water. The second alternative depends on discharging water into sealed pits. The third approach to dispose water is by injecting the water underground. The last method is similar to the previous one, but takes into consideration the recovery of reservoir pressure to maintain the rate of oil production. A questionnaire was distributed to 48 experts at the top management level of the petroleum companies and the governmental authority. The data collected considered cost, efficiency, and environmental parameters. Based on the data, a statistical analysis was conducted using the factor analysis method to reduce the number of investigated variables. The analysis concluded that the optimal solution is to use the effluent injection method to discharge water produced with oil in Burgan and similar fields in Kuwait.     

Harmony Hurts: Participation and Silent Conflict at an Indonesian Fish Pond

Participatory environmental and resource management is premised on open communication to reach consensus. However, deliberate and open communication cannot adequately address silent conflict. This begs two questions. First, how is the existence of covert communication and silent conflict to be recognized and addressed? Second, how are the wider social relations and traditions that encompass communication and conflict to be described and explained? These questions revolve around communicative power. Communication of environmental knowledge is deeply embedded in social power structures, with direct implications for participatory resource planning and implementation. Ethnographic research conducted at a failed community-managed fish farming project in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia shows that a culture of harmony and respect for authority can silence environmental conflict in the hierarchical “community.” Three propositions are offered. First, communication amnesia and exclusion jeopardize participation. Second, cultures of harmony and silent conflict shape planning processes and outcomes. Third, the weak use manipulation and communication strategy to acquire a “voice” while preserving harmony. These propositions address five unresolved issues in participatory resource management: analysis of groups, contextuality, social relationships, nonparticipants, and informal communication. Power, tradition, and social networks affect the valuing of knowledge relative to the power of different individuals and institutions to communicate priorities, values, and needs. These factors are critical to the inclusion of both participants and nonparticipants.     

Assessing the Institutional Effectiveness of State Environmental Agencies in Turkey

Improving the performance of the state environmental agencies (SEAs) necessitates an effective institutionalization of governmental environmental management functions. There are examples of successful and unsuccessful SEAs in several parts of the world. Analysis and assessment of these cases can deliver useful insights for institution builders. The objective of this article is the assessment of the institutional effectiveness of the SEAs in Turkey through the perceptions of the experts using the Delphi Technique. In this regard, a checklist is developed including 16 criteria and 123 subcriteria to measure the institutional effectiveness of the SEAs. Twenty-eight national and international experts have formed a Delphi panel and evaluated the national and local conditions. Results, based on the perceptions of the experts, indicate that the overall effectiveness of the SEAs is far less than satisfactory. Negative consensus has been reached over the effectiveness of 13 of the16 criteria and 95 of the123 subcriteria; however, no consensus has been achieved over the remainder of the parameters. The survey has also proven that the Delphi Technique can be effectively used for that purpose. Utilization of the checklist method is also useful in diagnosing the problematic components of the SEAs. It is recommended that this approach be used in similar cases elsewhere.     

Definition of Homogeneous Environmental Management Units for the Catalan Coast

Geographical areas constitute the basic implementation locus for integrated coastal zone management strategies and activities. Because the definition of territorial planning objectives may be affected by socioeconomic and environmental characteristics, one of the main steps in the process involves dividing the coast into homogeneous environmental management units (HEMUs). This article presents a general and simple method for regionalizing the landside of a coastal zone into HEMUs and illustrates it through application to the Catalan coast. Socioeconomic and natural (biophysical) subsystems were selected as the most appropriate dimensions of the regionalization process. Dimensions were described using 11 spatial themes, which were managed in a geographic information system environment that proved to be an adequate tool for the purpose. A final coastal zone map of four classes of HEMUs connected to local administrative units was obtained, and because it reflects the current natural and socioeconomic dynamics, it can be considered as an initial step in the planning process for the Catalan coast. Although the proposed method was developed based on the characteristics of the Catalan coast, it is general enough to be adapted and applied to most developed or developing coastal areas.     

TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.     

Great Basin Land Management Planning Using Ecological Modeling

This report describes a land management modeling effort that analyzed potential impacts of proposed actions under an updated Bureau of Land Management Resource Management Plan that will guide management for 20 years on 4.6 million hectares in the Great Basin ecoregion of the United States. State-and-transition models that included vegetation data, fire histories, and many parameters (i.e., rates of succession, fire return intervals, outcomes of management actions, and invasion rates of native and nonnative invasive species) were developed through workshops with scientific experts and range management specialists. Alternative restoration scenarios included continuation of current management, full fire suppression, wildfire use in designated fire use zones, wildfire use in resilient vegetation types only, restoration with a tenfold budget increase, no restoration treatments, and no livestock grazing. Under all the scenarios, cover of vegetation states with native perennial understory declined and was replaced by tree-invaded and weed-dominated states. The greatest differences among alternative management scenarios resulted from the use of fire as a tool to maintain native understory. Among restoration scenarios, only the scenario assuming a tenfold budget increase had a more desirable outcome than the current management scenario. Removal of livestock alone had little effect on vegetation resilience. Rather, active restoration was required. The predictive power of the model was limited by current understanding of Great Basin vegetation dynamics and data needs including statistically valid monitoring of restoration treatments, invasiveness and invasibility, and fire histories. The authors suggest that such computer models can be useful tools for systematic analysis of potential impacts in land use planning. However, for a modeling effort to be productive, the management situation must be conducive to open communication among land management agencies and partner entities, including nonprofit organizations.     

Toward Reversal of Eutrophic Conditions in a Subtropical Estuary: Water Quality and Seagrass Response to Nitrogen Loading Reductions in Tampa Bay, Florida, USA

Coastal waters have been significantly influenced by increased inputs of nutrients that have accompanied population growth in adjacent drainage basins. In Tampa Bay, Florida, USA, the population has quadrupled since 1950. By the late 1970s, eutrophic conditions including phytoplankton and macroalgal blooms and seagrass losses were evident. The focus of improving Tampa Bay is centered on obtaining sufficient water quality necessary for restoring seagrass habitat, estimated to have been 16,400 ha in 1950 but reduced to 8800 ha by 1982. To address these problems, targets for nutrient load reductions along with seagrass restoration goals were developed and actions were implemented to reach adopted targets. Empirical regression models were developed to determine relationships between chlorophyll a concentrations and light attenuation adequate for sustainable seagrass growth. Additional empirical relationships between nitrogen loading and chlorophyll a concentrations were developed to determine how Tampa Bay responds to changes in loads. Data show that when nitrogen load reduction and chlorophyll a targets are met, seagrass cover increases. After nitrogen load reductions and maintenance of chlorophyll a at target levels, seagrass acreage has increased 25% since 1982, although more than 5000 ha of seagrass still require recovery. The cooperation of scientists, managers, and decision makers participating in the Tampa Bay Estuary Program’s Nitrogen Management Strategy allows the Tampa Bay estuary to continue to show progress towards reversing many of the problems that once plagued its waters. These results also highlight the importance of a multi-entity watershed management process in maintaining progress towards science-based natural resource goals.     

Policy Windows, Policy Change, and Organizational Learning: Watersheds in the Evolution of Watershed Management

Employing in-depth, elite interviews, this empirical research contributes to understanding the dynamics among policy windows, policy change, and organizational learning. First, although much of the research on agenda setting—how issues attract enough attention that action is taken to address them—has been conducted at the national scale, this work explores the subnational, regional scale. With decentralization, regional-scale environmental decision-making has become increasingly important. Second, this research highlights the role of policy windows and instances of related organizational learning identified by natural resources managers. Having practitioners identify focusing events contrasts with the more typical approach of the researcher identifying a particular focusing event or events to investigate. A focusing event is a sudden, exceptional experience that, because of how it leads to harm or exposes the prospect for great devastation, is perceived as the impetus for policy change.