1,2,4-三氯苯对3种海洋微藻的毒性效应

1,2,4-三氯苯(1,2种,4-TCB)是环境中普遍存在的持久性有机污染物之一,而1,2,4-TCB对藻类的毒性作用报道很少。以1,2,4-TCB处理后,3种海洋微藻(金藻Isochrysis Zhanjiangensis、角毛藻Platymonas Subcordiformis和扁藻Chaetoceros miielleri)的生长状况、蛋白质质量分数和叶绿素质量分数的改变来检测1,2,4-TCB对海洋微藻的毒性效应。结果表明:1,2,4-TCB对3种海洋微藻的生长均有一定的抑制作用,该效应表现出一定的浓度和时间依赖性;1,2,4-TCB处理4d后,3种海洋微藻细胞蛋白质质量分数和叶绿素质量分数下降,呈现一定的浓度—效应关系,这表明1,2,4-TCB对3种海洋微藻产生毒害效应,其作用机制可能与藻类光合作用功能降低和蛋白质功能受损有关。1,2,4-TCB在一定程度上降低了藻类饵料的利用价值,而且对食物链下游生物具有潜在的危害性。     

White tail plumage and brood sex ratio in dark-eyed juncos (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Junco hyemalis thurberi</Emphasis>)

Theory, empirical examples, and recently, proximate mechanisms point to the possibility of adaptive sex ratio adjustment in various organisms. General predictions state that a female should adjust her offspring sex ratio to maximize the benefits or minimize the costs of reproduction given her physical condition or current social and environmental conditions. I tested for an influence of male attractiveness on brood sex ratio in a population of dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis thurberi) by manipulating a male’s white outer tail feathers (“tail white”). Experimentally increasing male tail white did not significantly affect sex ratio, nor was premanipulated male tail white significantly related to brood sex ratio. However, the amount of white on the female’s outer tail feathers, independently of female condition, was positively related to the number of sons in a brood. Determining how a female’s potential genetic contribution to her sons’ attractiveness influences offspring sex ratio should be a priority for future research.     

Evaluation of CFD Simulation using RANS Turbulence Models for Building Effects on Pollutant Dispersion

CFD evaluations were performed to examine the applicability of the RANS methods in simulating pollutant dispersion near, within and over three typical building configurations: (1) an isolated building, (2) a building array and (3) an urban intersection. The CFD results are compared with values obtained from wind tunnel tests. In some situations major differences between the wind tunnel tests and the CFD results were observed. The main source of difference between the CFD and wind tunnel results was inadequate modelling of local flow patterns using the RANS turbulence models. Also inappropriate evaluation of high intermittent turbulent mixing in the RANS approach may lead to either over-prediction or under-prediction of the concentration level, by up to a factor of 10, depending on the case investigated.     

Modelling Regression and Dispersion Parameters in a Complex Repeated Measures Experiment

We analyze data from a complex repeated measures experiment directed at the evaluation of the response to an electric stimulus applied to mussel nerves under 5 different salinity levels. We discuss the form of the relation between the response and the different salinity levels, as well as the choice of an adequate within subjects covariance structure that includes random effects and autoregressive models.     

Cost-effective environmental policy: implications of induced technological change

Cost-effective environmental policy generally requires that all emission sources are faced with the same tax. In this paper I discuss how the existence of induced technological change may alter this result, if at least some of the effect is external to the firm. Focusing on Learning by doing (LBD) effects in abatement activities, it is shown that emission sources with external learning effects should be faced with a higher tax than emission sources with only autonomous technological change. By using simple numerical simulations, it is further investigated to what degree a cost-effective climate policy differs from a free quota market, under various assumptions about learning effects, diffusion of technology and environmental targets. The results indicate that optimal taxes may be significantly higher in the industrial world than in the developing world. Moreover, the industrial world's share of global abatement may be much higher in a cost-effective solution than in a free quota market. The global cost savings of a fully flexible implementation of the Kyoto Protocol are further questioned, as potential spillover effects of technological growth in the industrial world are not internalised in the market.     

Efficient statistical mapping of avian count data

We develop a spatial modeling framework for count data that is efficient to implement in high-dimensional prediction problems. We consider spectral parameterizations for the spatially varying mean of a Poisson model. The spectral parameterization of the spatial process is very computationally efficient, enabling effective estimation and prediction in large problems using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We apply this model to creating avian relative abundance maps from North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. Variation in the ability of observers to count birds is modeled as spatially independent noise, resulting in over-dispersion relative to the Poisson assumption. This approach represents an improvement over existing approaches used for spatial modeling of BBS data which are either inefficient for continental scale modeling and prediction or fail to accommodate important distributional features of count data thus leading to inaccurate accounting of prediction uncertainty.     

Relating chronic toxicity responses to population-level effects: A comparison of population-level parameters for three salmon species as a function of low-level toxicity

Standard laboratory toxicity tests assess the physiological responses of individual organisms to exposure to toxic substances under controlled conditions. Time and space restrictions often prevent the assessment of population-level responses to a toxic substance. Contaminants can affect various biological functions (e.g. growth, fecundity or behavior), which may alter different demographic traits, leading to population-level impacts. In this study, immune suppression, reproductive dysfunction and somatic growth impairment were examined using life history matrix models for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch), sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) and chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Our intent was to gauge the relative magnitude of response to toxic effects among species and between life history stages, not provide a specific estimate of population growth rate or abundance. Effects due to immune suppression were modeled as reductions in age-specific survival. Toxic impacts on reproductive function were modeled as a 10% reduction in reproductive contribution for all reproductively mature age groups. Model runs that examined the effect of somatic growth reduction on population parameters incorporated both survival and reproductive impacts. All impacts were modeled as 10% reductions in the affected population demographic parameters. First-year survival and reproductive impacts produced similar population growth rates (λ), but resulted in different sensitivity and stable age distributions. Modeled somatic growth reduction produced additive effects on survival and reproduction. Toxic stressors producing similar changes in λ did not necessarily produce similar changes in the age distributions. Sensitivity and elasticity analyses demonstrated that changes to the first-year survival rate produced the greatest per-unit effect on λ for each species. Alteration in abundance of mature females also strongly influenced λ. Differences observed between species showed that the number of reproductive ages and time to reproductive maturity were important components for population-level responses. These results emphasize the importance of linking toxicity responses at low concentrations to the demographic traits they affect, and help to highlight the toxicity tests that are more suitable for assessing impacts on the focal species. Additionally, life history modeling is a useful tool for developing testable hypotheses regarding impacts on specific populations as well as for conducting comparisons between populations.     

Sociological edge effects: Spatial distribution of human impact in suburban forest fragments

Suburban forest fragments often experience heavy recreational and waste disposal use, with considerable damage to the vegetation. To suggest strategies for conservation of the forest flora, spatial distributions of human impact were described in 40 fragmentary stands in northern New Castle County, Delaware. The distribution of human impact showed a significant bias to the forest edge, with 95% of localized damage occurring in the first 82 m. Forms of impact related to lawn maintenance fell significantly closer to the edge than impacts related to recreation and showed the strongest edge orientation. Edge distances of campsites, vandalized trees, and firewood gathering were negatively correlated with distance to the nearest graded road, indicating the importance of road access. Several forms of impact were also clustered near footpaths, although distance to paths was independent of edge distance in all cases. In terms of penetration of the forest and severity of damage, human impact greatly exceeds natural edge effects reported for this community. These findings suggest that damage may be minimized by limiting road access and avoiding the creation of small forest fragments.     

SPATIALLY OPTIMIZING FOREST MANAGEMENT SCHEDULES TO MEET STORMFLOW CONSTRAINTS1

ABSTRACT: A spatial optimization model is developed and used to limit cumulative effects resulting from storm events by strategically arranging and scheduling forest treatments to meet peak storm-flow constraints. A mixed integer forest management scheduling formulation is used to select the location and timing of forest treatments. The approach includes simulated spatial routing of storm-flows imbedded as hydrologic process constraints (in a nested schedule) within longer-term forest management planning periods in the mathematical programming model. Although difficult to solve, the model shows promise for further research.