黄土丘陵区退耕还林工程对县域粮食安全的影响——以陕西省清涧、米脂、子洲、吴堡县为例

为了评估黄土丘陵区实施退耕还林工程对县域粮食安全的影响,选取研究区典型四县——米脂、清涧、子洲和吴堡,假设实施退耕还林工程粮食补贴全部以粮食实物兑现和不实施退耕还林工程退耕的坡耕地提供粮食生产为前提,运用修订的耕地压力指数模型来对比评估退耕还林工程对县域粮食安全的影响。研究结果表明:退耕还林工程对米脂县和子洲县粮食安全影响较明显,对清涧县和吴堡县影响甚微。不同退耕规模对不同人口密度县域粮食安全的影响程度不同。研究结果对国家建立长期、稳定、有效的粮食补偿机制有一定参考意义。     

盐城海岸湿地资源环境压力与生态调控响应

江苏盐城海岸湿地拥有以保护丹顶鹤和麋鹿为特色的两个国家级自然保护区。然而强烈的人类活动贯穿于海岸湿地发育的每一个阶段,包括湿地围垦、资源酷取滥采以及环境污染等,使得该区资源环境面临的压力不断增大。通过对其资源环境特征、人口经济发展压力、湿地不合理开发利用压力以及水资源污染压力的分析,进而利用生态调控设计相应的政策措施响应方案,包括生态规划与设计---科学的生态功能区划,调整若干原缓冲区中生物多样性热点区为核心区;生态工程---生境更新与调整,建立人工湿地生态工程、芦苇生态工程、生态旅游等生态示范区;生态系统管理与能力建设---社区共管,与周围社区居民建立有效的伙伴关系。     

基于面板数据的我国城市水资源水环境随机前沿面分析

科学客观的评价城市水资源利用差异、明晰造成差异的原因可以为决策部门制定适宜的用水供水政策提供科学依据.收集了全国283个城市15年的市辖区城市建设用地面积、市辖区年末总人口、市辖区供水总量、市辖区年末实有城市道路面积、市辖区地区生产总值、污水排放总量.采用基于面板数据的随机前沿面模型计算主要城市的水资源利用效率和水环境压力,结果显示我国主要地级城市水资源利用效率普遍不高,平均值为0.464,低于平均值的城市有167个,占评估城市的59.01%.城市水环境压力具有普遍性,平均水环境压力为0.347,高于平均值的城市有106个,占评估城市的37.46%.发挥区域地理优势,加强区域间技术合作,因地制宜的开展诸如调整产业结构,引进先进生产技术和设备等相关提高水资源利用效率、减小水环境压力的举措,是实现水资源利用和城市可持续发展的重要途径.     

小冲杆试验测定重离子辐照A508-3钢的硬化和脆化

目的采用小冲杆测试方法测量高能重离子辐照反应堆压力容器A508-3钢的辐照硬化和脆化特性,为工况条件下反应堆压力容器寿命预测提供实验依据。方法采用兰州重离子加速器提供的高能C^(6+)离子通过减能装置在290℃条件下开展A508-3钢辐照实验,并在样品表面形成一定厚度、准均匀分布的离位损伤层。通过开展不同辐照剂量辐照样品的小冲杆测试,得到不同辐照剂量A508-3钢的小冲杆载荷-位移曲线。通过对小冲杆测试得到的载荷-位移曲线的分析,测定不同辐照剂量样品的辐照硬化和脆化特性。结果压力容器A508-3钢辐照样品的硬化和脆化随着辐照剂量的增加逐渐增强,0.15 dpa以前呈线性增长,而后缓慢增大,约0.2 dpa时达到饱和趋势。结论通过小冲杆测试可以得到离子辐照样品的硬化和脆化行为,A508-3钢辐照硬化和脆化行为具有一致的变化趋势。     

火箭测试平台多通道脉动压力的同步采集与数据回收

目的 实现火箭测试平台多通道脉动压力的同步采集与数据回收.方法 在多时钟的采样系统内,采用统一的同步触发信号作为各通道的采样使能,实现40通道脉动压力的同步采集.采用"采存分离"的设计方法 将存储电路从采样系统中分离,仅对存储电路进行抗冲击防护,通过火炮试验考核抗冲击性,通过回收存储电路实现数据回收.结果 40通道的采...     

Social environment versus cycling competency predicting risk-taking in 11- to 13-year-old cyclists in The Netherlands

Abstract

Objectives: From age 12 onwards, cycling injuries begin rising in The Netherlands. A known contributing factor is younger children’s underdeveloped competency to deal with complex and hazardous traffic situations, and their exposure to such situations strongly increases after transitioning to secondary school. Little is known about intentional risk-taking as a contributing factor. In this developmental stage, children become increasingly vulnerable because of intentional risk-taking, affecting their safety and health. The incidence, predictors in the child’s social environment, and trends of such risks are systematically monitored; for instance, for alcohol use, smoking, and cyber bullying. Such monitors do not include risky road behavior. This exploratory field study examined the frequency of intentional risky cycling, its relationship with the perceived social environment, and relative to cycling competency measured as the ability to detect emerging hazards quickly.

Methods: Three hundred thirty-five students between 11 and 13 years of age (51% male) completed computerized tests of hazard perception skill and surveys on crashes, risk-taking, peer pressure, perceived risk-taking by parents or friends, and exposure to risky driving as passenger.

Results: Frequent risk-taking was associated with higher crash frequency. Stepwise regression confirmed that children who more often took risks on the road were also more sensitive to peer pressure, had more often been passengers of risky drivers, had parents and friends who exhibited risky behaviors in traffic more often, and perceived hazards as less dangerous but, in contrast to expectations, did not do worse on the detection of hazards. The predictors explained 28% of the variance in total risk-taking but varied from 6 to 20% depending on the specific risk-taking behavior concerned.

Conclusions: At least 20% of children sometimes or more often take risks in traffic. Children who feel peer pressure to behave in a risky manner, observe parents and friends behaving in a risky manner in traffic, and have been exposed as passengers to risky driving more often take risks in traffic themselves. These results provide support for including items on risky road behavior in health monitors and to design interventions that address the risk factors in the child’s perceived social environment.     

Effects of spatial autocorrelation and sampling design on estimates of protected area effectiveness

Estimating the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in reducing deforestation is useful to support decisions on whether to invest in better management of areas already protected or to create new ones. Statistical matching is commonly used to assess this effectiveness, but spatial autocorrelation and regional differences in protection effectiveness are frequently overlooked. Using Colombia as a case study, we employed statistical matching to account for confounding factors in park location and accounted for for spatial autocorrelation to determine statistical significance. We compared the performance of different matching procedures—ways of generating matching pairs at different scales—in estimating PA effectiveness. Differences in matching procedures affected covariate similarity between matched pairs (balance) and estimates of PA effectiveness in reducing deforestation. Independent matching yielded the greatest balance. On average 95% of variables in each region were balanced with independent matching, whereas 33% of variables were balanced when using the method that performed worst. The best estimates suggested that average deforestation inside protected areas in Colombia was 40% lower than in matched sites. Protection significantly reduced deforestation, but PA effectiveness differed among regions. Protected areas in Caribe were the most effective, whereas those in Orinoco and Pacific were least effective. Our results demonstrate that accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using independent matching for each subset of data is needed to infer the effectiveness of protection in reducing deforestation. Not accounting for spatial autocorrelation can distort the assessment of protection effectiveness, increasing type I and II errors and inflating effect size. Our method allowed improved estimates of protection effectiveness across scales and under different conditions and can be applied to other regions to effectively assess PA performance.     

不同冲击速度下硬煤的力学特性试验研究

为了研究硬煤破坏过程中的动态力学特性，采用Φ50 mm变截面分离式霍普金森压杆（SHPB）试验系统，对45#钢制薄壁套筒施加环向约束的硬煤试件进行不同加载速率的冲击压缩试验，得到被动围压下轴向应力-应变曲线、径向应力-应变曲线及最大被动围压和冲击速度的关系。研究结果表明:峰值应力、峰值应变随着冲击速度的增大而增大，最大被动围压值与冲击速度呈幂次增长的关系；被动围压下的硬煤试件变形受到限制，试件延性、抗压能力显著提高；随着冲击速度的增大，薄壁套筒对试件的约束也逐渐增大，达到峰值后，冲击速度对被动围压的影响减小，筒壁厚度影响着被动围压效果。     

An ecological economics approach to the management of a multi-purpose coastal wetland

Three interrelated management problems—eutrophication of multiple use shallow lakes, sea level rise and flood risk mitigation and tourism pressures—are analysed in the context of an internationally important wetland area, the Norfolk and Suffolk Broads in the UK. The ecological-economic research findings presented should provide essential information to underpin the regulatory and management process in this internationally important conservation area. The relevant authority somehow has to integrate the maintenance of public navigation rights, nature conservation, and tourism promotion in a highly dynamic ecosystems setting. Because of the stakeholder conflicts, potential and actual, a more inclusionary decision-making procedure is required, and is currently being implemented.     

传递系数法在滑坡稳定性评价中的几个问题探讨

本文运用LASA软件,分析了采用传递系数法计算滑坡稳定系数时,传递系数计算式、条块划分、渗透压力计算对稳定系数的影响。传递系数计算式的分析得出采用迭代法求解是比较合理的方法;通过实例对条块划分导致的影响分析,可知条块划分应当尽量与滑体的实际情况相符合才可以减小计算误差;渗透压力计算分析指出稳定性计算考虑动水压力时,应当根据不同情况选择不同水力坡降计算式。