A Bayesian network-based approach for the assessment and management of ageing in major hazard establishments

Currently, there is an increasing attention towards ageing of industrial equipment, as the phenomenon has been recognised as a cause of severe accidents, recorded in the last years in many process establishments. Recent studies described ageing through a number of key-factors affecting the phenomenon by accelerating or slowing it down. The Italian Competent Authority for the prevention of chemical accidents (Seveso III Directive) adopted a short-cut method, accounting for the assessment of these factors, to evaluate the adequateness of ageing management during inspections at Seveso sites. In this paper, a Bayesian Network was developed, by using the data gathered during the first application of the short-cut method, with the aim to verify the robustness of the approach for ageing assessment and the validity of the a priori assumptions used in assessing the key-factors. The structure of the Bayesian network was established by using experts’ knowledge, whereas the Counting Learning algorithm was adopted to execute the parameter learning by means of the software Netica. The results showed that this network could effectively explore the complex logical and uncertain relationships amongst factors affecting equipment ageing. Results of the present study were exploited to improve the short-cut method.     

Inherent thermal runaway hazard evaluation method of chemical process based on fire and explosion index

Thermal runaway hazard assessment provides the basis for comparing the hazard levels of different chemical processes. To make an overall evaluation, hazard of materials and reactions should be considered. However, most existing methods didn't take the both into account simultaneously, which may lead the assessment to a deviation from the actual hazard. Therefore, an integrated approach called Inherent Thermal-runaway Hazard Index (ITHI) was developed in this paper. Similar to Dow Fire and Explosion Index(F&EI) function, thermal runaway hazard of chemical process in ITHI was the product of material factor (MF) and risk index (RI) of reaction. MF was an indicator of material thermal hazards, which can be determined by initial reaction temperature and maximum power density. RI, which was the product of probability and severity, indicated the risk of thermal runaway during the reaction stage. Time to maximum rate under adiabatic conditions and criticality classes of scenario were used to indicate the runaway probability of the chemical process. Adiabatic temperature rise and heat of the desired reaction and secondary reaction were used to determine the severity of runaway reaction. Finally, predefined hazard classification criteria was used to classify and interpret the results obtained by this method. Moreover, the method was validated by case studies.     

Experimental research of LNG accidental underwater release and combustion behavior

Evaluating potential hazards caused by accidental LNG release from underwater pipelines or vessels is a significant consideration in marine transportation safety. The aim of this study was to capture the dynamic behavior of LNG jet released under water and to analyze its vapor dispersion characteristics and combustion characteristics on the water surface during different release scenarios. Controlled experiments were conducted where LNG was jet released from a cryogenic storage tank. The dynamic process of LNG being jet released from orifices of different sizes and shapes, as well as the rising plume structure, were captured by a high-speed camera. The leakage flow rate and pipeline pressure were recorded by a flow meter and pressure gauge, respectively. The concentration distribution that emanated from the water surface was measured utilizing methane sensors in different positions with various wind speeds. The flame combustion characteristics of LNG vapor clouds, which immediately ignited upon the enclosed water tank, were also recorded. Additionally, the mass burning rate of the flame on the water surface was evaluated, and a new correlation between the ratio of flame length and width was established. The results indicated a large dimensionless heat release rate (Q*) and a continuous release flow rate in a limited burning area. This study could provide greater understanding of the mechanisms of LNG release and combustion behavior under water.     

Failure mode and effect analysis using regret theory and PROMETHEE under linguistic neutrosophic context

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), which aims to identify and assess potential failure modes in a system, has been widely utilized in diverse areas for improving and enhancing the performance of systems due to it is a powerful and useful risk and reliability assessment instrument. However, the conventional FMEA approach has been suffered several criticisms for it has some shortcomings, such as unable to handle ambiguous and uncertain information, neglect the relative weights of risk criteria, and without considering the psychological behaviors of decision-makers. To ameliorate these limitations, this paper aims at establishing a hybrid risk ranking model of FMEA via combing linguistic neutrosophic numbers, regret theory, and PROMETHEE (Preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation) approach. In the presented model, linguistic neutrosophic numbers are adopted to capture decision-makers’ evaluation regarding the failure modes on each risk criterion. A modified PROMETHEE approach based on regret theory is presented to obtain the risk priority of failure modes considering the psychological behaviors of decision-makers. Moreover, a maximizing deviation model and TOPSIS (Technique for order preference similar to ideal solution) are separately applied to derive the weights of risk criteria and decision-makers. Finally, a numerical example relating to the supercritical water gasification system is employed to implement the presented method, and the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model are validated by the results derived from a sensitivity and comparison analysis.     

Study on explosion risk of aluminum powder under different dispersions

This paper mainly studied the influence of particle size distribution on the explosion risk of aluminum powder under the span of large particle size distribution. The measurement was carried out with the 20 L explosion ball and the Hartmann tube. The statistical analysis was used to analyze the relevance between the parameters of explosion risk and the particle size parameters. Test results showed that with the increase of particle size, the sensitivity parameter increases and the intensity parameter deceleration decreases. The effect of particle size change on MEC and MIE of small particle size aluminum powder is relatively small but greater impact on Pm and (dP/dt)m. The small particle size components greatly increasing the sensitivity of the explosion and accelerating the rate of the explosion reaction; while the large particle size component contributes to the maximum explosion pressure. D_3,2 particle size dust determines the risk of aluminum powder explosion.     

Recent application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in process safety and loss prevention: A review

In recent years, significant progress has been made to ensure that process industries are among the safest workplaces in the world. However, with the increasing complexity of existing technologies and new problems brought about by emerging technologies, a strong need still exists to study the fundamentals of process safety and predict possible scenarios. This is attained by conducting the corresponding consequence modeling and risk assessments. As a result of the continuous advancement of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools and exponentially increased computation capabilities along with better understandings of the underlying physics, CFD simulations have been applied widely in the areas of process safety and loss prevention to gain new insights, improve existing models, and assess new hazardous scenarios. In this review, 126 papers from 2010 to 2020 have been included in order to systematically categorize and summarize recent applications of CFD for fires, explosions, dispersions of flammable and toxic materials from accidental releases, incident investigations and reconstructions, and other areas of process safety. The advantages of CFD modeling are discussed and the future of CFD applications in this research area is outlined.     

Misoperation monitoring and early warning during startup and shutdown of petrochemical units

Most petrochemical units run under extreme conditions, such as high temperatures, pressures, and speeds. Consequently, the equipment operators may commit errors because the startup and shutdown processes usually involve complicated operation steps; moreover, the operators may lack experience in handling abnormal situations. Misoperation can lead to accidents, including fires and explosions. Thus, risk analysis for process operations and the development of preventive measures have become an effective means of avoiding misoperation-related accidents. However, it is challenging to ensure the comprehensiveness of risk-analysis results. In this paper, we present a method for misoperation monitoring and early warning in the startup and shutdown processes of petrochemical units. The mechanisms of misoperation occurrence are summarized based on investigations of serious accidents in the recent past. Knowledge regarding the mechanisms of misoperation is crucial for the risk analysis of petrochemical units. The potential risk information, such as causes, adverse consequences, key monitoring parameters, and prevention control solutions, should be acquired and be employed to construct an early-warning knowledge database. Furthermore, misoperation judgment rules need to be formulated to identify misoperations. The data obtained from the monitoring module, misoperation judgment rules, and analysis results can aid in developing schemes to avoid possible abnormal situations. This paper reports a misoperation monitoring and early-warning system for a hydrogenation unit. As demonstrated, conducting risk analysis to determine the potential operational risks and formulating misoperation judgment rules to analyze the process data are essential for enabling early warning. The application of this method will contribute to operational guidance, economic loss reduction, and accident avoidance.     

四川省眉山市“三线一单”编制案例分析

通过四川省眉山市“三线一单”编制试点工作的开展,探索出适合四川省情、尺度得当、具有可操作性的环境管控单元划分方法和适用技术方法以及生态环境准入清单制定原则,为全省“三线一单”编制工作的顺利推进起到了示范和引领作用。     

“三线一单”促进四川省高质量发展

过去40年来我国经济建设取得了举世瞩目的成绩,但是也留下了很多生态环境问题。目前我国经济已经由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,但高质量发展缺乏指标体系和具体路径。“三线一单”是一套生态环境分区管控体系,其主要目的是统筹地方社会经济与环境保护的矛盾,促进经济结构转型。四川省在“三线一单”编制过程中,通过建立指标体系从生态环境保护的角度为地区高质量发展提供了量化标准,通过差异化管控要求为地区高质量发展提供了具体路径,从生态环境角度助力高质量发展。