汉江流域1951~2003年降水气温时空变化趋势分析

利用Mann Kendall检验方法和空间插值方法，分析了1951~2003年汉江流域年和春、夏、秋、冬四季降水和气温变化趋势的时空分布，并重点分析了丹江口水库上游年降水、年平均气温和北半球气温的变化趋势及相互间的联系。分析发现，在显著性水平α=0.1上，近50年来汉江流域大部分地区降水没有明显的变化趋势，气温呈上升趋势。丹江口水库上游降水在1991年发生突变，从20世纪80年代多雨期进入90年代少雨期，80年代平均降水比1951~2003年多年平均降水多9.7%，90年代平均降水比多年平均降水少11.6%；上游平均气温90年代比多年平均气温高0.2℃，而同期北半球的平均气温也比多年平均高了0.3℃，上游气温同北半球气温同步上升，而上游降水变化受北半球气温升高的影响不断减少，两者之间存在反相关系。分析成果有助于进一步研究气候变化对汉江流域水资源和防洪安全的影响，也将为南水北调中线工程的顺利实施提供科学依据。     

Incidence rates and risk factors for injury events in high school students in Lijin County, China

PROBLEM: Most investigations of injuries among Chinese populations are focused on urban or better developed areas, fewer on rural or poor areas. METHODS: From September 21 to 27, 2002, an epidemiological investigation of eight kinds of injury-related events was carried out among 1,944 students in 39 classes randomly sampled from middle schools in Lijin County, a rural area. The eight kinds of events were: (a) traffic accidents, (b) poisoning, (c) fall, (d) burn or scald, (e) blunt or sharp tools contact, (f) electrical contact, (g) animal or insect bites, and (h) non-fatal drowning. RESULTS: The total incidence rate of eight kinds of injuries in the previous year was 21.1%. The incidence rate among boys was 24.2%, while that among girls was 17.4%, which was significant (chi-square=13.4, P<0.05). The incidence rate among junior high school students was 23.1%, while that among senior high school students was 15.5%, which was also significant (chi-square=13.2, P<0.05). A case-control study of 410 students with at least one of eight kinds of injury events indicated that students' gender and their mothers' health status were related to their injuries. CONCLUSION: The injury incidence rate in a rural area was less than other results in urban or developed areas. Students' gender and mothers' health status were important factors associated with the occurrence of injury. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: In order to improve the surroundings of the growing population of adolescents, some preventive measures should be put forward, especially to the high-risk students of injury.     

The crash severity impacts of fixed roadside objects

INTRODUCTION: This study analyzes the in-service performance of roadside hardware on the entire urban State Route system in Washington State by developing multivariate statistical models of injury severity in fixed-object crashes using discrete outcome theory. The objective is to provide deeper insight into significant factors that affect crash severities involving fixed roadside objects, through improved statistical efficiency along with disaggregate and multivariate analysis. METHOD: The developed models are multivariate nested logit models of injury severity and they are estimated with statistical efficiency using the method of full information maximum likelihood. RESULTS: The results show that leading ends of guardrails and bridge rails, along with large wooden poles (e.g. trees and utility poles) increase the probability of fatal injury. The face of guardrails is associated with a reduction in the probability of evident injury, and concrete barriers are shown to be associated with a higher probability of lower severities. Other variables included driver characteristics, which showed expected results, validating the model. For example, driving over the speed limit and driving under the influence of alcohol increase the probability of fatal accidents. Drivers that do not use seatbelts are associated with an increase in the probability of more severe injuries, even when an airbag is activated. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The presented models show the contribution of guardrail leading ends toward fatal injuries. It is therefore important to use well-designed leading ends and to upgrade badly performing leading ends on guardrails and bridges. The models also indicate the importance of protecting vehicles from crashes with rigid poles and tree stumps, as these are linked with greater severities and fatalities.     

Designing sensor systems capable of differentiating children from adults

INTRODUCTION: Injury prevention systems intended to prevent children from entering hazardous locations (or at least alert caregivers if that occurs) often respond to every instance of a person's presence, regardless of whether the intruder is a child. This performance results in a high nuisance alarm rate that sometimes causes adults to disable or circumvent the safety system. If a child safety system can accurately identify intruders as adults or children, nuisance alarm rates can be decreased. METHOD: This analysis selects three human factors (height, foot length, and cognition) amenable to adult/child differentiation and describes likely sensor strategies, advantages, and disadvantages. RESULTS: Preliminary testing of prototypes systems shows that simple sensor systems are capable of acquiring adequate data for adult/child differentiation. The discussion addresses requirements for discriminator systems and the effects of various sensor combinations on overall performance.     

How mothers parent their children with behavior disorders: implications for unintentional injury risk

INTRODUCTION: This study was designed to test the role of parental supervision in explaining why children with behavior disorders have increased risk of unintentional injury. METHOD: Children referred to a pediatric behavior disorders clinic and their mothers were unknowingly observed in a "hazard room" environment that housed several items that appeared dangerous but actually were altered to be safe. RESULTS: Mother and child behavior in the hazard room was correlated to parent-, teacher-, and observational-reports of children's externalizing behavior patterns, children's injury history, and mother's parenting styles. Maternal ignoring of children's dangerous behavior in the hazard room was the strongest correlate to children's injury history. CONCLUSIONS: Poor parental supervision might serve as a mechanism to explain why children with behavior disorders, and those with oppositional behavior patterns in particular, have increased risk of unintentional injury.     

Attitude and behaviour of junior rugby union players towards tackling during training and match play

The tackle event in rugby, places both ball-carrier and tackler at a high risk of injury at all levels of play. To reduce this risk of injury, risk factors need to be identified. Attitude and behaviour have been identified as risk factors for injury in other sports, and probably also have a role in rugby. The purpose of this study was to assess the attitude and behaviour of players in training and match play with regards to safety and performance. A questionnaire was designed to assess attitude (importance) and behaviour (frequency and quantity) among junior (under 19) players on a 5-point Likert Scale. Questionnaires were handed out to 220 players (10 schools) at a tournament and 75% (9 schools, n = 164) were returned for analysis. During training and match play, players’ mean ratings were higher for improving performance than for injury prevention. However, a level of importance was evident for injury prevention. When executing a tackle the aim is to dominate the contact situation and prevent the ball-carrier from gaining territory and retaining the ball. Therefore, players, coaches and administrators need to find the most suitable balance between injury prevention and performance during training within their team setting. This process may be facilitated by modifying the current equipment and training drills used to train the tackle, and the time of season during which tackle technique training occurs. Equally important, players should learn proper tackle technique at a younger age, with the importance of safety emphasised from all information sources.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Epidemiology of alcohol and drug screening among pedestrian fatalities in the United States, 2014–2016

Objective: U.S. pedestrian fatalities increased by 25% between 2010 and 2015. Risk factors include distractions, the built environment, urbanization, economic variables, and weather conditions. Of interest is the role of alcohol and drugs in premature death among pedestrians. This study sought to explore the prevalence of substance use screenings among pedestrian fatalities in the United States between 2014 and 2016.

Methods: Data were collected from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System provided by the NHTSA. Pedestrian crash variables included demographics as well as information regarding alcohol or drug testing status. Frequency and cross-tabulation tables were constructed to assess the prevalence of screening by person, place, and time. Log-linear analyses were completed to explore age, race, and sex differences. A 3-year examination period was used to control for yearly fluctuations and to incorporate an increasing trend in cases.

Results: Pedestrian fatalities accounted for 84% of all deaths among vulnerable road users during the examination period. Those most at risk were white males between the ages of 45 and 64. Over all states, 74.7% of fatalities were tested for alcohol and 67.1% were tested for drugs; further, 66.5% of cases were tested for both alcohol and drugs and 24.8% were tested for neither substance. Cases screened for both alcohol and drugs ranged from 2.9% in North Carolina to 95.7% in Nevada and those testing for neither substance ranged from a high of 68.9% in Indiana to a low of 1.1% in Maryland. Log-linear regression revealed significant differences in alcohol screening by age and race but not by sex. Differences in drug screening were not identified for any demographic variable. Fatalities tested for alcohol were significantly more likely to be tested for drugs; only 8.2% were screened solely for alcohol and 0.05% were screened for drugs alone.

Conclusions: Preventive strategies become more important as pedestrian crashes and fatalities increase. Risk reduction in the form of policy change, alterations to the built environment, or interdisciplinary approaches to injury prevention is dependent upon best evidence supported in part by more deliberate and consistent screening.