Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Kenya

Abstract

To determine the climate changes that are due to natural variability and those due to human activities is quite challenging, just like delineating the impacts. Moreover, it is equally difficult to ascertain the adaptive strategies for coping with the climate changes and in particular for developing countries like Kenya. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are more or less specific to local areas such as observed in Kenyan case. Therefore climate change impacts adaptation strategies are appropriately applicable to a given local perspective. The study investigated the main indicators of climate change and effective adaptive strategies that can be employed in Kenya. Based on online questionnaire survey, the study established unpredictable rainfall patterns as the major indicator of climate change in the country, while water harvesting and change of cropping methods are the best adaptive strategies.     

Scientists' opinions on the global status and management of biological diversity

The large investments needed if loss of biological diversity is to be stemmed will likely lead to increased public and political scrutiny of conservation strategies and the science underlying them. It is therefore crucial to understand the degree of consensus or divergence among scientists on core scientific perceptions and strategies most likely to achieve given objectives. I developed an internet survey designed to elucidate the opinions of conservation scientists. Conservation scientists (n =583) were unanimous (99.5%) in their view that a serious loss of biological diversity is likely, very likely, or virtually certain. Scientists' agreement that serious loss is very likely or virtually certain ranged from 72.8% for Western Europe to 90.9% for Southeast Asia. Tropical coral ecosystems were perceived as the most seriously affected by loss of biological diversity; 88.0% of respondents familiar with that ecosystem type agreed that a serious loss is very likely or virtually certain. With regard to conservation strategies, scientists most often viewed understanding how people and nature interact in certain contexts and the role of biological diversity in maintaining ecosystem function as their priorities. Protection of biological diversity for its cultural and spiritual values and because of its usefulness to humans were low priorities, which suggests that many scientists do not fully support the utilitarian concept of ecosystem services. Many scientists expressed a willingness to consider conservation triage, engage in active conservation interventions, and consider reframing conservation goals and measures of success for conservation of biological diversity in an era of climate change. Although some heterogeneity of opinion is evident, results of the survey show a clear consensus within the scientific community on core issues of the extent and geographic scope of loss of biological diversity and on elements that may contribute to successful conservation strategies in the future.     

基于生态保护的道路规划策略

分析了路段与景观两个尺度上的道路生态环境影响,结合当今景观生态学、道路生态学的研究成果,系统论述了与道路交通规划建设相关的生态策略：（1）在区域尺度上,依据生态敏感度规划路网密度、保持大型自然空间的生态完整性、提倡非生态敏感地段的交通集中、增加路网的区域水平渗透性;（2）在路段规模上,自然空间的生境避让、保持重要地段的自然连续性、打破交通生态瓶颈、减少道路交通的环境影响、补偿道路建设的生态影响等。这些策略旨在为可持续道路交通提供基于生态合理性的规划原则与方法。     

Predicting the mating system from phenotypic correlations between life-history and sperm quality traits in the Alpine whitefish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Coregonus zugensis</Emphasis>

The mating behavior and reproductive strategies of Alpine whitefish like Coregonus zugensis (Nüsslin) are poorly understood, probably because they spawn in deep water where direct observations are difficult. In this study, we interpret life-history and sperm quality traits of fish that we caught from their spawning place. We found that males invest heavily into gonadal tissue (up to 5.6% of their body weight), which is, in comparison to other fish, consistent with external fertilization, distinct pairing and moderate to high communal spawning, or no pairing and low to moderate communal spawning. Sperm competition theory and recent experimental studies on other salmonids predict that males optimize ejaculate characteristics in relation to the costs of sperm and the level of competition they have to expect: dominant males are predicted to invest less into ejaculate quality and to have slower spermatozoa than subdominant males. We found that spermatozoa of older males are slower than those of younger males. Moreover, older males have larger breeding tubercles, a secondary sexual trait that has, in some previous studies, been found to be linked to good condition and to good genetic quality. Our results suggest that C. zugensis has age-linked reproductive strategies, that multimale spawning is common, i.e., that sperm competition plays a significant role, and that older males are on average dominant over younger males at the spawning place.     

主动为环境监督管理服务

分析了一些县级监测站存在的只注重监测数据,缺乏主动为环境管理服务的思想,介绍了海门市则站主动为环境管理及时提供的监测数据,促进了环境监督管理。     

中国内河船舶大气防污染对策及运力结构改善对沿岸港口大气环境质量的影响

针对IMO防止船舶大气污染的国际公约及中国内河船舶大气污染防治历史与现状，结合西部大开发及中国内河航运的发展规划，对内河船舶大气污染的防治对策、主任任务及措施实施后对沿线主要港口城市大气环境质量的影响进行了研究和探讨，在此基础上提出了中国内河船舶未来一段时期大气污染防治的根本思路与战略。     

“中国南方喀斯特”世界自然遗产申报战略研究

中国南方喀斯特地区面积大,自然资源丰富,生态环境脆弱,在世界喀斯特地区中极具代表性。文章依据中国南方喀斯特地区独特的自然特征和社会、经济功能,借助申报自然遗产机遇,为实现该区人口、资源、环境与社会的可持续发展,提出了一系列针对中国南方喀斯特地区的保护策略及措施。     

中国地震灾害防御对策的进展及今后的发展趋势

本文详细的论述了地震灾害效应,并给出了地震灾害防御对策的准确概念。在总结中国近二十年地震灾害防御对策的基础上,给出了今后我国地震灾害防御对策的发展趋势,对于我国今后开展震害防御工作具有一定意义。     

Integrating agricultural and forestry GHG mitigation response into general economy frameworks: Developing a family of response functions

An econometrically estimated family ofresponse functions is developed forcharacterizing potential responses togreenhouse gas mitigation policies by theagriculture and forestry sectors in theU.S. The response functions are estimatedbased on results of anagricultural/forestry sector model. Theyprovide estimates of sequestration andemission reductions in forestry andagriculture along with levels of sectoralproduction, prices, welfare, andenvironmental attributes given a carbonprice, levels of demand for agriculturalgoods, and the energy price. Sixalternative mitigation policiesrepresenting types of greenhouse gasoffsets allowed are considered. Resultsindicate that the largest quantity ofgreenhouse gas offset consistently appearswith the mitigation policy that pays forall opportunities. Restricting carbonpayments (emission tax or sequestrationsubsidy) only to aff/deforestation or onlyto agricultural sequestration substantiallyreduces potential mitigation. Highercarbon prices lead to more sequestration,less emissions, reduced consumer and totalwelfare, improved environmental indicatorsand increased producer welfare.     

A dynamic model of mating behavior in digger wasps: the energetics of male-male competition mimic size-dependent thermal constraints

I develop a state-based dynamic model of behavior to demonstrate that size-dependent differences in temperature tolerances are not necessary to account for the activity of small male digger wasps late in the day. In the model, males defend or patrol the nesting area, wait near nests, or feed away from the nesting area depending on time of day, energy reserves and size rank. I assume a large male competitive advantage, so mating opportunities decrease with size rank for territorial or patrolling males and are rare for all waiting males; the costs of patrolling or defense are higher than the costs of waiting. If energy reserves of all males are initially small, all males alternate feeding and territorial or patrolling behavior. If energy reserves are initially large, large males patrol or maintain territories until they risk starvation and leave the area to feed. At this time, smaller males that have conserved their resources by waiting and feeding may defend territories or patrol. I simulate the behavior of three populations representing two species of Microbembex by assuming large initial energy reserves for populations in which males were territorial and small initial reserves for populations in which males patrolled, and then convert the predicted time of activity to temperature using local regressions from field studies. Temporal patterns in the activity of large and small males were similar to those actually observed, and relationships between size and temperature predicted by the model corresponded to most observations and were sometimes positive. Thus, the delayed activity of smaller males does not correspond to activity at higher temperatures and is probably not attributable to size-dependent thermal tolerances, but may represent a temporal displacement of mating activity due to intra-sexual competition and mediated by energetics. The model makes testable predictions on the timing of feeding and depletion of energy reserves in relation to size and initial energy state, and suggests how differences among species may influence the temporal and spatial organization of male mating behavior. Received: 27 February 1997 / Accepted after revision: 26 July 1997