Quantitative Appraisement on Ecological Carrying Capacity in Coastal Rapid Developing Region of Hainan Province

The ecological carrying capacity, an important indicator to evaluate the sustainable development of the ecosystem, means the potential ability of the natural ecosystem to carry socioeconomic development while the ecosystem is healthy. It is limited by the carrying capacity of natural resources and environment and the elasticity of the ecosystem. It will be greatly significant to study the ecological carrying capacity of Hainan Province, the first ecological province admitted by the State Environmental Protection Administration in China. Not only is the natural ecosystem reflected, but also the effects of human activities are emphasized by integrating the ecosystem health analysis into the ecological carrying capacity research. The research results, using the Factor Analysis tools of software SPSS, indicate that the ecological carrying capacity of Hainan Province fluctuated obviously from 1996 to 2005. The level of the ecological carrying capacity of Hainan Province was relatively high in 1996, and reached into trough from 1997 to 1999. It has steadily ascended to be above the middle level since the 21st century. The results also show that policy factors, especially the implementation of the ＇Ecological Province＇ strategy, were important driving forces to influence the ecological carrying capacity. With the population rapidly increasing, the land and water resources per capita have decreased quickly. The amount of the ecological carrying capacity was promoted remarkably by socioeconomic development especially economic growth and technology applications. All of these will provide useful suggestions to establish and enact regional development policies, especially for protecting and reconstructing the ecology and environment of Hainan Province.     

江苏省耕地资源动态变化及驱动力研究

根据江苏省不同来源耕地数据差异,适当修正得到1949~2006年耕地数据序列,引入耕地变化率、耕地分布重心等指标,研究江苏省近60年来耕地资源动态变化的基本过程及其空间差异,然后运用相关分析和因子分析初步探讨了耕地数量变化的主要驱动力,并建立耕地数量变化的多元回归模型。研究表明,江苏省耕地面积经历了由增加→急剧减少→缓慢减少→快速减少的变化过程;苏北滨海平原区、中部里下河浅洼平原区及宁镇扬低山丘岗区耕地有所增加,而苏南长江三角洲平原区耕地则急剧减少,耕地重心呈现向后备资源丰富、人地矛盾较为缓和的地区移动的趋势;人口增长与农业科技进步、经济发展和农业结构调整是耕地面积变化的主要驱动因子;预测2020年江苏省耕地总量45449×104 hm2,人均耕地0053 hm2;要保护有限的耕地资源,江苏省必须转变土地利用方式,并实行严格的耕地保护政策。     

无锡市城市扩张的空间特征及驱动力分析

以无锡市1991、1996、2001和2005年的Landsat TM/ETM+影像为数据源,采用改进后的波段组合阈值提取法对无锡市城市建成区空间信息进行提取,并参照太湖流域土地利用分类图对提取的信息进行修正;通过影像叠加分析,研究 1991~2005年无锡市城市扩张的空间分布规律,认为无锡市城市总体扩张呈现出不断增加的态势,尤其是2000年以后,城市扩展出现快速发展。同时无锡市城市空间扩张呈现出不均匀性,主要包括集中连片发展和轴向扩展两种典型的扩展模式,而城市扩展方向主要集中在常州 无锡 苏州城市中心线沿线和环太湖方向,其中以东南部和东部扩展最为迅速;结合无锡市 1991~2005年社会经济以及人文数据,分析了人口及经济发展对城市扩张的影响,结果表明：人口的增加和城市的经济发展是影响无锡市城市扩展的两个重要因素。     

三峡库区生态经济区用地结构演变及驱动机制——以梁平县为例

根据1999～2007年土地利用统计、社会经济资料,借助信息熵原理及马尔科夫转移矩阵模型对梁平县土地利用结构动态演变进行了实例分析。结果表明,梁平县土地利用结构信息熵H经历了3个阶段：1999～2002年持续上升阶段、2002～2003年急速回落阶段及 2003～2007年波动阶段,土地利用结构无序程度发展态势不明显,均衡度变化与信息熵相似。用地类型主要由耕地转向林地、交通用地、居民点及工矿用地。定性分析了影响该县用地结构动态演变的政治经济政策,并利用主成分分析法对经济社会主要驱动因子进行了分析与探讨,得出影响该县用地结构动态演变的主要驱动力为：政治经济政策、经济发展。最后依据分析结果对梁平县未来发展做出定位：特色农业县--重点发展农林产品加工及文化生态旅游。     

Sandy desertification change and its driving forces in western Jilin Province, North China

This paper investigates the sandy desertification change between 1986 and 2000 in the western Jilin province, North China. Land use and land cover data were obtained from Landsat TM data by using a supervised classification approach. We summarized the total area of desertified land by each county, as well as the area for each of the four categories of desertified land. The changes of different types of land use and land cover between 1986 and 2000 were calculated and analyzed. Taking Tongyu and Qianan as examples, both human and natural driving forces of the sandy desertification were analyzed. Our analyses indicate that the material sources and windy, warm and dry climate are the immanent causes of potential land desertification, while the irrational human activities, such as deforestation, reclaiming and grazing in the grassland, are the external causes of potential land desertification. However, rational human activities, such as planting trees and restoring grassland can reverse the land desertification process. Furthermore, the countermeasures and suggestions for the sustainable development in ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry in North China are put forward.     

干旱灾害对江西省农业生产的影响及其对策

江西是农业大省,是国家重要的粮食主产区。近10 a来江西省干旱发生频繁,导致农业生产损失严重,威胁到农业的可持续发展。基于历史文献与资料,结合江西省农业厅的农业灾情调查数据和干旱指数最高的星子县、都昌县调研数据,着力分析近10 a来江西省的干旱状况及其对农作物生产的影响,探讨农业干旱灾害的成因。研究结果表明:江西干旱灾害以秋旱为主,近10 a年对江西的粮食和棉花生产造成重大损失,尤其是鄱阳湖区地区;江西农业干旱灾害的主要成因包括降水分布不均匀、红壤持水能力低、水利设施年久失修、植被结构破坏和易改变水文过程的大型水利设施建设。最后针对农业干旱灾害的主要成因,提出了减轻干旱灾害对农业生产不利影响的对策     

巢湖流域土地景观格局变化及生态风险驱动力研究

健康的流域生态系统是区域经济社会可持续发展的重要基础。探讨流域土地景观格局变化及生态风险驱动机制有助于生态系统状况诊断与风险来源认识,为有效制定生态风险管控措施提供决策依据。应用空间信息技术平台及计量分析方法,探讨了基于县域行政单元的快速城市化阶段巢湖流域土地景观格局变化及生态风险驱动力。研究表明:(1)2000~2013年,巢湖流域土地景观类型变化表现出农地、林地、水体景观面积下降,建设用地景观面积显著增加的趋势;流域景观水平上多样性和均匀度呈下降、优势度呈上升趋势,景观空间异质性下降;(2)近15 a来,巢湖流域9个行政单元内生态风险均呈上升趋势,生态风险整体恶化,需加强对流域生态风险上升的管控;(3)生态风险驱动力分析表明,快速城市化阶段巢湖流域生态风险的主要驱动因子为第二产业值、城市化率、人口密度和固定资产投资,而人均GDP的增加在一定程度上会降低生态风险水平。     

山东省耕地变化动态平衡研究

山东省耕地资源总量虽在近几年相对增加,但总体仍呈下降趋势,且人均耕地面积下降速度更快,耕地资源状况不容乐观。目前全省各地市耕地总量变化的动态平衡程度不一,德州市是耕地资源动态平衡相对最好的地市,其次为青岛、枣庄和泰安市,莱芜市耕地资源动态平衡状况较差。利用主成分分析方法的计算结果表明,经济活动、社会人口和农业科技发展水平等因素为影响山东省耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子;在以上研究的基础上,预测了山东省人口承载力和2010年粮食短缺情况。     

Agglomeration rate and action forces between atomized particles of agglomerator and inhaled-particles from coal combustion

In order to remove efficiently haled-particles emissions from coal combustions, a new way was used to put forward the process of agglomeration and the atomization was produced by the nozzle and then sprayed into the flue before precipitation devices of power station boiler in order to make inhaled-particles agglomerate into bigger particles, which can be easily removed but not change existing running conditions of boiler. According to this idea, a model is set up to study agglomeration rate and effect forces between fly ash inhaledparticles and atomized agglomerator particles. The developed agglomeration rate was expressed by relative particle number decreasing speed per unit volume. The result showed that viscosity force and flow resistance force give main influences on agglomeration effect of inhaledparticles, while springiness force and gravity have little effect on agglomeration effect of theirs. Factors influencing the agglomeration rate and effect forces are studied, including agglomerator concentration, agglomerator flux and agglomerator density, atomized-particles diameters and inhaled-particles diameter and so on.     

水质条件对膜-羧基官能团之间微观作用力的影响特征

为了探讨pH值、离子强度及膜材料对膜-污染物间相互作用力的影响特征,利用自制的典型膜污染物羧基官能团胶体探针,结合原子力显微镜定量考察了羧基官能团与PVDF及EVOH超滤膜间的相互作用力随pH值及离子强度的变化特征.结果表明:带有羧基基体的污染物与PVDF及EVOH超滤膜之间的相互作用力皆随着pH值的增大而减小;但是上述作用力随着离子强度的增加呈现特殊的变化趋势:在离子强度为0~10mmol/L时,膜-带有羧基基体的污染物之间相互作用力随着离子强度的增加而增大;在离子强度为10~500mmol/L时,膜-羧基之间相互作用力随着离子强度的增大而减小.在特定的水质条件下,EVOH-羧基间的作用力远小于PVDF-羧基之间的作用力.