公路隧道水害倾向性分级的Bayes判别法及应用

为提高公路隧道整体安全性能,保障人员安全,减少财产损失,避免公路隧道水害事故的发生,将Bayes判别理论应用于公路隧道水害倾向性判别和分级中。采用影响隧道水害发生的隧道区渗透系数、降水情况、单位涌水量、构造断裂带类型、围岩分级、隧道施工情况、防排水措施情况等7项指标作为基本判别因子;将公路隧道水害倾向性分为4个等级作为Bayes判别分析的4个正态总体。以采自典型的20组公路隧道的实测数据为训练样本,建立公路隧道水害倾向性分级的Bayes判别函数。对训练后的模型运用交叉确认估计法进行验证,然后运用该模型对6条待检验的公路隧道样本的水害倾向性进行分级。研究结果表明:构建的Bayes判别分析模型误判率极低,分级效果合理有效,可以运用于公路隧道水害倾向性的分级中,有利于公路隧道水害的预防和治理。     

热力管加热桥面抗冰融冰试验研究

为了研究热力管加热桥面抗冰融冰对于公路交通安全的影响,制作了尺寸为600 mm×600 mm×380 mm的桥梁试件,在人工环境室对热力管融冰进行了模型试验。结果表明:试件上表面温升速率和融冰时间取决于热力管间距、隔热层、风速、环境温度和热力管外表面温度。在相同工况条件下,100 mm间距的热力管融冰能力要大于150 mm间距的热力管,无隔热层时,100 mm间距热力管向上传递的热量占总加热量的13.4%,融冰时间为211 min;150 mm间距热力管向上传递的热量占总加热量的18.3%,融冰时间为271 min。在热力管层下面铺设厚度为2 mm、导热系数为0.062 W/（m· K）的隔热材料后,100 mm间距热力管向上传递的热量占总加热量的46.9%,融冰时间为175 min;150 mm间距热力管向上传递的热量占总加热量的51.9%,融冰时间为161 min。热力管层铺设隔热材料可有效阻止热量向下传递,从而缩短融冰时间。     

离子交换膜应用于光/电/化学协同催化反应器

在光/电/化学协同催化反应器中,以离子交换膜代替盐桥连通阴、阳两室,以30 mg/L的甲基红溶液为目标降解物,考察了不同连通方式、初始pH和阴极电位对反应的影响. 结果表明:甲基红在阳离子膜型反应器中的表观反应速率常数明显高于盐桥型及阴离子交换膜型反应器,这是由于阳离子交换膜可以及时有效地将阳极室中产生的H+转移至阴极室中参与阴极反应. 甲基红在阳离子膜型反应器中的去除率随溶液初始pH的增高而降低,随阴极电位的增加先增大后减小,最佳反应条件为pH=2.0～3.0,阴极电位(-E_c)=0.6 V.      

Modeling high-frequency position data of large herbivores with a phase-state model

Understanding the rules and factors that drive the foraging behavior of large herbivores is important to describe their interaction with the landscape at various spatial scales. Some unresolved questions refer to landscape-behavioral interactions that result in oriented or random search in seasonally changing landscapes. Remotely sensed position data indicate that herbivores select local patches of heterogeneous landscapes depending on a complex host of dynamically varying animal and environmental conditions. Since foraging paths consist in successions of relatively short steps, increasing the frequency at which position information is acquired would contribute to entangle the mechanisms resulting in herbivores’ foraging paths. We addressed the question whether herbivores would obtain information at a patch scale that would modify their distribution at a landscape scale based on directed movement or navigation ability. We considered a set of 100,000 high-frequency (1 min intervals) position data of several free-ranging sheep (Ovis aries) at a seasonal-varying range (Patagonian Monte, Argentina) and observed their movements at landscape and at single vegetation patch scales. At a landscape scale, we inspected the spatial co-variation of seasonally varying forage offer and ewes’ movement speeds. At a patch scale, we developed a phase-state (P-S) model of movement cycles based on the occurrence of behavioral phases along foraging paths, and fitted it to the observed daily time series of ewes’ movement speeds. Ewes were preferentially distributed in areas with high forage offer during periods of low forage availability and the reverse occurred during the season of high forage availability. Parameters of the model of activity cycles amenable to control by ewes (duration of speed phases, time elapsed between speed cycles) did not covariate with forage offer, but varied significantly among ewes. The shape (kurtosis) parameter of the model of movement cycles, one which is unlikely under ewes’ control, co-varied significantly with spatial forage offer but did not differ among ewes. We conclude that ewes allocated foraging time along a series of similar movement efforts irrespective of forage availability at small patches. Average forage scarcity at multi-patch level increases the ratio of searching to feeding time. This results in apparent selective time allocation to richer forage areas but does not imply evidence for oriented movement at a landscape scale. We advance a behavioral-based definition of forage patches and discuss its implications in developing foraging theory and models. The P-S model applied to high-frequency position data of large herbivores substantially improves the interpretation of the factors controlling their time allocation in space with respect to previous models of herbivore spatial behavior by discriminating among behavioral-based and environmentally induced components of their movements.     

旅游公路景观协调性评价指标权重模型研究

为评价旅游公路景观协调性,通过对影响旅游公路景观协调性因素的分析,采用目标分解法初选评价指标,确定公路景观与交通安全、景观与视觉、景观与生态环境协调性3个目标层。在此基础上采用德尔菲法建立景观协调性评价指标体系;将景观协调性指标权重分为价值量权重和信息量权重2部分,在序关系分析法基础上充分利用指标值信息,综合主、客观赋权法,建立旅游公路景观协调性评价指标组合权重模型。结果表明:该模型可客观有效地确定各评价指标的权重。     

A Bayesian assessment of the effect of highway bypasses in Iowa on crashes and crash rate

Introduction

A common contention is that the construction of highway bypasses negatively impacts the economy of local communities by reducing pass-by traffic for businesses. However, as access to specific business' account records is limited, this impact is difficult to quantify. Another common contention is that bypasses contribute to a reduction in overall crashes in the community and in the surrounding areas. Even though a large number of bypasses have been constructed in the State of Iowa over the past several years, their actual impact in terms of traffic safety has not been quantified.

Objectives

This study seeks answers to the following questions: (a) Are bypasses in Iowa associated with a reduction in crash frequencies and crash rates on the bypassed highway? (b) Do bypasses in Iowa introduce a reduction of overall crash frequencies and rates or do they merely shift crashes from the highways through the communities to the bypasses with no significant overall reduction?

Method

We obtained crash information from the Iowa DOT at 19 sites on which a bypass was constructed sometime during the past 23 years. We also obtained the same information at six sites used as comparison sites on which no bypasses were constructed at least until 2005. We them employed a Bayesian approach to estimating the association between the construction of the bypass and crash rates, while also accounting for other factors.

Results

The construction of bypasses in Iowa is associated with a significant increase in traffic safety both on the main road through town and on the combined main road and bypass roadway.     

Random parameter models for accident prediction on two-lane undivided highways in India

Introduction

Generalized linear modeling (GLM), with the assumption of Poisson or negative binomial error structure, has been widely employed in road accident modeling. A number of explanatory variables related to traffic, road geometry, and environment that contribute to accident occurrence have been identified and accident prediction models have been proposed. The accident prediction models reported in literature largely employ the fixed parameter modeling approach, where the magnitude of influence of an explanatory variable is considered to be fixed for any observation in the population. Similar models have been proposed for Indian highways too, which include additional variables representing traffic composition. The mixed traffic on Indian highways comes with a lot of variability within, ranging from difference in vehicle types to variability in driver behavior. This could result in variability in the effect of explanatory variables on accidents across locations. Random parameter models, which can capture some of such variability, are expected to be more appropriate for the Indian situation.

Method

The present study is an attempt to employ random parameter modeling for accident prediction on two-lane undivided rural highways in India. Three years of accident history, from nearly 200 km of highway segments, is used to calibrate and validate the models.

Results

The results of the analysis suggest that the model coefficients for traffic volume, proportion of cars, motorized two-wheelers and trucks in traffic, and driveway density and horizontal and vertical curvatures are randomly distributed across locations.

Conclusions

The paper is concluded with a discussion on modeling results and the limitations of the present study.     

Numerical simulation of propane detonation in medium and large scale geometries

A modelling strategy has been developed for consequence analysis of medium and large scale gaseous detonation. The model is based on the solution of Euler equations with one-step chemistry. The Van Leer flux limited method which is a total variation diminishing scheme is used for shock capturing. Preliminary calculations were firstly conducted for small domains with fine grids which resolve the wave, relatively coarse grids which have less than 10 grids across the wave and coarse grids in which the minimum grid size is larger than the wave thickness to ensure that the reaction scheme has been properly tuned to capture the correct detonation pressure, temperature and velocity in the resolutions used in the different cases. The model was firstly tested against a medium scale detonation test in a shock tube with U-bends. Reasonably good agreement is achieved on detonation pressure and mean shock wave velocities at different measuring segments of the tube. Following the validation, the detonation of a hypothetical planar propane-air cloud is simulated. The predictions uncovered some interesting features of such large scale detonation phenomena which are of significance in the safety context, especially for accidental investigations. The findings from the present analysis are in line with the forensic evidence on damages in some historic accidents and challenges previous analysis of a major accident in which forensic evidence suggested localised detonation but was considered as the consequence of fire storms by the investigation team.     

省内公路可移动危险源的模糊综合安全预警

为了对公路可移动危险源进行有效控制,分析了影响公路可移动危险源危险程度的因素,采用模糊综合评判方法,并通过公路可移动危险源模糊预警系统实现了公路可移动危险源的实时综合安全预警.结果表明,此方法考虑危险因素较全面,且可在屏幕实时显示各公路可移动危险源的预警结果,有利于提高安全管理水平.     

广三高速公路扩建工程中桩承式加筋路堤的现场试验

结合广三高速公路扩建工程,对素混凝土桩和PHC管桩桩承式加筋路堤工作性状开展现场试验调查,在路堤填筑中以及填筑完成后对路基沉降、孔隙水压力以及深部水平位移进行监测和分析,试验结果表明:当软土厚度小于18m时,采用桩径为50cm的C15素混凝土桩,打穿软土层,桩中心间距1.8 -2.0m,平面呈三角形布置,桩帽采用C30混凝土浇筑成尺寸为1m×1m×0.4m的面板,拓宽路基孔隙水压力变化与填土高度和桩的龄期有关,路基工后沉降得到了有效控制;当软土厚度超过18m时,采用桩径为30cm,桩壁厚7cm的PHC管桩,按照桩中心间距2.5-3.0m间距呈正方形布置,桩帽采用设置双层钢筋的C30混凝土浇筑成尺寸为1.5m×1.5m ×0.4m的面板,路堤填筑完成后预压期内路基孔隙水压力基本未发生变化,路基几乎未发生侧向位移,路基剩余沉降很小,可以节省预压时间,尽早开展路面结构层施工,开放交通.