基于SIL评估的LNG加气站安全仪表系统问题分析及改进建议*

为分析LNG加气站安全仪表系统的功能完备性与可靠性,以3座典型的三级LNG加气站为研究对象,全面开展安全仪表功能辨识、安全完整性等级（SIL）定级与验证,进而提出针对性的改进建议。结果表明:3座LNG加气站的安全仪表系统均存在功能不完备、设备组件缺少失效数据的问题;为满足风险控制要求,三级LNG加气站需设置15个安全仪表功能,其中1个应达到SIL2等级,14个应达到SIL1等级;LNG加气站的安全仪表系统应选用获得功能安全认证的设备组件,并在设计阶段开展SIL评估工作。研究结果可为今后LNG加气站安全仪表系统的设计与管理提供重要参考。     

三峡库区虫媒和自然疫源性疾病分析

为了解三峡库区人群近7年来主要虫媒和自然疫源性疾病的发病水平和流行趋势,在选出的15个三峡库区人群健康监测点,按照《三峡库区疾病监测方案》,每月收集传染病发病资料及鼠、蚊类等媒介生物监测资料。结合全国传染病疫情报告系统的有关发病资料,分别进行不同年份、不同地区和不同季节发病趋势的比较和影响因素分析。连续7年的监测结果显示,甲类传染病鼠疫未发生,流行性出血热、钩端螺旋体病、流行性乙型脑炎、疟疾等以病媒生物传播为主要传播途径的虫媒和自然疫源性疾病累计报告病例157例,其总体发病呈下降趋势。疟疾、出血热发病水平明显低于全国,而钩体病和乙脑发病水平则高于全国,除疟疾外的其余3种疾病均伴有小的发病高峰出现,但仍以散发为主。表明这些与环境变化关系较为密切的虫媒和自然疫源性疾病的发生,随着工程施工、移民新址建设和移民搬迁并未发生明显变化。但由于环境因素影响的长期性、复杂性,仍需长期连续地开展监测,密切关注发病趋势的变化。     

Making a significant difference with burnout interventions: Researcher and practitioner collaboration

Burnout research over the past 30 years has yielded both knowledge and tools to apply to interventions at unit and organizational levels. Examples of innovative partnerships between researchers and practitioners point to the importance of multi‐level approaches in generating relevant and effective solutions to the burnout problem. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于熵权物元可拓模型的隧道瓦斯等级评价

为准确预测穿越煤层的隧道瓦斯等级,以有助于降低隧道施工过程中瓦斯事故的风险。通过分析国内外大量瓦斯隧道工程案例,选取地层岩性、地质构造、煤层厚度、隧道埋深、水文地质条件等5个分级指标作为隧道瓦斯等级评价指标,将熵权法引入可拓学理论中,建立熵权物元可拓模型,并应用该模型对10条穿越煤层的隧道进行瓦斯等级评价。结果表明:应用该模型得到的隧道瓦斯等级与其实际等级完全吻合,准确率达到100%。     

呼吸器标准中的泄漏率与实验室呼吸防护水平

结合国内外呼吸器最新标准中有关泄漏率与实验室呼吸防护水平的测试条件和方法,从基本概念和评价方法入手对比剖析了不同标准之间内容的差异.文中涉及的国内外标准主要有美国职业安全与健康研究所指定的系列化生放核呼吸器标准、欧洲EN 13274 - 1:2001、日本JIST8159:2006、中国GB 2626 - 2006和GB 2890 - 2009以及ISO/DIN 16900-1.2草案.通过对比分析不同标准之间在评价方法中采用的气溶胶种类、受试者人数、模拟动作种类及持续时间、采样方法、测试结果评价方法等具体内容,指出了我国呼吸器标准中泄漏率测试方法及相关标准发展中应注意的问题.     

中国煤矿员工文化程度及对安全的影响分析

我国煤矿员工文化程度低一直被看作是煤炭企业的安全生产的重要制约因素之一,而把事故归咎于矿工的文化水平也引起了广泛争议。本文通过广泛收集国内外相关文献信息,将我国煤矿员工与美国、加拿大和南非的煤矿员工及国内其他行业的员工文化程度进行对比,发现我国煤矿员工平均收教育年限较国外少3.3年,与国内其他高危行业持平,但低于全国劳动力平均受教育水平。在现场调研数据的基础上,分析了员工文化程度对安全生产的影响情况,发现煤矿员工的文化程度与企业总体安全文化水平呈正相关关系,而且文化程度与煤矿的安全生产状况互为因果。     

加强安全生产基层基础工作的调查与思考

本文从安全生产基层基础工作入手,以湖北省为例,从安全监管机构设置不规范不健全、基层安全监管力量十分薄弱、安全投入和监管装备严重不足、基层安全监管队伍不稳定、安全生产政策法规体系不完善、安全生产工作机制不健全等六个方面分析了安全生产基层基础建设存在的突出问题。在此基础上,提出了实施"三三五五四"工程的建议,即:全面落实三个责任(企业主体责任、党委政府组织领导责任、相关部门职责);大力加强三项基本建设(基层安全监管机构建设、安全监管执法人员能力建设、安全监管基础设施及基本装备建设);进一步夯实五个基础(安全生产源头监管、企业安全生产标准化建设、安全生产隐患排查治理、职业病危害防治、基层安全生产网格化管理工程);建立健全五项激励约束机制(企业安全生产信用挂钩联动机制、安全生产激励机制、安全监管执法岗位特殊津贴制度、企业安全生产绩效工资制度、安全生产行政问责制);建立健全四个保障体系(投入保障体系、法制保障体系、宣教保障体系、科技支撑体系)。     

Temporal trends in agricultural water use and the relationships to hydroclimatic factors in the High Plains aquifer region

The High Plains aquifer (HPA) is the primary water source for agricultural irrigation in the US Great Plains. The water levels in many locations of the aquifer have declined steadily over the past several decades because the rate of water withdrawals exceeds recharge, which has been a serious concern to the water resources management in the region. We evaluated temporal trends and variations in agricultural water use and hydroclimatic variables including precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration, runoff, groundwater level, and terrestrial water storage across the HPA region for different periods from 1985 to 2020 at the grid, county, or region scale. The results showed that water withdrawals decreased from 21.3 km³/year in 1985 to 18.2 km³/year in 2015, while irrigated croplands increased from 71,928 km² in 1985 to 78,464 km² in 2015 in the entire HPA. The hydroclimatic time-series showed wetting trends in most of the northern HPA, but drying and warming trends in the southern region from 1985 to 2020. The groundwater level time-series indicated flat trends in the north, but significant declining in the central and southern HPA. Trends in irrigation water withdrawals and irrigation area across the HPA were controlled by the advancement of irrigation systems and technologies and the management of sustainable water use, but also were affected by dynamical changes in the hydroclimatic conditions.     

Learning and climate feedbacks: Optimal climate insurance and fat tails

We study the effect of potentially severe climate change on optimal climate change policy, accounting for learning and uncertainty in the climate system. In particular, we test how fat upper tailed uncertainty over the temperature change from a doubling of greenhouse gases (the climate sensitivity), affects economic growth and emissions policy. In addition, we examine whether and how fast uncertainties could be diminished through Bayesian learning. Our results indicate that while overall learning is slow, the mass of the fat tail diminishes quickly, since observations near the mean provide evidence against fat tails. We denote as “tail learning” the case where the planner rejects high values of the climate sensitivity with high confidence, even though significant uncertainty remains. Fat tailed uncertainty without learning reduces current emissions by 38% relative to certainty, indicating significant climate insurance, or paying to limit emissions today to reduce the risk of very high temperature changes, is optimal. However, learning reduces climate insurance by about 50%. The optimal abatement policy is strongly influenced by the current state of knowledge, even though greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are difficult to reverse. Once the mass of the fat tail diminishes, the remaining uncertainty is largely irrelevant for optimal emissions policy.     

Effect of admixture of solid inertant on fire hazard of dust layers oriented at varying degrees of inclination

Unlike metallic dust layers, the layer flammability levels (LFL) of non-metallic dust layers exhibit a wide range from Class 1 (No self-sustained combustion) to Class 6 (explosive combustion). However, determinations of layer flammability have not considered the effect of inclination angle, thereby potentially underestimating fire hazard of combustible dust layers in many industrial situations. In this research, inclined dust layers showed greater fire hazard than did horizontally oriented dust layers. For example, LFL of wood dust jumped from class 3 to class 5 when layers were positioned with an incline. Flame spread rate of PMMA dust layers increased from 1.8 to 3.6 mm/s when the angle of inclination increased from 0 to 40°. Even small amounts of solid inertant significantly decreased surface layer fires. The required amount of inertant to completely inert layer fires was far less than that for smoldering layer fires or dust explosions.