Confidence-based quantitative risk analysis for offshore accidental hydrocarbon release events

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) has been widely used to conduct the assessment of offshore accidental risks. However, the accuracy and validity of QRA is significantly affected by uncertainties when subjective judgments are involved. Therefore, it is unrealistic to determine the probability of a hazardous event by using one single explicit value when safety experts have a relatively low confidence level in their judgments. This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties into conventional QRA using the concept of confidence level. Offshore hydrocarbon release hazards are focused on and a barrier and operational risk analysis (BORA-Release) method is selected as the basic model to illustrate the proposed methodology. A left–right (L–R) bell-shaped fuzzy number is employed and its membership curve is able to control its shape to represent different confidence levels. As to the complex geometry of the bell-shaped fuzzy number, an α-cut operation is introduced to conduct the arithmetic operations of the fuzzy number, and a defuzzification method with total integral value is chosen to match the α-cut operations and acquire complete information for the fuzzy numbers. In the meantime, an optimism index is used to describe the attitude of the decision-maker. One case study is provided in this paper to demonstrate the implementation of this method.     

天空蓝色饱和程度与城市空气质量等级的相关性

以大气散射理论为基础,结合颜色学、大气环境监测及城市空气质量日报等相关原理,从理论分析与实证研究2个方面证实了天空蓝色饱和程度与城市空气质量等级之间存在着显著的负相关性,即:天空蓝色饱和程度越低,空气污染等级越高,空气质量状况越差;天空蓝色饱和程度越高,空气污染等级较低,空气质量状况越好;通过相关及回归分析与检验,制得“城市空气质量等级目测色卡”,适用于晴朗天气肉眼观察天空颜色,进而目测估计空气质量等级状况,以采取必要防护措施。     

Morphologic development, relative sea level rise and sustainable management of water and sediment in the Ebre Delta, Spain

The Ebre (Ebro) Delta is one of the most important wetland areas in the western Mediterranean. Ca. 40 % of the delta plain is less than 0.5 m above mean sea level and part of the southern margin of the delta is at mean sea level in an area protected by dikes. Both mean rates of secular subsidence in the Ebre Delta and eustatic sea level rise are ca. 1 – 2 mm/yr. Thus, the present annual relative sea level rise (RSLR) rate in the Ebre Delta may be at least 3 mm/yr. Measured accretion rates in the delta range from 4 mm/yr in the wetlands surrounding the river mouth to <0.1 mm/yr in impounded salt marshes and rice fields. The annual sediment deficit in the delta plain to offset RSLR is close to 1 million m³/yr. Accretion rates in the rice fields prior to the construction of large dams in the Ebre watershed were higher than RSLR rates, from 3 – 15 mm/yr. At present, >99 % of the riverine sediments are retained in the reservoirs and rice fields are losing ca. 0.2 mm/yr. Future management plans should take RSLR into account and include control of freshwater and sediment flows from the river in order to offset negative effects from waterlogging and salt intrusion, and maintain land elevation. This will include the partial removal of sediments trapped behind the Ribarroja and Mequinença dams. Stocks and inputs of sediments in the corresponding reservoirs are large enough for land elevation of ca. 50 cm in the whole delta plain. Advantages of this solution include (1) new sediments to the delta to offset subsidence (via rice fields) and coastal retreat, (2) enhanced functioning of the delta (productivity and nutrient processing), (3) avoidance of accumulation of sediments in the reservoirs. Hence, it is important to manage river discharges at the dams from an integrated viewpoint, whereas currently only hydropower and agricultural requirements are considered. It is also crucial to maintain periods of high discharge, to have enough river energy to transport as much sediments as possible.     

Is helping a beneficial learning experience for red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) helpers?

Several hypotheses have been suggested to explain the evolution and maintenance of helping behavior in cooperatively breeding birds, one of which we investigated in the red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis). Helping may provide a learning experience that improves reproductive success once the helper becomes a breeder. We used data collected from a population of red-cockaded woodpeckers in the Sandhills of North Carolina to compare the reproductive success of 2-year-old breeders that were helpers at age 1 (helping experience) to those that were floaters or solitary males at age 1 (no helping experience). Reproductive success of the two groups was similar, indicating that helping provides no experience useful in reproduction. We reject the learning experience hypothesis as an explanation for the maintenance of helping behavior in red-cockaded woodpeckers. Received: 29 July 1996 / Accepted after revision: 27 April 1997     

No cultural transmission of species recognition between parents and offspring in free-living great tits and blue tits

Imprinting plays a key role in the development of species recognition, with young imprinting upon the morphological characters of their parents. However, the potential role that cultural transmission might play in species recognition remains largely uninvestigated. Great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) do not normally perceive each other as sexual competitors or potential partners. However, after reciprocal interspecific cross-fostering, both species may perceive individuals of the foster species as potential rivals or mates. Although the experience of being raised by heterospecifics clearly has affected the species recognition of cross-fostered birds, some of them breed naturally with conspecifics. The offspring of such cross-fostered birds (OCF) are hence raised by parents that look like ordinary conspecifics but display deviant species recognition as compared to controls in terms of aggressive response towards rivals. Comparing the aggressive behavior of OCF, cross-fostered birds and controls towards territorial intruders may thus help tease apart the influence of morphological vs behavioral cues of parents in the development of offspring species recognition. To this end, we compared birds from all three treatments with respect to their aggressive response to territorial intruders of both species during the breeding season. OCF and controls did not differ in their pattern of response towards heterospecific and conspecific stimuli. Compared to cross-fostered birds, OCF and controls showed less aggression towards heterospecific intruders, while the response towards conspecific intruders did not differ between treatments. These results demonstrate that both tit species imprint on the morphological characters of their parents, but that parental behavior is not important for the development of species recognition in terms of aggressive response towards territorial intruders.     

Heritable variation in learning performance affects foraging preferences in the honey bee (Apis mellifera)

There has now been an abundance of research conducted to explore genetic bases that underlie learning performance in the honey bee (Apis mellifera). This work has progressed to the point where studies now seek to relate genetic traits that underlie learning ability to learning in field-based foraging problems faced by workers. Accordingly, the focus of our research is to explore the correlation between laboratory-based performance using an established learning paradigm and field-based foraging behavior. To evaluate learning ability, selected lines were established by evaluating queens and drones in a proboscis extension reflex (PER) conditioning procedure to measure learning in a laboratory paradigm—latent inhibition (LI). Hybrid queens were then produced from our lines selected for high and low levels of LI and inseminated with semen from many drones chosen at random. The genetically diverse worker progeny were then evaluated for expression of LI and for preference of pollen and/or nectar during foraging. Foragers from several different queens, and which had resulted from fertilization by any of several different drone fathers, were collected as they returned from foraging flights and analyzed for pollen and nectar contents. They were subsequently evaluated for expression of LI. Our research revealed that pollen foragers exhibited stronger learning, both in the presence (excitatory conditioning) and absence (LI) of reinforcement. The heightened overall learning ability demonstrated by pollen foragers suggests that pollen foragers are in general more sensitive to a large number of environmental stimuli. This mechanism could contribute toward explanations of colony-level regulation of foraging patterns among workers.Communicated by R. Page     

某矿区老硐口毁闭爆破空气冲击波效应的评价

本文就某金矿区在对非法开采的平硐进行毁闭爆破时产生的空气冲击波的效应进行了分析评价,指出空气冲击波对附近村庄民房不构成破坏,只是由于强烈的爆破噪音给人以恐怖感,干扰了附近居民宁静正常的生活和生产。     

乌江流域县域社会经济发展的综合评价与分析

在简要阐述了县域社会经济发展综合评价原则的基础上,建立了悬域社会经济发展综合评价的指标体系,利用层次分析法确定了各评价因子的权重。接着以乌江流域为例,对流域内４０个县域的社会经济发展水平进行了定量评价,指出了流域内县域社会经济发展中存在的问题,并提出了相应的对策,旨在为促进乌江流域的县域社会经济协调发展提供某些科学依据。     

连云港海平面变化与地震相关性的探讨

为探索海平面变化与地震相关的前兆信息,利用了连云港验潮站长达４３年的验潮资料。结合华北地区４次７级以上强震和江苏及其以东黄海海域１８次中强以上地震的震例分析后认为：经基本消除主要干扰因素的连云港平均海平面变化,表征了与地震有关的地壳形变信息。它对监测华北地区强震和江苏及邻近地区的中强震,具有一定的参考价值。     

成都市大气降尘放射性水平分析

本文介绍了成都市大气降尘放射性水平的监测结果。发现降尘中除有少量天然核素外,还尚存有以往大气层核试验释放的裂变核素９０Ｓｒ和１３７Ｃｓ。平均年沉降量９０Ｓｒ为１０２Ｂｑ·ｍ－２·Ｙ－１,１３７Ｃｓ为１３１Ｂｑ·ｍ－２·Ｙ－１。由大气９０Ｓｒ和１３７Ｃｓ沉降所致公众辐射剂量为１６８μＳｒ·ａ－１,是限值的２‰。所以,降尘中放射性造成的辐射影响是很小的。