全球跨境水资源合作时空演变及生成机制

跨境水资源合作对人类社会的可持续发展和国家水权益保障意义重大。以166个国家为研究样本,选择1948—2008年全球跨境水资源合作事件为基础数据,提取合作关系并构建全球跨境水资源合作网络。基于社会网络分析、层次分析等方法,探讨了跨境水合作事件及其网络的时空复杂性,阐述了跨境水合作生成机制与合作类型。研究发现：水合作事件数量与频次呈波动增长,阶段特征显著;水合作网络结构的去中心化、多极化和区域化趋势明显,东西方阵营在冷战时代主导了全球水合作,后冷战时代的热点合作广泛产生在非洲、东欧地区和亚洲水塔周边地区;水合作对地理距离表现为高敏感性,同一流域内国家互动频繁,域外大国在不同时期介入热点流域水合作事务;国家行为体、区域合作关系和国际合作体系三个层次综合影响水合作关系的生成,各层次内部有着复杂的多因素互动,强制型、功利型、规范型和意识形态型水合作是四种主要跨境水合作类型。     

中国典型湖泊四大类抗生素污染特征

基于已有文献资料数据,以中国东部平原湖区（31个）,蒙新湖区（4个）,二龙湖,青海湖及抚仙湖共38个典型湖泊为研究对象,总结分析四大类常用抗生素（四环素类,磺胺类,喹诺酮类和大环内酯类）在湖泊水体和沉积物中的污染特征.结果表明,四大类抗生素污染在中国典型湖泊中普遍存在,其中水体中抗生素污染水平依次为磺胺类（2147ng/L） > 喹诺酮类（1458ng/L） > 四环素类（481ng/L） > 大环内酯类（205ng/L）,沉积物中抗生素的分布具有垂向差异特征,表层沉积物抗生素浓度高于深层沉积物.抗生素检出浓度在不同湖区间存在较大差异,其中东部平原湖区水体和沉积物中抗生素浓度显著高于其他湖区.相比入湖河流,湖区（如太湖贡湖湾和青海湖）水体中抗生素污染相对较高,表明湖区可能作为抗生素的汇集地.湖泊水体中的抗生素浓度分布呈现季节性差异,如太湖水体中抗生素浓度在春,夏及冬季高于秋季,而鄱阳湖,白洋淀和二龙湖在旱季（4月）高于雨季（8月）;而湖泊沉积物中抗生素季节性差异较不明显,这可能与抗生素在沉积物中的迁移性有关.     

大尺度生态干扰风险评估技术方法及应用研究

为实现大尺度生态干扰高风险区域的快速、有效识别,从生态易损性、干扰易达性和资源易引性三个方面选取了9个指标,构建了生态干扰风险评估指标体系和评估模型,形成了完整的大尺度生态干扰评估技术与方法.利用该技术方法,本文评估分析了全国国土空间生态干扰风险状况、空间分布格局及其成因,并结合2017~2019年全国自然保护区人类活动监测数据和《全国主体功能区规划》中生态脆弱性评价结果对生态干扰风险评估结果进行了精度分析.结果显示：超过90%的自然保护区人类活动都集中在评估得到的中高风险区域;全国生态干扰风险主要以中风险为主、低风险次之、再次是较低风险、较高和高风险区域面积最少;其中较高和高风险区域主要分布在我国中西部和东北部的秦岭、祁连山、三江源和内蒙古草原等区域,生态干扰风险空间分布格局与生态系统结构与功能状况、地形与交通条件、资源潜力等因素具有较强相关性.     

城市地震防御能力评价和防御水准问题

本文研究了下列两个问题：（１）城市防御地震能力的评价标准和评价方法;（２）考虑了经济投入和人身安全,确定新建建筑设防水准的合理方法。     

江苏沿海地区的相对海平面上升及其灾害性影响研究

江苏海岸是全国潮滩最集中分布区，其面积约占全国的１／４，沿海地区地势低平，相对海平面上升幅度较大，是全国少数几个受海平面上升危害最严重的地区之一。初步估算，２１世纪前半期该地区不同岸段相对海平面上升速率将可能达到４．５～９．５ｍｍ／ａ，约为同期全球平均上升速率的２～３倍。其灾害性影响主要集中在：①造成堤外潮滩湿地资源损失，相对海平面上升５０ｃｍ，因直接淹没、侵蚀加剧和淤涨减缓造成的潮滩损失面积将超过５×１０４ｈｍ２，湿地损失面积达２．４×１０４ｈｍ２；②降低海堤防御标准、危及海堤自身和受保护地区安全，相对海平面上升５０ｃｍ，该地区现有海堤防御标准将由现状５０～１００年一遇降为２０～５０年一遇；遇５０年一遇风暴高潮位，全区受潮水漫溢的海堤长度将比现状增加１７３ｋｍ以上，占海堤总长的１／４；③阻碍低洼地的洪水排泄、加剧洪涝灾害损失，相对海平面上升４０ｃｍ，苏北里下河和苏南太湖湖东两片洼地的自然排水能力将可能分别下降约２５％和２０％，若两洼地分别重现１９９１年型和１９５４年型洪水，则因海平面上升增加的受淹面积将超过４×１０４ｈｍ２     

崇明东滩大型底栖动物食源的稳定同位素示踪

利用稳定同位素示踪技术,对崇明东滩盐沼湿地夏季不同生境大型底栖动物的食物来源和营养结构进行了初步研究。结果显示,表层沉积有机质稳定碳、氮同位素组成分别在-21.3‰~-24.2‰、4.6‰~5.6‰,不同生境下存在一定差异。植物体各组织的同位素值存在差异,在判别食物来源时需要注意,不能简单地以植物叶片值来代替整个植株。大型底栖动物的δ¹³C值为-14.7‰~-23.6‰,表现出食物来源的差异。总体上说,湿地优势植物的活植物体不是大型底栖动物的主要食物来源,沉积有机质是大部分底栖消费者的食物基础。底栖动物的氮同位素能较好地反映其食性和营养级,计算出崇明东滩大型底栖动物营养级在2.0~3.7,为一级消费者和二级消费者。     

冬季大气中苯系物污染特征及人体暴露水平分析

2007年冬季对乌鲁木齐市空气中苯系物(BTX)进行了网格布点监测,并用气相色谱仪进行样品分析. 结果表明:冬季大气中苯(B)、甲苯(T)和二甲苯(X)的质量浓度分别为5.62~20.57,3.40~122.82和2.20~129.15 μg/m3. 与欧洲标准相比,该地区ρ(苯)较高,且部分地区高于欧洲控制标准;而ρ(甲苯)和ρ(二甲苯)较低,达到欧洲目标限值水平. 苯系物质量浓度和空间分布特点较显著,ρ(甲苯)与ρ(二甲苯)的空间分布较为一致,但与ρ(苯)的分布特点不同. 最后通过对苯系物的人口加权大气污染暴露水平进行分析可知,乌鲁木齐市ρ(苯),ρ(甲苯)和ρ(二甲苯)的污染暴露水平在空间分布上较为均匀,但人口密度空间分布不均匀,故与ρ(苯)分布没有显著的相关性. 城区的ρ(苯),ρ(甲苯)和ρ(二甲苯)的人口加权平均值均略低于全市人口加权平均值,说明虽然城区人口密度较高,但其ρ(苯),ρ(甲苯)和ρ(二甲苯)的人口加权污染暴露水平相对较低.      

The role of local and landscape level measures of greenness in modelling boreal plant species richness

Measurements of primary productivity and its heterogeneity based on satellite images can provide useful estimates of species richness and distribution patterns. However, species richness at a given site may depend not only on local habitat quality and productivity but also on the characteristics of the surrounding landscape. In this study we investigated whether the predictions of species richness of plant families in northern boreal landscape in Finland can be improved by incorporating greenness information from the surrounding landscape, as derived from remotely sensed data (mean, maximum, standard deviation and range values of NDVI derived from Landsat ETM), into local greenness models. Using plant species richness data of 28 plant families from 440 grid cells of 25 ha in size, generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted into three different sets of explanatory variables: (1) local greenness only, (2) landscape greenness only, and (3) combined local and landscape greenness. The derived richness–greenness relationships were mainly unimodal or positively increasing but varied between different plant families, and depended also on whether greenness was measured as mean or maximum greenness. Incorporation of landscape level greenness variables improved significantly both the explanatory power and cross-validation statistics of the models including only local greenness variables. Landscape greenness information derived from remote sensing data integrated with local information has thus the potentiality to improve predictive assessments of species richness over extensive and inaccessible areas, especially in high-latitude landscapes. Overall, the significant relationship between plants and surrounding landscape quality detected here suggests that landscape factors should be considered in preserving species richness of boreal environments, as well as in conservation planning for biodiversity in other environments.     

Verification of the geographical origin of modeled air-mass trajectories by means of the isotope composition of rainwater during the SALLJEX experiment

The SALLJEX experiment was held during the summer 2002–2003. It consisted of three-dimensional observation of the atmosphere to study the structure of the low level jet along the eastern slopes of the Andes. Daily precipitation water samples were collected at two stations (Resistencia and Salta) in northern Argentina and isotope content was analyzed. The isotope data were used in conjunction with air parcel trajectories obtained from a 3-D kinematic model (3D-MTC) developed by the University of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Values of deuterium excess were related with air masses of continental origin, whilst low values were associated with air masses with longer oceanic trajectories. Furthermore, although data are scarce, results show that oxygen-18 and deuterium excess in rainwater are related with the occurrence of the low level jet.     

EcoTroph: Modelling marine ecosystem functioning and impact of fishing

EcoTroph (ET) is a model articulated around the idea that the functioning of aquatic ecosystems may be viewed as a biomass flow moving from lower to higher trophic levels, due to predation and ontogenetic processes. Thus, we show that the ecosystem biomass present at a given trophic level may be estimated from two simple equations, one describing biomass flow, the other their kinetics (which quantifies the velocity of biomass transfers towards top predators). The flow kinetic of prey partly depends on the abundance of their predators, and a top-down equation expressing this is included in the model. Based on these relationships, we simulated the impact on a virtual ecosystem of various exploitation patterns. Specifically, we show that the EcoTroph approach is able to mimic the effects of increased fishing effort on ecosystem biomass expected from theory. Particularly, the model exhibits complex patterns observed in field data, notably cascading effects and ‘fishing down the food web’. EcoTroph also provides diagnostic tools for examining the relationships between catch and fishing effort at the ecosystem scale and the effects of strong top-down controls and fast-flow kinetics on ecosystems resilience. Finally, a dynamic version of the model is derived from the steady-state version, thus allowing simulations of time series of ecosystem biomass and catches. Using this dynamic model, we explore the propagation of environmental variability in the food web, and illustrated how exploitation can induce a decrease of ecosystem stability. The potential for applying EcoTroph to specific ecosystems, based on field data, and similarities between EcoTroph and Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) are finally discussed.