Terraced fields and Mediterranean landscape structure: An analytical case study from Antikythera, Greece

Terraces are important capital investments in a range of agricultural landscapes worldwide, typically enduring well beyond any single farming cycle and over many human generations. This paper begins by emphasising that, while human population growth may often be loosely linked to terrace construction efforts, the association is by no means a straightforward one. We then argue that the choice of which parts of the landscape to terrace is driven by a range of cultural and environmental priorities that are most usefully explored by a combination of global, local and auto-correlative modelling, as well as via simulation-based methods. The results demonstrate that surficial geology, terrain slope, pre-existing terraces and pre-existing patterns of human habitation are all important structuring features. We also consider terraces as method for soil conservation, question the uncritical use of meso-scale erosion models and argue that patterns of catastrophic soil loss are often overstated in Mediterranean contexts. However, erosion modelling can, if deployed cautiously and comparatively, nonetheless be used to explore ways in which terraces do indeed manage localised soil movement in agriculturally favoured parts of the landscape, with our results suggesting that a substantial proportion of the erosion in this regions is indeed ameliorated by such measures.     

Predicting Sustained Fire Spread in Tasmanian Native Grasslands

Fire is widely used in conservation management of native grasslands. Burning is often carried out under conditions that are marginal for sustained fire spread, and therefore it would be useful to be able to predict fire sustainability. There is currently no model allowing such prediction in temperate grasslands. This study aims to identify the environmental variables that determine whether fires will sustain in native grasslands in Tasmania, Australia, and develop a model for predicting fire sustainability in this vegetation. Fuel characteristics and weather conditions were recorded for 111 test fires. Logistic regression modeling identified dead fuel moisture content, fuel load, and percentage dead fuel as predictors of fire sustainability. Classification tree modeling identified dead fuel moisture and fuel load threshold values for sustaining fires. There was also evidence indicating a percentage dead fuel threshold. The logistic regression model and a model combining the results of the classification tree and the percentage dead fuel threshold accurately predicted the outcomes of a small set of experimental fires. These models are likely to have utility in predicting fire sustainability in Tasmanian grasslands and are also likely to be applicable to similar grasslands elsewhere.     

农户对替代生计的选择及其影响因素分析——以甘南黄河水源补给区为例

论文通过实地调查获得研究数据,分析了农区、 半农半牧区、 纯牧区农户替代生计选择的结果及特征,采用Logistic回归模型对影响农户替代生计选择意愿的因素进行分析。研究得出:①在替代生计的选择上,纯牧区农户主要选择特色产品加工、 做生意、 现代畜牧业,农区和半农半牧区农户主要选择做生意、 外出打工和旅游服务业;②农户对替代生计的选择表现出生计路径依赖性、 区域差异性和多样性特征;③农户对替代生计的选择偏好受生计资本的影响,自然资本、 社会资本、 家庭整体劳动能力、 家庭整体受教育水平、 家庭拥有的牲畜数量、 户主的学历和年龄分别对不同替代生计的选择影响显著。地方政府应深入了解农户选择替代生计的特点和影响因素,根据不同家庭的情况设计相应的转型政策促进农户尽快提高生计能力。     

Updating coarse-scale species distribution models using small fine-scale samples

Large, fine-grained samples are ideal for predictive species distribution models used for management purposes, but such datasets are not available for most species and conducting such surveys is costly. We attempted to overcome this obstacle by updating previously available coarse-grained logistic regression models with small fine-grained samples using a recalibration approach. Recalibration involves re-estimation of the intercept or slope of the linear predictor and may improve calibration (level of agreement between predicted and actual probabilities). If reliable estimates of occurrence likelihood are required (e.g., for species selection in ecological restoration) calibration should be preferred to other model performance measures. This updating approach is not expected to improve discrimination (the ability of the model to rank sites according to species suitability), because the rank order of predictions is not altered. We tested different updating methods and sample sizes with tree distribution data from Spain. Updated models were compared to models fitted using only fine-grained data (refitted models). Updated models performed reasonably well at fine scales and outperformed refitted models with small samples (10-100 occurrences). If a coarse-grained model is available (or could be easily developed) and fine-grained predictions are to be generated from a limited sample size, updating previous models may be a more accurate option than fitting a new model. Our results encourage further studies on model updating in other situations where species distribution models are used under different conditions from their training (e.g., different time periods, different regions).     

大气环境质量综合评价的修正Logistic曲线模型

为检验现行大气环境质量评价标准的合理性 ,解决各单项大气环境质量指标的评价结果的不相容问题 ,提高大气环境质量等级模型的分辨率 ,提出了一种新的大气环境质量评价模型———修正Logistic曲线模型 ,它的大气环境质量等级是连续的实数值。根据修正Logistic曲线模型的参数值可以分析各大气环境质量指标值对大气环境质量等级的影响程度 ,据此检验现行大气环境质量等级标准的合理性。实例研究结果表明 ,该方法是可行、有效且通用的 ,在环境质量综合评价中具有广泛的应用价值。     

机动车闯红灯判别模型及评价研究

为了提高机动车闯红灯警示系统判别准确率,提出适用于该系统的机动车闯红灯判别模型并进行评价。首先综述闯红灯警示系统的产生与发展现状,根据系统服务需求与工作流程,提出使用Logistic回归与神经网络方法建立判别模型预测机动车停止-通过行为,通过城市交通实测数据对模型进行评价。数据采集自上海城市道路交叉口进口道,通过Autoscope视频检测系统提取机动车运行数据。评价结果表明,Logistic回归与神经网络模型正确判别率均达到90%以上,神经网络具有更好的判别准确率。相对于速度,当前检测地点与上游地点30 m处车速差或速度比更宜作为模型中的判别参数。     

基于有序Logistic回归的水库移民住房感知实证研究

针对水利工程移民的住房感知问题和住房感知等级为定序变量的特点,基于有序logistic回归分析理论,构建移民住房感知的有序logistic回归模型,并针对浯溪口水利枢纽工程移民进行实证研究。主要结论如下:1施肥种类、最高教育水平和家庭年收入对移民住房感知存在显著正向作用,水源种类对移民住房感知存在显著负向作用。2施肥种类要素分析表明,当地移民生活对农业生产依赖性较高,且移民对区域交通状态改变预期是导致其住房感知差异化的主要因素。3最高教育水平要素分析表明,教育程度越高,移民住房感知越高。4水源要素分析表明,移民对水源的获取难度和成本的预期越差,其住房感知越差。5家庭年收入要素分析表明,家庭年收入越高,移民对未来的预期越好,其住房感知越高,经济发展是解决移民问题的基础。     

Assessing the likelihood of secondary crashes on freeways with Adaptive Signal Control System deployed on alternate routes

Introduction: Reducing the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes will provide significant safety, operational and environmental benefits. This paper presents a method for assessing the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes with Adaptive Signal Control Systems (ASCS) deployed on alternate routes that are typically used by diverted freeway traffic to avoid any delay or congestion due to a freeway primary crash. Method: The method includes four steps: (1) identification of secondary crashes, (2) verification of alternate routes, (3) assessment of the likelihood of secondary crashes for freeways with ASCS deployed on alternate routes and non-ASCS (i.e. pre-timed, semi- or fully-actuated) alternate routes, and (4) investigation of unobserved heterogeneity of the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes. Four freeway sections (i.e., two with ASCS deployed on alternate routes and two non-ASCS alternate routes) in South Carolina are considered. Results and Conclusions: Findings from the logistic regression modeling reveal significant reduction in the likelihood of secondary crashes for one freeway section (i.e., Charleston I-26 E) with ASCS deployed on alternate route. Other factors such as rear-end crash, dark or limited light, peak period, and annual average daily traffic contribute to the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes. Furthermore, random-parameter logistic regression model results for Charleston I-26 E reveal that unobserved heterogeneity of ASCS effect exists across the observations and ASCS are associated with the reduction of the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes for 84% of the observations (i.e., primary crashes). Location of the primary crash on the freeway is observed to affect the benefit of ASCS toward freeway secondary crash reduction as the primary crash’s location determines how many upstream freeway vehicles will be able to take the alternate route. Practical Applications: Based on the findings, it is recommended that the South Carolina Department of Transportation (SCDOT) considers deploying ASCS on alternate routes parallel to freeway sections where high percentages of secondary crashes are found.     

受限水域船舶积压风险测度方法研究

为了系统、客观地评估受限水域船舶积压衍生风险,实现对船舶积压风险的防控,进行船舶积压风险测度方法的研究。阐述了受限水域船舶积压风险的3种表现形式,提炼了风险表现形式的测评指标,提出了受限水域船舶积压指数,并建立了以二元Logistic回归为核心的风险测度模型,对积压风险测评指标进行量化处理,最后通过对三峡-葛洲坝枢纽船舶积压风险的实证分析验证测度方法的可行性。结果表明,受限水域船舶积压风险测度方法可以根据水域特征筛选积压风险主要测评指标,并最终得到积压衍生风险发生概率预测公式,预测并判断相应水域某一时期的船舶积压衍生风险严重程度,对实时测度和降低受限水域船舶积压风险、完善受限水域船舶通航安全预警和相关软件开发运用具有重要意义。     

Accounting for large-scale factors in the study of understory vegetation using a conditional logistic model

Local-scale and large-scale factors can affect the presence of a species of understory vegetation in the forest. Local-scale factors may be the influence of surrounding trees, while climate and latitude are typically considered large-scale factors. A model for the presence of a species needs to take into account both scales. A conditional logistic model is proposed for those studies where only the local-scale factors are of interest and that avoids estimating the large-scale parameters. Conditioning is carried out by the number of quadrats in the plot where the vegetation is found. As the latter is a sufficient statistic for the large-scale factors, a model free from these parameters is obtained. Data gathered in the permanent sample plots of the 1985–1986 National Forest Inventory of Finland is used for illustration, where the local-scale factor of interest is the influence of the trees, quantified by an index based on the size and location of the trees. The model fitted to Vaccinium vitis-idaea showed a significant and positive influence of Scots pine on the presence of this species, while for Calamagrostis arundinacea, a decrease in the odds ratio was observed due to the influence of Norway spruce.