Ecological processes and sustainability

SUMMARY

Ecology has developed from its position as an obscure science to being at the interface of science and public policy. The impact of mankind can be described in ecological terms relating to population size, energy use and non-renewability. Sustainable development needs to be addressed on the basis of knowledge of ecological processes which maintain the environment in a state of change; the processes need to be conserved, not maintained in any particular state. Recent advances in the understanding of ecological processes are reviewed to highlight the potential contribution of this knowledge to the development of a sustainable policy. At the level of the population the significance of considering the extinction risks in the framework of spatio-temporal dynamics is now established indicating opportunities for planning land use more precisely to sustain biodiversity. Whilst the maintenance of habitats is generally the key to the persistence of biodiversity, they must be viewed as ever-changing mosaics within which cycles of succession, best described by Markovian sets of probabilities, are occurring continually. The extent to which these probabilities are distorted will determine whether the ecosystem returns to the same system or moves to a novel one. At the global level, biogeochemical cycles have a certain flexibility in relation to fluxes and stocks, hence pollution must be defined by relating the flow rate of the substance to this flexibility, which often permits the accommodation of anthropogenic perturbations. Non-sustainable processes can be defined in ecological terms, thus providing functional definitions of a sustainable policy and of sustainable development.     

Relationships of the dimensions of sustainability as measured by the sustainable society index framework

This article presents a study of the interrelationships between the different dimensions of sustainability as measured by the sustainable society index framework. We examine the statistical relationships between the four indices making up the sustainable society index framework. The analysis uses the complete existing data set provided by Sustainable Society Foundation for the years 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012 and for 151 countries. While the time period where data are available is quite short, we can make some preliminary observations about the apparent trends in the interrelationships of the different dimensions of sustainability. This study shows that the three dimensions of sustainability are far from all being synergic and positively correlated. There is a strong negative correlation between human well-being and environmental well-being. This is problematic from the point of view of the Brundtland Commission’s three-pillar definition of sustainability. However, the trade-off relationship between economic and environmental development measured by the economic well-being index and environmental well-being index is decreasing and the dimensions are becoming more de-linked. This trend is promising from the sustainability perspective.     

Disaster vulnerability of businesses in the 2001 Nisqually earthquake

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of the February, 2001, Nisqually earthquake on businesses. Focusing on two hard-hit business districts in Seattle, the study investigates the extent of losses, patterns of disparities, and underlying loss factors. A conceptual framework is proposed of how business vulnerability dimensions contribute to disaster loss. Interviews were conducted with owners and managers of 107 businesses. Data were gathered on impacts, methods of finance, and disaster preparedness. Results showed that business losses were much greater than what standard statistical data would imply. Analysis found that a composite index of vulnerability—based on business sector, size, and building occupancy tenure—provides a very powerful predictor of business loss. Physical damage was a much weaker predictor of loss. Moreover, business recovery was influenced not only by characteristics of the business itself, but also by conditions in the neighborhood.     

The effects of direct and indirect constraints on biological communities

Human activities are expected to result in a diversity of directional or stochastic constraints that affect species either directly or by indirectly impacting their resources. However, there is no theoretical framework to predict the complex and various effects of these constraints on ecological communities. We developed a dynamic model that mimics the use of different resource types by a community of competing species. We investigated the effects of different environmental constraints (affecting either directly the growth rate of species or having indirect effects on their resources) on several biodiversity indicators. Our results indicate that (i) in realistic community models (assuming uneven resource requirements among species) the effects of perturbations are strongly buffered compared to neutral models; (ii) the species richness of communities can be maximized for intermediate levels of direct constraints (unimodal response), even in the absence of trade-off between competitive ability and tolerance to constraints; (iii) no such unimodal response occurs with indirect constraints; (iv) an increase in the environmental (e.g., climatic) variance may have different effects on community biomass and species richness.     

公路路网建设项目声环境影响评价研究

以甘肃省某市新区基础设施建设中的路网建设为例,根据公路路网的交通参数、道路地形地貌条件、路面设施等,利用导则推荐模式预测路网噪声贡献值。该新区路网中道路距离多在500m以上,不论道路平行还是相交,噪声影响以主干道为主,以次干道为辅,相互影响;根据路网噪声环境影响的特点,提出切实可行的声环境影响减缓措施。     

Business recovery: an assessment framework

This paper presents a Business Recovery Assessment Framework (BRAF) to help researchers and practitioners design robust, repeatable, and comparable studies of business recovery in various post‐disruption contexts. Studies assessing business recovery without adequately considering the research aims, recovery definitions, and indicators can produce misleading findings. The BRAF is composed of a series of steps that guide the decisions that researchers need to make to ensure: (i) that recovery is indeed being measured; (ii) that the indicators of recovery that are selected align with the objectives of the study and the definition of recovery; and, where necessary, (iii) that appropriate comparative control variables are in place. The paper draws on a large dataset of business surveys collected following the earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand, on 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011 to demonstrate the varied conclusions that different recovery indicators can produce and to justify the need for a systematic approach to business recovery assessments.     

高速气固两相流作用下的煤化工管材冲蚀磨损行为研究

为解决煤化工业中节流阀突扩口高速气固两相流对管壁材质的冲蚀磨损问题,利用基于激波管原理驱动的气固两相流冲蚀实验装置,试验研究冲击角度、温度对煤化工管材(10#、AISI304)的冲蚀磨损规律。研究结果表明:10#、AISI304管材的冲蚀率将随着冲击角度的增加而先增大后减小;室温下,10#、AISI 304钢的最大冲蚀率均出现在15°~30°区间;随着温度的升高,10#的最大冲蚀率出现在30°~45°区间,AISI304最大冲蚀率出现在30°。10#在30°,45°冲击角度下冲蚀磨损率会随温度上升显著上升,在15°冲击角度下冲蚀磨损率反而会随温度上升而下降。AISI 304在15°,30°,45°冲击角度下,冲蚀磨损率均会随温度上升而上升;在特定条件下,10#管材的冲蚀性能将优于AISI304。     

Policy relevance of three integrated assessment tools—A comparison with specific reference to agricultural policies

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), a system of market support instruments, direct income transfers, and rural development measures, has been put through an ongoing reform process in recent decades. This paper introduces three policy impact assessment tools (SIAT, SEAMLESS-IF, MEA-Scope tool) and analyses how these tools have responded to a number of challenges for integrated assessment modelling as reported in the international literature. Significant progress has been made with regard to modelling linkages whereas other challenges, particularly those related to issues of scale and uncertainty management, require further efforts. It is also analysed which CAP instruments are represented and what kinds of effects can be analysed at different scales. Market instruments and direct payments are comparatively well represented, while the ability to model rural development measures is mostly beyond the scope of these tools. Because each tool has found a different solution for coping with the common challenges of integrated assessment modelling, the choice of one of the tools for a particular application depends strongly on the policy questions being asked. The SIAT provides the big picture via its ability to represent broad changes in policy instruments with EU-wide cross-sector impacts. The most comprehensive analysis of agricultural policy instruments can be obtained with SEAMLESS-IF. The MEA-Scope tool complements the other two approaches with detailed regional profiles.     

Ecosystem network analysis indicators are generally robust to parameter uncertainty in a phosphorus model of Lake Sidney Lanier, USA

Understanding how data uncertainty influences ecosystem analysis is critical as we move toward ecosystem-based management. Here, we investigate how 18 Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) indicators that characterize ecosystem growth, development, and condition are affected by uncertainty in an ecosystem model of Lake Sidney Lanier (USA). We applied ENA to 122 plausible parameterizations of the ecosystem developed by Borrett and Osidele (2007, Ecological Modelling 200, 371-387), and then used the coefficient of variation (CV) to compare system indicator variability. We considered Total System Throughput (TST) as a measure of the underlying model uncertainty and tested three hypotheses. First, we hypothesized that non-ratio indicators whose calculation includes the TST would be at least as variable as TST if not more variable. Second, we postulated that indicators calculated as ratios, with TST in the numerator and denominator would tend to be less variable than TST because its influence will cancel. Last, we expected the Average Mutual Information (AMI) to be less variable than TST because it is a bounded function. Our work shows that the 18 indicators grouped into four categories. The first group has significantly larger CVs than the CV for TST. In this group, model uncertainty is amplified rendering these three indicators less useful. The second group of four indicators shows no significant difference in variability with respect to TST. Finally, there are two groups whose CV values are significantly lower than that for TST. The least variable group includes the ratio-based indicators and Average Mutual Information. Due to their low variability, we conclude that these indicators are the most robust to the parameter uncertainty and most useful for ecosystem assessment and comparative ecosystem analysis. In summary, this work suggests that we can be as certain, or more certain, in most of the selected ENA indicators as we are in the parameters of the model analyzed.     

How humans shape wolf behavior in Banff and Kootenay National Parks, Canada

This paper describes the conceptualization and implementation of an agent-based model to investigate how varying levels of human presence could affect elements of wolf behavior, including highway crossings; use of areas in proximity to roads and trails; size of home ranges; activities, such as hunting, patrolling, resting, and feeding pups; and survival of individuals in Banff and Kootenay National Parks, Canada. The model consists of a wolf module as the primary component with five packs represented as cognitive agents, and grizzly bear, elk, and human modules that represent dynamic components of the environment. A set of environmental data layers was used to develop a friction model that serves as a base map representing the landscape over which wolves moved. A decision model was built to simulate the sequence of wolf activities. The model was implemented in a Java Programming Language using RePast, an agent-based modeling library. Six months of wolf activities were simulated from April 16 to October 15 (i.e., a season coherent with regard to known wolf behaviors), and calibrated with GPS data from wolf radiocollars (n = 15) deployed from 2002 to 2004. Results showed that the simulated trajectories of wolf movements were correlated with the observed trajectories (Spearman's rho 0.566, P < 0.001); other critical behaviors, such as time spent at the den and not traveling were also correlated. The simulations revealed that wolf movements and behaviors were noticeably affected by the intensity of human presence. The packs’ home ranges shrank and wolves crossed highways less frequently with increased human presence. In an extreme example, a wolf pack whose home range is traversed by a high-traffic-volume highway was extirpated due to inability to hunt successfully under a scenario wherein human presence levels were increased 10-fold. The modeling prototype developed in this study may serve as a tool to test hypotheses about human effects on wolves and on other mammals, and guide decision-makers in designing management strategies that minimize impacts on wolves and on other species functionally related to wolves in the ecosystem.