山岭隧道施工中塌方风险评估模型研究及应用

为评估隧道施工中塌方风险,以确定其可能性及严重程度作为2条主线。由文献调研并结合待评估隧道风险特征、施工现状、工程概况等建立塌方可能性评估指标体系,运用层次分析法(AHP)与多层次模糊综合决策确定塌方风险事件可能性等级,定性指标由专家评判确定对各可能性等级的隶属度,定量指标的隶属度以正态分布作为隶属函数求出;综合考虑多种事故后果类型,选用当量估计法确定塌方风险事件严重程度;最后基于风险矩阵法确定隧道塌方风险等级。将本模型应用于兴隆隧道1号斜井,经评估该斜井塌方风险等级为Ⅲ级,即较大风险,后续施工中须采取有效措施降低风险,减少风险可能导致的损失。     

Study on the effect of landfill leachate on nutrient removal from municipal wastewater

In this study, landfill leachate with and without pre-treatment was co-treated with municipal wastewater at different mixing ratios. The leachate pre-treatment was achieved by air stripping to removal ammonia. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of landfill leachate on nutrient removal of the wastewater treatment process. It was demonstrated that when landfill leachate was co-treated with municipal wastewater, the high ammonia concentration in the leachate did not have a negative impact on the nitrification. The system was able to adapt to the environment and was able to improve nitrification capacity. The readily biodegradable portion of chemical oxygen demand (COD) in the leachate was utilized by the system to improve phosphorus and nitrate removal. However, this portion was small and majority of the COD ended up in the effluent thereby decreased the quality of the effluent. The study showed that the 2.5% mixing ratio of leachate with wastewater improved the overall biological nutrient removal process of the system without compromising the COD removal efficiency.     

基体改性抗氧化碳材料的高温氧化性能研究

目的研究ZrB_2-SiC复相组元改性碳材料在1800℃以上氧化气氛中的氧化性能。方法利用感应加热高温氧化测试装置测试抗烧蚀性能,通过SEM,XRD等手段对氧化产物的组成、氧化层的微观结构进行分析。结果ZrB_2-SiC复相组元的引入可以大大降低碳材料的氧化速率,在1800℃和2100℃高温氧化条件下,C-ZrB_2-SiC材料和纯碳材料的氧化动力学均遵循线性规律。结论基体改性抗氧化碳材料具有良好的高温抗氧化性能。     

Si(B)CN 陶瓷及其复合材料评价与应用研究现状

总结了近年来Si(B)CN陶瓷及其复合材料评价与应用研究现状。首先介绍了Si(B)CN陶瓷及其复合材料的制备,而后详细综述了Si(B)CN陶瓷及其复合材料在力学性能、氧化行为、烧蚀行为、疲劳与蠕变性能、环境性能等方面的性能评价,并对其应用现状进行了概述。     

基于博弈论的环保数据质量影响因素分析研究

污染源产排污数据是一切环保工作的基础,确保真实可信具有十分重要的意义.为此,分析了影响污染源产排污数据质量的主要因素:受经济利益驱动的自身因素;受政绩利益驱动的管理因素和受地方保护驱动的政府因素等.在新环保法未得到充分贯彻,排污单位、环保主管部门和地方政府三者违法成本均低于守法成本的条件下,以博奕论为分析工具讨论了三种影响因素产生负面作用的必然性,并根据分析结果针对性地提出了提高数据质量的应对策略.     

A numerical model for drying of spherical object in an indirect type solar dryer and estimating the drying time at different moisture level and air temperature

A numerical model for simultaneous heat and mass transfer was developed for solar drying of spherical objects and the object considered is green peas. Solar collector outlet temperature is assumed as drying chamber temperature and justified through energy balance equations. Assumptions are imposed on heat and mass transfer governing equations without losing the physics of the problem. Discretization is performed by finite difference method with implicit scheme. To generalize, the governing equation and boundary conditions are non-dimensionalized. The set of finite difference equations was solved by Tridiagonal Matrix Algorithm and a computer code in MATLAB was developed to solve them. The drying curves showed two stages of drying, initial, and secondary drying stage. At all drying temperatures and drying time, the center moisture was maximum and it was minimum at the boundary. A percentage of 85.67 surface moisture content and 25.33% center moisture was eliminated in the first 1 hr at 348 K. The product should be dried up to 7.45, 4.74, and 3.74 hr at air drying temperatures of 318, 333, and 348 K respectively, to maintain 10% of the product’s initial moisture content. The result is compared with the experimental result from literature and they are found to be in good agreement.     

Economics of Grassland Conversion to Cropland in the Prairie Pothole Region

Abstract: Much of the remaining grassland, particularly in North America, is privately owned, and its conversion to cultivated cropland is largely driven by economics. An understanding of why landowners convert grassland to cropland could facilitate more effective design of grassland‐conservation programs. We built an empirical model of land‐use change in the Prairie Pothole Region (north‐central United States) to estimate the probability of grassland conversion to alternative agricultural land uses, including cultivated crops. Conversion was largely driven by landscape characteristics and the economic returns of alternative uses. Our estimate of the probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops (1.33% on average from 1979 to 1997) was higher than past estimates (0.4%). Our model also predicted that grassland‐conversion probabilities will increase if agricultural commodity prices continue to follow the trends observed from 2001 to 2006 (0.93% probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops in 2006 to 1.5% in 2011). Thus, nearly 121 million ha (30 million acres) of grassland could be converted by 2011. Conversion probabilities, however, are spatially heterogeneous (range 0.2% to 3%), depending on characteristics of a parcel (e.g., soil quality and economic returns). Grassland parcels with relatively high‐quality land for agricultural production are more likely to be converted to cultivated crops than lower‐quality parcels and are more responsive to changes in the economic returns on alternative agricultural land uses (i.e., conversion probability increases by a larger magnitude for high‐quality parcels when economics returns to alternative uses increase). Our results suggest that grassland conservation programs could be proactively targeted toward high‐risk parcels by anticipating changes in economic returns, such as could occur if a new biofuel processing plant were to be built in an area.     

Environment-specific elasticity and sensitivity analysis of the stochastic growth rate

For matrix population models, analyses of how sensitive the population growth rate is to changes in vital rates (i.e. perturbations) are important for studies of life history evolution as well as for management and conservation of threatened species. There are two types of sensitivity analyses corresponding to absolute (sensitivity) or relative (elasticity) changes in the vital rates and both types can be applied to both deterministic and stochastic matrix population models. To date, most empirical studies of elasticity and sensitivity of the stochastic growth rate have examined the response to perturbations in the vital rates in a complete set of possible environments. However, it is often of interest to examine the response to perturbations occurring in only a subset of the possible environments. This has been done for periodic time-varying models elsewhere, but here we describe a recently published method for calculating the environment-specific sensitivity and elasticity of the stochastic growth rate and apply this method to data. These environment-specific perturbation analyses provide a logical way of dividing the sensitivity and elasticity among the environments. They give important insight into the selection regime in different environments and can provide valuable information for making management decisions and management evaluations in stochastic environments.     

Exploring alternative states in ecological systems with a qualitative analysis of community feedback

Demonstrating and predicting the existence of alternative states in natural communities remains a challenge for ecologists and is essential for resource managers. Positive feedback is often presented as central in maintaining alternative ecosystem states, but no formal approach relates this part of theory to real world applications. Through qualitative modelling of community response to long-term perturbations, we define generic mechanistic links between positive feedback and the occurrence of alternative states. Positive feedback diminishes a system's overall resistance to change, and can create and maintain correlations in the relative abundance of variables that coincide with alternative states.Through specific models of the dynamics of Tasmanian rocky-reef communities, which are affected by climate and fishing and persist within alternative states, we demonstrate the ability of our theoretical framework to predict alternative states in ecosystems and inform management intervention. A qualitative knowledge of community structure permits a thorough analysis of system feedback and an assessment of the potential for an ecosystem to exhibit alternative states. We illustrate the usefulness of the approach to inform management priorities, and to focus monitoring and field research on the key drivers of ecosystem dynamics.     

Research on the recycling industry development model for typical exterior plastic components of end-of-life passenger vehicle based on the SWOT method

In-depth studies on the recycling of typical automotive exterior plastic parts are significant and beneficial for environmental protection, energy conservation, and sustainable development of China. In the current study, several methods were used to analyze the recycling industry model for typical exterior parts of passenger vehicles in China. The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and challenges of the current recycling industry for typical exterior parts of passenger vehicles were analyzed comprehensively based on the SWOT method. The internal factor evaluation matrix and external factor evaluation matrix were used to evaluate the internal and external factors of the recycling industry. The recycling industry was found to respond well to all the factors and it was found to face good developing opportunities. Then, the cross-link strategies analysis for the typical exterior parts of the passenger car industry of China was conducted based on the SWOT analysis strategies and established SWOT matrix. Finally, based on the aforementioned research, the recycling industry model led by automobile manufacturers was promoted.