航空事故调查中人的因素安全建议框架研究

对航空事故中人的不安全行为进行了系统分析,将失误划分为感知失误、记忆失误、决策失误、技能失误4个类别,将违章划分为习惯性违章和偶然性违章。将人的因素干预维度确定为组织管理、人/团队、技术、任务和环境。针对不安全行为制定相应的初步改进措施后,还需从措施的可行性、可接受性、经济性和有效性4个方面进行综合评估和取舍。实证研究表明,人的因素干预矩阵是制定安全建议的有效工具,该框架具备良好的适用性。     

改进的HAZOP风险评价方法

HAZOP方法是一种使用简单却高度专业化、系统化,能够覆盖过程工业安全评价各个环节的危险辨识与评估方法。但是,HAZOP方法作为一种定性风险分析方法,仅仅是从定性方面分析装置中是否存在的潜在风险,对于存在的潜在风险,不能量化其严重度和可能性,HAZOP定量/半定量化分析成为本研究领域的发展趋势。本文从三个方面提出了改进HAZOP分析方法。首先,由于工艺参数和引导词构成偏差,根据工艺参数的分类,将偏差划分为数值型和逻辑型,进行了一步半定量化;其次,引入了毒性参数,对后果严重等级重新划分为五级;最后根据风险矩阵理论,运用风险矩阵C=X＋Y规则,计算出风险矩阵,按照风险评价的需要并且根据生产的实际安全管理状况,划分风险等级为四级,得到了新的风险矩阵,从而把HAZOP分析法从一种定性的方法改进为一种半定量的方法。     

Dynamic floodplain vegetation model development for the Kootenai River, USA

The Kootenai River floodplain in Idaho, USA, is nearly disconnected from its main channel due to levee construction and the operation of Libby Dam since 1972. The decreases in flood frequency and magnitude combined with the river modification have changed the physical processes and the dynamics of floodplain vegetation. This research describes the concept, methodologies and simulated results of the rule-based dynamic floodplain vegetation model "CASiMiR-vegetation" that is used to simulate the effect of hydrological alteration on vegetation dynamics. The vegetation dynamics are simulated based on existing theory but adapted to observed field data on the Kootenai River. The model simulates the changing vegetation patterns on an annual basis from an initial condition based on spatially distributed physical parameters such as shear stress, flood duration and height-over-base flow level. The model was calibrated and the robustness of the model was analyzed. The hydrodynamic (HD) models were used to simulate relevant physical processes representing historic, pre-dam, and post-dam conditions from different representative hydrographs. The general concept of the vegetation model is that a vegetation community will be recycled if the magnitude of a relevant physical parameter is greater than the threshold value for specific vegetation; otherwise, succession will take place toward maturation stage. The overall accuracy and agreement Kappa between simulated and field observed maps were low considering individual vegetation types in both calibration and validation areas. Overall accuracy (42% and 58%) and agreement between maps (0.18 and 0.27) increased notably when individual vegetation types were merged into vegetation phases in both calibration and validation areas, respectively. The area balance approach was used to analyze the proportion of area occupied by different vegetation phases in the simulated and observed map. The result showed the impact of the river modification and hydrological alteration on the floodplain vegetation. The spatially distributed vegetation model developed in this study is a step forward in modeling riparian vegetation succession and can be used for operational loss assessment, and river and floodplain restoration projects.     

Characterization of dissolved organic matter as N-nitrosamine precursors based on hydrophobicity, molecular weight and fluorescence

It is very important to identify the dominant precursors for N-nitrosamine formation from bulk organic matter, to enhance the understanding of N-nitrosamine formation pathways in water treatment plants and allow the development of practical treatment technologies. In this study, dissolved organic matter (DOM) from two source waters was fractionated with XAD resins and ultra- filtration membranes. The N-nitrosamine formation potential (FP) (ng of N-nitrosamines formed per mg of dissolved organic carbon (DOC)) from raw water and each fraction were measured and correlated with the fluorescence excitation-emission matrix (EEM), molecular weight (MW) and other assays. The results showed that the hydrophilic fraction had N-nitrosamine FP 1.3 to 3.5 times higher than the hydrophobic fraction from both source waters. The DOM fraction with low MW was the dominant fraction in these two source waters and contributed more precursors for N-nitrosamine formation than the larger MW fraction. The EEM spectra indicated there were notable amounts of soluble microbial products (SMPs) and aromatic proteins in the two studied rivers, which probably originated from wastewater discharge. The SMPs tended to be more closely correlated with N-nitrosodimethylamine formation potential than the other DOM components. Higher N-nitrosamine FP were also related to fractions with lower DOC/DON ratios and lower SUVA 254 values.     

山东省人力资本空间结构的分形研究

本文试圈将分形理论及方法引入到区域人力资本空间结构的研究之中，首先利用马尔柯夫转移矩阵对山东省人力资本等级结构进行了预测，在这一基础上，计算出了1992年、1997年和2002年山东省人力资本空间结构的分维数。并对2007年的分维数进行了模拟，结果表明这一分维数不断下降。最后总结了山东省人力资本空间结构的特点。     

离子色谱法中高浓度盐基体对无机阴离子分析影响规律的研究

本文首次研究高浓度盐基体中，大量盐的存在对无机阴离子的保留时间，峰高峰面积等参数的影响规律，并对其影响机理进行了初步探讨，实验证明，在样品中离子总浓度不超过柱容量孤情况下，虽然由于某些离子的浓度过高，使待测离子的保留时间变短，峰形改变，但用峰面积和标准加入外推法计算，仍可得到较即的结果。     

华北典型工矿城镇土壤重金属来源解析及潜在生态风险评价

为掌握典型工矿城镇土壤重金属状况,定量解析潜在来源,以河北省张家口市宣化区部分区域土壤为研究对象,采集并测定150个表层土壤中Cd、As、Pb、Cr、Cu、Ni和Zn这7种重金属含量;采用地累积指数法和潜在生态风险指数法评估重金属污染状况和潜在生态风险;使用主成分分析法和正定矩阵因子分解（PMF）模型对7种重金属元素进行综合污染源解析,并结合地统计学法识别各潜在源的高贡献区域.结果表明：①研究区7种重金属含量的平均值范围为0.23~103.34 mg ·kg^-1,其中,Cd、Pb、Cu和Zn的含量平均值高于河北省土壤背景值,Cd污染最为严重,平均含量为背景值的2.43倍.②地累积指数和潜在生态风险指数结果显示,7种重金属污染程度依次为：Cd>Pb>Cu>Zn>Ni>As>Cr,16%点位的Cd含量处于中度污染以上水平,95%以上的点位重金属潜在生态风险处于轻度风险等级.③研究区的7种重金属积累主要来源为工业与交通的混合源、自然源和农业源,贡献率分别为33.1%、48.7%和18.2%.其中,Cd受到工业与交通的混合源和农业源的影响,Cr、Ni和As主要受自然源影响,Pb和Cu受到工业与交通的混合源和自然源的共同作用,Zn主要受工业与交通的混合源影响.主成分分析法、PMF模型与地统计学方法的有机结合,彼此印证,增加了重金属源解析结果的可信度.     

A review of the technology and applications of methods for evaluating the transport of air pollutants

A variety of methods based on air quality models, including tracer methods, the brute-force method (BFM), decoupled direct method (DDM), high-order decoupled direct method (HDDM), response surface models (RSMs) and so on forth, have been widely used to study the transport of air pollutants. These methods have good applicability for the transport of air pollutants with simple formation mechanisms. However, differences in research conclusions on secondary pollutants with obvious nonlinear characteristics have been reported. For example, the tracer method is suitable for the study of simplified scenarios, while HDDM and RSMs are more suitable for the study for nonlinear pollutants. Multiple observation techniques, including conventional air pollutant observation, lidar observation, air sounding balloons, vehicle-mounted and ship-borne technology, aerial surveys, and remote sensing observations, have been utilized to investigate air pollutant transport characteristics with time resolution as high as 1 sec. In addition, based on a multi-regional input-output model combined with emission inventories, the transfer of air pollutant emissions can be evaluated and applied to study the air pollutant transport characteristics. Observational technologies have advantages in temporal resolution and accuracy, while modeling technologies are more flexible in spatial resolution and research plan setting. In order to accurately quantify the transport characteristics of pollutants, it is necessary to develop a research method for interactive verification of observation and simulation. Quantitative evaluation of the transport of air pollutants from different angles can provide a scientific basis for regional joint prevention and control.     

COVID-19管控期间苏州市PM2.5中金属元素浓度变化及来源解析

为了解COVID-19管控期间苏州市PM_2.5中金属元素浓度变化和来源,利用多金属在线监测仪于2019年12月1日～2020年3月31日测定了14种金属元素小时浓度,分析停产前、停产期和复工期金属元素浓度变化,并采用PMF模型分析其污染来源.结果表明,停产期Cr、 Mn、 Zn和Fe浓度降幅最大,较停产前分别降低了87.6%、 85.6%、 78.3%和72.2%;复工期Mn、 Cr、 Zn和Fe浓度升幅最大,较停产期分别增加了227.0%、 215.4%、 147.4%和113.4%.K在3个阶段日变化均不相同;Zn在3个阶段日变化均呈单峰形,但峰宽和峰值出现时间有所不同;Fe、 Mn、 Pb、 Se和Hg日变化无明显变化,仅仅是浓度发生了变化;Ca、 Ba、 Cu、 As、 Cr和Ni停产期和复工期日变化较停产前变化较大. PMF模型来源解析结果表明,金属元素主要来源于扬尘、机动车、燃煤、工业冶炼和混合燃烧源,其中工业冶炼源浓度变化最大,停产期浓度下降了89.0%,复工期浓度较停产期上升了358.0%.