Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Biogeochemical processes at the fringe of a landfill leachate pollution plume: potential for dissolved organic carbon, Fe(II), Mn(II), NH4, and CH4 oxidation

Various redox reactions may occur at the fringe of a landfill leachate plume, involving oxidation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), CH4, Fe(II), Mn(II), and NH4 from leachate and reduction of O2, NO3 and SO4 from pristine groundwater. Knowledge on the relevance of these processes is essential for the simulation and evaluation of natural attenuation (NA) of pollution plumes. The occurrence of such biogeochemical processes was investigated at the top fringe of a landfill leachate plume (Banisveld, the Netherlands). Hydrochemical depth profiles of the top fringe were captured via installation of a series of multi-level samplers at 18, 39 and 58 m downstream from the landfill. Ten-centimeter vertical resolution was necessary to study NA within a fringe as thin as 0.5 m. Bromide appeared an equally well-conservative tracer as chloride to calculate dilution of landfill leachate, and its ratio to chloride was high compared to other possible sources of salt in groundwater. The plume fringe rose steadily from a depth of around 5 m towards the surface with a few meters in the period 1998-2003. The plume uplift may be caused by enhanced exfiltration to a brook downstream from the landfill, due to increased precipitation over this period and an artificial lowering of the water level of the brook. This rise invoked cation exchange including proton buffering, and triggered degassing of methane. The hydrochemical depth profile was simulated in a 1D vertical reactive transport model using PHREEQC-2. Optimization using the nonlinear optimization program PEST brought forward that solid organic carbon and not clay minerals controlled retardation of cations. Cation exchange resulted in spatial separation of Fe(II), Mn(II) and NH4 fronts from the fringe, and thereby prevented possible oxidation of these secondary redox species. Degradation of DOC may happen in the fringe zone. Re-dissolution of methane escaped from the plume and subsequent oxidation is an explanation for absence of previously present nitrate and anaerobic conditions in pristine groundwater above the plume. Stable carbon isotope (delta13C) values of methane confirm anaerobic methane oxidation immediately below the fringe zone, presumably coupled to reduction of sulfate, desorbed from iron oxide. Methane must be the principle reductant consuming soluble electron-acceptors in pristine groundwater, thereby limiting NA for other solutes including organic micro-pollutants at the fringe of this landfill leachate plume.     

Rates and processes affecting As speciation and mobility in lake sediments during aging

Sediments from an arsenic(As) contaminated groundwater vent site were used to investigate As( Ⅲ) binding, transformation and redistribution in native and iron oxide amended lake sediments using aging spiked batch reactions and a sequential extraction procedure that maintains As(V) and As( Ⅲ) speciation. In the native sediments, fractionation analysis revealed that 10% of the spiked As( Ⅲ) remained intact after a 32-day aging experiment and was predominantly adsorbed to the strongly sorbed(NH_4H_2PO_4 extractable) and amorphous Fe oxide bound(H_3PO_4 extractable) fractions. Kinetic modelling of the experimental results allowed identifying the dominant reaction path for depletion of dissolved As( Ⅲ) to As( Ⅲ)absorbed on to the solid phase, followed by oxidation in the solid phase. Arsenite was initially adsorbed primarily to the easily exchangeable fraction((NH_4)_2SO_4 extractable), then rapidly transformed into As(V) and redistributed to the strongly sorbed and amorphous Fe oxide bound fractions. Oxidation of As( Ⅲ) in recalcitrant fractions was less efficient. The iron oxide amendments illustrated the controls that iron oxides can have on As( Ⅲ) binding and transformation rates. In goethite amended samples As( Ⅲ) oxidation was faster and primarily occurred in the strongly sorbed and amorphous Fe oxide bound fractions. In these samples,19.3 μg Mn was redistributed(compared to the native sediment) from the easily exchangeable and crystalline Fe oxide bound fractions to the strongly sorbed and amorphous Fe oxide bound fractions, indicating that goethite may act as a catalyst for Mn(Ⅱ) oxidation, thereby producing sorbed Mn( Ⅲ/Ⅳ ), which then appears to be involved in rapidly oxidizing As( Ⅲ).     

Uncertainties related to the identification of the marginal energy technology in consequential life cycle assessments

When performing life cycle assessment (LCA) assumptions regarding the energy use are often decisive for the outcome. In this paper, current approaches of identifying marginal electricity and heat technologies for consequential LCAs are challenged. The identification of marginal energy technologies is examined from three angles: The marginal electricity technology is identified in Danish historical and potential future energy systems. The methods of identifying and using marginal electricity and heat technologies in key LCA studies are analysed. Finally, the differences in applying energy system analysis and assuming one marginal technology are illustrated, using waste incineration with energy substitution as a case. The main problem with the current approach is the use of one single marginal technology. It is recommended to use fundamentally different affected technologies and identify these in several possible and fundamentally different future scenarios. If possible, the affected technologies should also be identified based on energy system analyses considering the technical characteristics of the technologies involved. Some results in this paper may be applicable to other affected technologies than energy.     

Assessing the risk of N leaching from forest soils across a steep N deposition gradient in Sweden

Nitrogen leaching from boreal and temporal forests, where normally most of the nitrogen is retained, has the potential to increase acidification of soil and water and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. In parts of Sweden, where the nitrogen deposition has been intermediate to high during recent decades, there are indications that the soils are close to nitrogen saturation. In this study, four different approaches were used to assess the risk of nitrogen leaching from forest soils in different parts of Sweden. Nitrate concentrations in soil water and C:N ratios in the humus layer where interpreted, together with model results from mass balance calculations and detailed dynamic modelling. All four approaches pointed at a risk of nitrogen leaching from forest soils in southern Sweden. However, there was a substantial variation on a local scale. Basing the assessment on four different approaches makes the assessment robust.     

Sorption of thallium(I) onto geological materials: influence of pH and humic matter

The sorption behaviour of the severely toxic heavy metal thallium (Tl) as a monovalent cation onto three representative materials (goethite, pyrolusite and a natural sediment sampled from a field site) was examined as a function of pH in the absence and presence of two natural humic acids (HAs), using ²⁰⁴Tl(I) as a radiotracer. In order to obtain a basic understanding of trends in the pH dependence of Tl(I) sorption with and without HA, sorption of HAs and humate complexation of Tl(I) as a function of pH were investigated as well. In spite of the low complexation between Tl(I) and HAs, the presence of HAs results in obvious alterations of Tl(I) sorption onto pyrolusite and sediment. An influence on Tl(I) sorption onto goethite was not observed. Predictions of K_d (distribution coefficient) for Tl(I) on goethite in the presence of HAs, based on a linear additive model, agree well with the experimental data, while a notable disagreement occurs for the pyrolusite and sediment systems. Accordingly, it is suggested that HAs and goethite may act as a non-interacting sorbent mixture under the given conditions, but more complex interactions may take place between the HAs and the mineral phases of pyrolusite or sediment.     

Trace metal uptake by tropical vegetables grown on soil amended with urban sewage sludge

Trace metal uptake was measured for tropical and temperate leafy vegetables grown on soil from an urban sewage disposal farm in the UK. Twenty-four leafy vegetables from East Africa and the UK were assessed and the five vegetable types that showed the greatest Cd concentrations were grown on eight soils differing in the severity of contamination, pH and other physico-chemical properties. The range of Cd concentrations in the edible shoots was greater for tropical vegetables than for temperate types. Metal uptake was modelled as a function of (i) total soil metal concentration, (ii) CaCl₂-soluble metal, (iii) soil solution concentration and (iv) the activity of metal ions in soil pore water. Tropical vegetables were not satisfactorily modelled as a single generic ‘green vegetable’, suggesting that more sophisticated approaches to risk assessment may be required to assess hazard from peri-urban agriculture in developing countries.     

Environmental evaluation of municipal waste prevention

Waste prevention has been addressed in the literature in terms of the social and behavioural aspects, but very little quantitative assessment exists of the environmental benefits. Our study evaluates the environmental consequences of waste prevention on waste management systems and on the wider society, using life-cycle thinking. The partial prevention of unsolicited mail, beverage packaging and food waste is tested for a "High-tech" waste management system relying on high energy and material recovery and for a "Low-tech" waste management system with less recycling and relying on landfilling. Prevention of 13% of the waste mass entering the waste management system generates a reduction of loads and savings in the waste management system for the different impacts categories; 45% net reduction for nutrient enrichment and 12% reduction for global warming potential. When expanding our system and including avoided production incurred by the prevention measures, large savings are observed (15-fold improvement for nutrient enrichment and 2-fold for global warming potential). Prevention of food waste has the highest environmental impact saving. Prevention generates relatively higher overall relative benefit for "Low-tech" systems depending on landfilling. The paper provides clear evidence of the environmental benefits of waste prevention and has specific relevance in climate change mitigation.     

Green tax reform,endogenous innovation and the growth dividend

We study theoretically and numerically the effects of an environmental tax reform using endogenous growth theory. In the theoretical segment, mobile labor between manufacturing and R&D activities, and elasticity of substitution between labor and energy in manufacturing lower than unity allow for a growth dividend, even if we consider preexisting tax distortions. The scope for innovation is reduced when we consider direct financial investment in the lab, or elastic labor supply. We then apply the core theoretical model to a real growing economy and find that a boost in long-run economic growth following such a carbon policy is a possible outcome. Redistribution of additional carbon tax revenue by lowering capital taxation performs best in terms of effciency measured by aggregate welfare. In terms of equity among social segments the progressive character of lump-sum redistribution fails when we consider very high emissions reduction targets.     

A proposal of an indicator for quantifying model robustness based on the relationship between variability of errors and of explored conditions

The evaluation of biophysical models is usually carried out by estimating the agreement between measured and simulated data and, more rarely, by using indices for other aspects, like model complexity and overparameterization. In spite of the importance of model robustness, especially for large area applications, no proposals for its quantification are available. In this paper, we would like to open a discussion on this issue, proposing a first approach for a quantification of robustness based on the variability of model error to variability of explored conditions ratio. We used modelling efficiency (EF) for quantifying error in model predictions and a normalized agrometeorological index (SAM) based on cumulated rainfall and reference evapotranspiration to characterize the conditions of application. Population standard deviations of EF and SAM were used to quantify their variability. The indicator was tested for models estimating meteorological variables and crop state variables. The values provided by the robustness indicator (I_R) were discussed according to the models’ features and to the typology and number of processes simulated. I_R increased with the number of processes simulated and, within the same typology of model, with the degree of overparameterization. No correlation were found between I_R and two of the most used indices of model error (RRMSE, EF). This supports its inclusion in integrated systems for model evaluation.