Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Estimating rate constants of contaminant removal in constructed wetlands treating winery effluent: A comparison of three different methods

In this paper we investigated the use of three different methods for determining the rate constants for degradation of winery effluent within a sub-surface flow constructed wetland (CW). These methods comprised of using a dispersed plug flow (the Peclet) equation; a tanks-in-series (TIS) equation; and analysing the residence time distribution (RTD) directly. The last of these is described by the convolution integral (CI). We demonstrated self-similarity of the RTDs, which meant that the system's hydraulics were similar throughout the CW. We therefore extrapolated the RTD data to develop a more complete understanding of the hydraulic properties of the CW and examine how they affected the kinetics of degradation. We found that whilst both the Peclet and the TIS equation were able to predict concentration within the CW, this required the optimisation of more than one variable at the same time rendering a result that was more of a modelling exercise than a useful design tool. The CI method could be applied to predict system parameters effectively. We used it to measure rate constants of removal for both ethanol and potassium (key species for tracking the degradation/treatment of the effluent). Acetic acid, however, did not degrade implying that the CW operated aerobically. The concentration of sodium increased very slightly, indicating that it is not bioremediated/removed and that there are some minor evapotranspirative effects. The rate constant found for the biodegradation of COD was found to have significantly more uncertainty associated with it than the measurement of the rate of degradation individual components and we therefore posit that it is better to describe the processes of degradation by tracking individual components rather than lumped parameters.     

An IT perspective on integrated environmental modelling: The SIAT case

Policy makers have a growing interest in integrated assessments of policies. The Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) community is reacting to this interest by extending the application of model development from pure scientific analysis towards application in decision making or policy context by giving tools a higher capability for analysis targeted at non-experts, but intelligent users. Many parties are involved in the construction of such tools including modellers, domain experts and tool users, resulting in as many views on the proposed tool. During tool development research continues which leads to advanced understanding of the system and may alter early specifications. Accumulation of changes to the initial design obscures the design, usually vastly increasing the number of defects in the software. The software engineering community uses concepts, methods and practices to deal with ambiguous specifications, changing requirements and incompletely conceived visions, and to design and develop maintainable/extensible quality software. The aim of this paper is to introduce modellers to software engineering concepts and methods which have the potential to improve model and tool development using experiences from the development of the Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool. These range from choosing a software development methodology for planning activities and coordinating people, technical design principles impacting maintainability, quality and reusability of the software to prototyping and user involvement. It is argued that adaptive development methods seem to best fit research projects, that typically have unclear upfront and changing requirements. The break-down of a system into elements that overlap as little as possible in features and behaviour helps to divide the work across teams and to achieve a modular and flexible system. However, this must be accompanied by proper automated testing methods and automated continuous integration of the elements. Prototypes, screen sketches and mock-ups are useful to align the different views, build a shared vision of required functionality and to match expectations.     

Assesment of the response of a shallow macrotidal estuary to changes in hydrological and wastewater inputs through numerical modelling

The aim of this study was to investigate the response to short-term changes in river freshwater discharges and in nutrients loadings (mainly from the treatment of urban wastewater), of the shallow macrotidal Urdaibai estuary (north of Spain), by using numerical tools. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and a water quality model were applied to the estuary, in order to better use it as a prediction tool in the study of the effects of variations in hydrodynamic conditions and in waste water inputs. The model was calibrated and verified using data measured under different hydrological conditions (spring and summer). A model calibration was carried out with field data measured during the summer, while the model validation was conducted for spring conditions. The calibration process allowed the model parameter definition, while the model validation permitted the verification of the calibrated parameters under different environmental conditions. The model results were in reasonable agreement with field measurements, in both the calibration and the validation phases. The model showed a significant decrease in phytoplankton concentration with river input increase. A study on the effects of nutrient input reduction from the Gernika Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) was conducted. It showed a decrease in phytoplankton concentration with decreasing levels of nutrient discharge. This reduction was more pronounced in conjunction with the highest river discharge. In that case, a 50% decrease for the elimination of the WWTP discharge was observed.     

Modelling the long-term consequences of a hypothetical dispersal of radioactivity in an urban area including remediation alternatives

The Urban Remediation Working Group of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) program was organized to address issues of remediation assessment modelling for urban areas contaminated with dispersed radionuclides. The present paper describes the second of two modelling exercises. This exercise was based on a hypothetical dispersal of radioactivity in an urban area from a radiological dispersal device, with reference surface contamination at selected sites used as the primary input information. Modelling endpoints for the exercise included radionuclide concentrations and external dose rates at specified locations, contributions to the dose rates from individual surfaces, and annual and cumulative external doses to specified reference individuals. Model predictions were performed for a “no action” situation (with no remedial measures) and for selected countermeasures. The exercise provided an opportunity for comparison of three modelling approaches, as well as a comparison of the predicted effectiveness of various countermeasures in terms of their short-term and long-term effects on predicted doses to humans.     

Presentation and analysis of a model simulating epilimnetic and hypolimnetic temperatures in lakes

An important factor in aquatic modelling is water temperature. This is especially true for dimictic lakes where stratification and mixing influence many processes and variables, such as oxygen conditions, lake water retention time, etc. This paper evaluates and improves an existing method to predict water temperatures developed by Håkanson ,1996 (Ecol. Model., 88:157–181). The method is incorporated in a model simulating water temperatures in epilimnion and hypolimnion. The model is calibrated and validated against an extensive set of empirical data. It is driven by readily available parameters, e.g. latitude, continentality and altitude. The predictive power, especially for the epilimnetic temperature, is such that the model could be used as a sub-model in many models concerning lake ecosystems. However, the model has only been tested for Swedish lakes covering a relatively narrow range in terms of latitude, longitude and altitude and it would be interesting to investigate if this approach also holds for other parts of the world. As an example of how the model can be used in practise, a simulation of retention of caesium in lake water, using the temperature model as a sub-model, is presented.     

根际养分活化与吸收过程的定量模拟研究进展

在论述植物根系作为养分的主动吸收槽．对根际养分生物有效性产生重要作用的前提下，本文扼要讨论了根际pH值变化、根分泌螯合物与还原性物及根际微生物在根际土壤养分活化中的作用过程，并重点评述了有关养分活化与吸收模拟模型的研究进展与发展趋势．     

A multi-component two-phase flow algorithm for use in landfill processes modelling

This paper describes the finite difference algorithm that has been developed for the flow sub-model of the University of Southampton landfill degradation and transport model LDAT. The liquid and gas phase flow components are first decoupled from the solid phase of the full multi-phase, multi-component landfill process constitutive equations and are then rearranged into a format that can be applied as a calculation procedure within the framework of a three dimensional array of finite difference rectangular elements.The algorithm contains a source term which accommodates the non-flow landfill processes of degradation, gas solubility, and leachate chemical equilibrium, sub-models that have been described in White and Beaven (2013).The paper includes an illustration of the application of the flow sub-model in the context of the leachate recirculation tests carried out at the Beddington landfill project. This illustration demonstrates the ability of the sub-model to track movement in the gas phase as well as the liquid phase, and to simulate multi-directional flow patterns that are different in each of the phases.